Will Russia or Ukraine Win the War?

I think Russia will gain and keep territory on the east and southern ports, at great cost to the strength of their military and economy. I think Ukraine will keep the west, but very damaged by the destruction and loss of seaports.

So who wins? Military equipment suppliers and government contractors hired for rebuilding, and the politicians they support.

 

There are no winners in war, sadly only losers.

 

A major (NATO/Russin) conflict although possible, is for a few reasons unlikely - tactically, logistically and sustainable
It is more likely that global economics and resources will be the catalyst for an end result.

• The conflict I think will end with an uneasy Peace

Negotiations will see both sides reaching an unsatisfactory agreement, - perhaps:-
Russia getting some, of the areas they wanted Ukraine losing some.
Ukraine allowing greater inflence within their country
Akin to a 'Berlin Wall' scenario (though more territorial than physical)
Back to the Cold war days, of NATO eyes that stare across a (changed) Ukrainian buffer zone with suspicion

 

It depends what one determines as a victory .

I think Russia will eventually win the Donbas . Despite the Western hyped media ,and whilst Russia is still making plenty of military blunders it is making progress .
These 2 maps acquired from my own thread on the conflict show progress in the East . They will wear the Ukrainian military down through sheer weight of numbers and the slowness of the West to supply Ukraine with weapons . Sure the small stuff is getting there but not the larger stuff . The Gepards which are German made antiaircraft tanks will not be ready until July . This is just one example . Russia has not yet mobilised but has a reserve personnel of 2,000,000.Its has stored tanks and other armoured vehicles scattered about at sites all over Russia .
This is one such storage facility in Siberia .



Charts showing Russian progress in the East . It is slow but its evident .

 

Yes that will normally happen .

The likelihood is a ceasefire similar to the 2016 but with a greater occupied Russian controlled territory in the Donbas Region ( East ) whereby there will be exchanges of sniper fire each day and the occasional mortar shell . For the benefit of those unfamiliar with this conflict ,it has been going on since 2014 and is not new .

 

War always reminds me of something John Lennon once said:
"Fighting for peace is like f**king for virginity".

 

Big Business always wins.

 

Is that the one at Bratsk, right next door to a gas pipe terminal ???

 

I think it is in that area but the actual location is kept fairly secret for obvious reasons.
The Russians have already began drawing on their T62 Reserve tanks as some were pictured on railcars as shown below heading towards Ukraine . I suspect they will swamp the Donbas and capture it completely by August . Then I think a ceasefire will be called .
At some stage Mr Putin will have to declare it as a war so he can draw on the reserve personnel and fully mobilise .

 

If its the same one I saw, I know exactly where it is.

 

I'm jealous

This picture has just been released showing more T62s on their way . I am amazed at some of the Western Medias views like "Russia running out of tanks " . What nonsense . This will in my view tilt the pendulum in favour of the Russians as they will over run the areas of the Donbas with weight of numbers .

 

This is an upto date chart produced by the BBC showing the extent of Russian gains in the eastern side of Ukraine. There is just a pocket to close up.

The big question is can they hold onto it an will Ukraine have the resources it needs from the West to mount a counter attack

 

In war, the “winner” is usually 1) whoever has the most propaganda to declare they won, 2) whoever blows up the most cities without getting their own cities blown up.

In both cases Russia will “win”. Even if Putin bankrupts the Russian economy & sacrifices every Russian soldier in their entire army, he still wins on both counts.