The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

I doubt any of them will admit that until Putin himself admits it. No one wants to be poisoned.

 

oops...

 

They can absorb many losses . They have the 3rd largest military force . As the media is all state controlled they can control the amount of information going to the populace .For man power they can call on their Eastern provinces as well .

That is my may concern . The army of Ukraine is much smaller and may run out of steam even though they are winning loss ratio wise.

 

Very little progress is being made by the Russians

 

A reason why Russia is losing this conflict is down to Command and Control.

It is just so poor and hasnt improved since concentrating all efforts in the Donbas Region .

This is the opposite of Ukraine were this is a strength ,in some ways thanks to intelligence supplied by the West . They know exactly where to concentrate their artillery for maximum affect and where to send the tank hunter teams armed with Javelins .

In contrast to Russia were there is no coordination between with the tanks and infantry . The infantry are reluctant to leave their armoured vehicles as they think they are safe until a javelin missile comes through the roof . No coordination between the ground forces and their air power . Its a mess .

If the Ukrainians can sustain or better their loss to kill ratio ,then they win . Its as simple as that .

 

What will the Russian people do when they find out that Putin has failed in his attempt at taking over Ukraine?

 

They will go to prison for 15 years... apparently.

 

Fighter jet porn too!

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

And speaking of General's............

 

Not for long, they haven't, if this keeps up.

This begs the question: Would Putler leave the Russo-Chinese border for example unguarded/less guarded just for Ukraine? I don't see their relationship as being that cozy.

And what about Kazakhstan? They had those fuel riots back in January. Suppose it happens again, and this time Putler couldn't spare the manpower to quell those riots. He might soon have even bigger problems to worry about, if a neighboring country of that size stops being loyal when the Kazakh rioters overthrow their leadership. Putler should think really hard before he stretches his resources too thin. Not that he's sane or anything, but...

 

Mmm, that's more like it!

 

The Russians have a reserve personnel estimated to be around 2,000,000 and an unknown quantity of stored equipment including tanks. Unlike other nations the Russians rarely scrap apart from weapons reductions agreed in treaties . They have an inexhaustible supply of resources almost. Despite what we are seeing they are not a pushover. They are making lots of mistakes for sure but we have to be careful of what we see and hear in the media as it is anti Russian as their media is anti West . The true position is probably somewhere in between the 2. For example the Western media tend to concentrate on Russian Tank losses . The Ukrainian losses for me is quite disturbing . They have roughly lost a third of their material strength since the conflict started and that's why they want the losses making good now.

The Chinese you can safely leave out of this conflict. They like their economic relationship with both the West and Russia .

The 2 big questions for me are as follows

1) At what point will the Russians give up and settle for what they have ?

The Ukrainians for me do not have the resources even including the token packages of "lethal" aid to turn this from a defensive war into an offensive war . So in my view they are relying on the Russians running out of steam and giving up .

2) How will Russia react when Finland and Sweden join NATO ? As far as I can see both countries are on course to join in summer late June ,I believe is the estimated time.

 

US Secretary of State, said yesterday, that Ukraine will still be around long after Putin is gone.

 

Yes ,however it may end up being partitioned whereby you have a Korea type situation .

The longer this conflict is drawn out the more likely the above scenario will prevail .

I cant see the USA bankrolling the Ukrainian war effort indefinitley . There will be a time when enough will be enough .

 

Some interesting bits announced as part of the UK arms supply package to the Ukraine .

The Challenger 2 tanks are indeed going to Poland but on a temporary basis until the USA can make good the numbers lost by Poland when they release some of their T72 tanks to Ukraine .

This still doesnt make complete sense to me as the Challenger 2 tank hulls are needed for them to be rebuilt as part of the Challenger Tank 3 programme . This will give the British Army a state of the art tank with using Anglo German technology and will supply many jobs in the UK . The tanks that will be released to Poland will be unstandard to the Polish Armed forces and I am guessing will be housed just in case things escalate until replaced . I dont anticipate that they will be repainted and marked with Polish national insignia .

The biggie for me which was confirmed is the Stormer Antiaircraft missile platform . This is a mobile platform the The Star Streak Anti Aircraft Missile System . This missile system has already been supplied in the defensive none mobile guise and therefor will be familiar to Ukrainian operatives . The Stormer makes the system more mobile suited to the new phase of the conflict .

This represents a big change in UK policy and is indicative that we are not far from war with Russia .

I believe this stage was reached some time ago .

 

Could be something or nothing but I think this needs to be kept an eye on .

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r...acac7dd4832b&usg=AOvVaw27HW4IbAu0Wj3MT4Sh6NyX

 

Then does the US get involved and call Putin’s bluff? I don’t see Putin using nukes unless he wants to commit suicide.

 

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