2020 Election

Talk is all you have left, so you might want to make it count for something.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

OK let’s not talk about polls, let’s talk about the man.


He’s a narcissist
He’s obsessed with crowd size
Runs the white house like a mafia kingpin
He’s traveled all over the world but isn’t worldly
He’s a pathological liar incapable of telling the truth
He uses his position as president for personal family gain
His administration has had more turnovers than puff pastry
He claims to have a genius level IQ, but often appears borderline retarded
The Mueller report describes multiple counts of obstruction of justice which is a felony
The Trump family and foundation is so corrupt it makes the Clinton family look like the Partridge Family
His fragile ego was on display when he stormed out of a white House meeting with democratic leaders.
He tries to appear tough but he’s weak and indecisive, and when he does make a decision he does so without thinking it through.
He feels beholden to Russia and Vladimir Putin because they helped him win the election

I could go on and on but what’s the point – he is simply without a doubt the worst president ever.

 

He was elected to take a rather large dump on congress. Its his job to be the worst possible president, and he excels at it if you ask me.

 

If we go to war with Iran I'll agree he's the worst president ever. At this point, I still think it was George Jr. But he is a terrible person and a terrible president. I just don't think Biden would be any better. At least with Trump what you see is what you get. With Biden, you still get a war with Iran, but everyone agrees it's a great thing, because he would never tell a lie. Everyone who is a centrist or right of center is leading us further down the path into a tyrannical oligarchy. We need someone left of center. A non-thug as it were.
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Not really, he changed his mind on attacking Iran.

 

This is all just a buildup to an inevitable war with Iran. "Tensions are rising" as they say. In a number of days, due to all of this terrible tension, Iran will allegedly do something really stupid that requires retaliation.

 

It depends on the polls, when they're taken, what sampling methods are uses, what questions are asked. As you say, the Romney poll was an early poll. One problem with early polling is that there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. Polls aren't infallible, but they're not chopped liver either.

 

And yet people talk about polls even now as though, well..."Only Joe Biden can beat Trump. Look at the polls." Etc. They make everything a self-fulfilling prophecy. And they rely too much on chance. One day you could just so happen to run into a hundred Biden supporters, and the next day you could run into a hundred Warren supporters. It isn't accurate.

 

A scientific poll isn't based on whomever the pollster happens to "run into" on a given day. Random sampling of the general population is essential. That's become more difficult in the era of cell phones. There is also a margin of error which varies with the sample size. And differences in polling methodology can bring different results. The Rasmussen poll, for example, is consistently the outlier in favoring Republican candidates, and had Romney slated for victory on the eve of the election. But some firms like Gallup and Harris have solid reputations, and by looking at averages of major polls, like the one supplied by RealClear politics, we can be fairly confident that we're getting voter opinions at a given point in time. Trump's approval ratings have been relatively low, but steady at a RealClear average of about 43%. He got a 7% bump after his State of the Union address, but it didn't last long, and the current RealClear average is 44.3%, with 52.6% disapproving of his performance. A recent Quinnipiac poll (June 18) shows Biden beating Trump 50-41, Bernie beating him 48-42, Warren ahead 47-43, Harris and O'Rourke 45-44,and Buttageig 44 to 43 percent. QU Poll Release Detail Reportedly, Trump's internal pollsters came up with similar results.See also RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

Will he win a second term? Possibly. He has over a year to pull it off. As for Joe Biden's "inevitability", we haven't even had a debate yet. He has ample opportunity to mess it up, and may already have done so. His gaffes are notorious.

 

Forty years of extensive and diverse research finally conclude the republican party organizes like chickens. Neurologists came to the same conclusion about our brains, while the mathematicians explained this as the result of their sheer numbers. In large numbers, it simply becomes impossible to organize more intelligently. We rely on technology to help us organize more efficiently than chickens, but often even with our technology chickens are often the best we can manage, because we are a competitive species and the size of our countries matters. The more people organize like chickens the more inflexible and reactionary they become, resisting any kind of real change, but also the more predictable.

In other words, modern science is about to make elections as easy to throw as spreading smack about the opposition, as happened at the last minute with Hillary. Chickens love smack talk, because the truth doesn't feed them, and the art of spouting smack to throw elections is rapidly becoming a hard science. Freedom of speech includes the ability to lead the idiots around by the nose, while they complain and insist they have a mind of their own and watch Fox News. I'm working on the mathematics for making bots that are 10,000x more efficient at spreading any kind of smack you prefer, and the more mindless, the easier it is to spread. Competitive professional wrestling smack talk all run by computers, means the idiots might actually catch on that they don't have to act like fucking chickens.

Current computers have the capacity of a human brain, within twenty years they will have a million times that, even if quantum computers are never developed. Modeling fucking chickens by the billions is not a problem. They can be encouraged to implode their own population, attacking each other, and the white population of the US and EU is crashing, along with the workaholic Japanese. Sometimes, its just best to pull that fucking splinter out. Make organizing like vicious chickens counterproductive, while providing more viable alternatives. AI is the future, because humanity is brainless, and insists we use AI to prove it. Disney is now working with the porn industry, so expect progress soon.

 

I find it very interesting that democrats are so quick to shit on Biden. What I see once again is them irrationally grabbing for the election in a sequential progression, like corporate landmarks, oddly enough. This attitude didn't go so well for Hillary while Bernie was being shafted. Trying to turn Biden into a "racist" is a serious judgement error. If it was trusted, it would cast a shadow on the Obama administration.

I saw a news report lamenting him for his part in the crack/powder cocaine legislation. What none of them seem to remember is who got that (8) ball rolling; black leaders and clergy. Crack was destroying their communities and the dealers were in and out of jail rapidly. They demanded that crack enforcement draw longer sentences to break the back of the dealers and those who would assume their slot as they were carted off to prison.

What nobody seems to talk about is how successful this was. Instead it has been twisted into something it is not, racism.

Democrats need to think ahead, to the long game, (hint: it's the White House). If they nuke Biden during the primaries, whom do they have left to face Trump? Warren? Harris? Buttigag? All laughable choices. I think playing the race card is seriously stupid, within your own party, it's suicidal.

 

If the American people want racism to be the central issue, they can vote for Oprah. Bidden was vice president for a reason, he's second banana material if there ever was one and could never lead a comedy team. Donald Duck is not president because the American people have subtle tastes in comedy.

 

They already did, in the form of a rookie senator from Chicago. Hillary was far more qualified, but they elected the hood ornament instead.

I saw this earlier Pete Buttigieg returns to South Bend to address community in wake of officer-involved shooting - CNNPolitics
It actually gives me a little bit of respect for Buttigieg. He's suspending his campaign to return to South Bend to deal with a police shooting. It's weird to see a politician do the right thing so readily. Maybe he's wising up to the numbers and sees his current political career as the bird in the hand.

According to the CNN story, the guy gets out of his car and approaches a police officer wielding a knife. The cop was there on reports of someone breaking into cars. Unfortunately for Buttigieg, he jumped right into the middle and said some things that only made matters worse. At one point the mother of the dead guy got in Buttigieg's face with:

"On Friday, Some of the fiercest criticism at the march came from Logan's mother, South Bend resident Shirley Newbill, who told Buttigieg that she's "been here all my life" and officials have not done a "thing about me or my son, or none of these people put here." "It's time for you to do something ... I'm tired of talking now ... and I'm tired of hearing your lies,"

This was after Buttigieg said "One thing that I want you to know is that we're serious about fixing this," and "I'm not asking for your vote, I will promise that there will be a review to make sure that there is no racism on this department."

Which was too little way too late for him.

Another person said it best:
"You running for president and you want black people to support you, and vote for you? "That's not going to happen!"

It's weird to hear Buttigieg in this article because he really does sound utterly clueless about what's happening in his own back yard. Trump would eat him alive with a simple audit of the city. The only reason I can see for him to continue running for president is to get that snazzy t-shirt the rest of the democrat candidates are getting!

 

If I can't vote for Mickey Mouse, I want a professional porn star.

 

"Porn Star" is an oxymoron.

 

In Italy, the most popular show on broadcast TV, late at night, was an amateur strip tease which could include anyone including 300lb women. When in Rome, do as the Romans do. As they say, its impossible to fake professional wrestling when its already fake, and nobody can screw you like a porn star.

 

Iran's pushing for a sweetheart deal like North Korea got.

My prediction, next season on the white house, Trump does some blustering, and then renames and resigns Obama's Iran deal.

I suppose there could be worse statecraft. Like actually listening to Bolton. My guess is Trump keeps him around because he liked The Lorax.

There is a real possibility of someone actually miscalculating and doing something that's hard to take back.

 

that's possible.

 

Exactly. Polls are snapshots of points in time. Biden's ahead largely because of name recognition.

In 2004 Howard Dean was ahead. In 2016 it was Jeb Bush. There was nothing wrong with the polls. Howard Dean went "Whew!" and in 2016 it turned out that being a provocative media whore was a great political strategy.

Polls today aren't predictive. 24 hour news may speak as if they are, but their just trying to fill as much time rehashing shit to be able to fit in advertisements for pharmaceutical companies.

 

Who do you think will be the democratic candidate though? Too early to tell, or Biden, or Bernie? I don't know, but my money's on Biden.