The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

Ukraine has received their first F-16 fighter jets. We'll see where this goes from here...

MSN

First F-16 fighter jets arrive in Ukraine, officials say

First F-16s arrive in Ukraine in boost to Zelensky's forces: Report

 

It's been beautiful watching Ukraine's Kursk invasion unfold. Some observations:

1. Hundreds of russian conscripts have either surrendered to Ukr troops, or they just camp idly, and won't even attempt to resist and fight.
2. chechen akhmat-units, once thought to be mad dog killers, are running away from the Ukrainians.
3. russia has asked belarus to send them more military equipment just to do... something, I guess, about the Kursk situation, showing that russia's war machine reserves are indeed running lower.
4. Ukraine has successfully bombarded russian military bases in Kursk, several rus fighter jets and helicopters for example are now destroyed.
5. Some of the Kursk civilians are actually happy to see the Ukrainians there. So much so that Ukraine has opened two way humanitarian corridors: The Kursk civilians have the option to evacuate either to russia, or to Ukraine.
6. Ukraine just keeps progressing further. After over a week now, russia has been impotent to do anything about Ukraine's progress in the area. This might change eventually, but right now, putin looks like a limp dick.

I think putin is fucked.

 

The nuclear option is being pressed on putin. Tactical nukes to finish off Ukraine. Possible Ukraine did this deliberately to provoke Russia to play the nuclear card which would draw the US and NATO in the conflict. The problem with using tactical nukes is that there is no such thing as a limited nuclear war; all war games show an escalation to strategic. Ukraine right now is playing an incredibly dangerous game.

 

4 out of 11 episodes of an ongoing Polish documentary project about the Swedes (Шведи). Older family men with beards, lots of slurping, snoring and lots of cigarettes. And of course the Russians, who are slowly decimating our Swedes. All without the eroticism of exciting young soldiers. And Napoleon Bonaparte’s insight is certainly out of place in this war: “A soldier will fight long and hard for a bit of colored ribbon.”

Thanks to the edited English (United Kingdom) subtitles, it is not difficult to follow the episodes.

 

Like hell it is. He's the one who started this war, and he could end it today by simply withdrawing from Ukraine. The Ukranians have no interest in holding Russian territory, they just want their own land back.

Seriously, the notion that putin is being provoked sounds to me like regurgitation of Kremlin propaganda.

Whenever putin is on the back foot, out comes the nuclear rhetoric. Tactical nukes wouldn't do them any good, because they don't have the equipment to exploit a post-nuclear battlefield. It's the threat of nukes that have been effective for putin in scaring off the West from supporting Ukraine.

If the lesson of this war is that a country with nuclear weapons can carry out an unprovoked invasion of its neighbor, steal all they want, kill all the want, rape all they want, torture all they want, kidnap children all they want, bomb maternity wards and children's hospitals all they want, and if anyone tries to resist them all they have to do is rattle their nuclear sabre, then any vestige of international law or international order will be annihilated.

The surest path to nuclear war isn't pushing back against putin, it's not pushing back, because if putin gets away with this, every country in the world is going to want a nuclear weapon, either because they want to invade their neighbors and get away with it, or because they'll know that the only way they can defend against being invaded is to use or threaten to use a nuclear weapon.

I'm not buying that. Ukraine is certainly trying to relive pressure on their defensive lines, and gaining a bargaining chip to get their land back. The morale boost for Ukraine and the humiliation of putin are a bonus.

Why is that after putin carries out a massive unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and Ukraine finally counterattacks, we should consider that counterattack as a provocation? Why is that when Russia holds 18% of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine's counterattack taking not even a tenth of a percent of Russian territory should be regarded as a provocation?

The dangerous game of defending themselves against invasion?

 

Already the US is blocking the British Storm Shadow missile use by Ukraine. putin could use the nuclear card. That we don't want.

 

Opinion: Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a huge strategic error (msn.com)

I stand on my opinion that the Ukranian incursion was reckless, and increases the global danger level significantly. I found this article to be excellent and mirrors my sentiments exactly. I have 20 years of military service. You don't bleed off combat equipment from important front lines to open a new front. The mission at hand is to degrade Russian forces in Ukraine and attempt to gain back territory. Second, the Russians are extremely sensitive to an invasion on their territory and that risks a tactical nuclear response from the Russians. Tactical nukes could end the war in one day with a Russian victory but the ramifications are huge. There is no such thing as a "limited nuclear war" that is a myth. All war games I experienced with my Artillery battalion showed an increment increase of nuclear weapons used all the way to strategic. Read Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen. Ukraine's incursion was reckless on many levels, one, risking a nuclear response.

 

It's just tactical common sense and doctrine. Yes, Russia was wide open and bridges were taken out by the Ukrainians, but regardless, you don't leave your front line short of equipment, ammunition and personnel.

 

@Forever Edger

I don't mean any of this to get personal or seem like an attack. I'm passionate about the issue of Ukraine's freedom though, and I get feisty about it.

The Biden administration dragging its heals on providing aid, or putting limitations on it is nothing new. It's pretty much what he's done for the whole war so far.

General Ben Hodges (retired), the former Supreme NATO commander in Europe has already spoken about this issue. They don't have the equipment to exploit a post nuclear battlefield. They wouldn't benefit from using nukes.

They'd also very likely lose the support of the Chinese, who have already warned putin not to use nukes. The US has also made clear that Russia would suffer catastrophic consequences if it used nukes.

It's clear that Russia would not benefit from using nukes. Beyond that, I've already laid out the case that allowing nuclear saber rattling to manipulate policy would be an open invitation for nuclear proliferation, which is by far the greater danger.

Ukraine has the moral right to counter attack against a country that invaded it unprovoked. There's no basis for thinking it should restrain itself from such attacks simply because putin may label it a provocation.

Whether it will turn out to be a wise move, only time will tell. It may be a gamble, but there are reasons to think the gamble might pay off.

I don't know if what the Ukrainians have done is contrary to US or NATO doctrine, but even if that were the case, US and NATO doctrine don't really apply to Ukraine. Why?

1. US and NATO doctrine is based on the assumption of having the full suite of NATO capabilities at its disposal, including air superiority, and that maneuver warfare is unrestricted. That's simply not the case in Ukraine.

2. The war in Ukraine is currently positional, and there's reason to think it will stay like that for a while

A. Both Ukraine and Russia have the ability to man long, deep defensive lines without vulnerability to being out flanked

B. The costs of penetrating defensive lines have been so costly, it's unlikely that either side would be able to exploit a breakthrough

C. Also because of the capacities of each side, they each have the ability to re-establish defensive lines in the event of a break through

3. Massing troops or armor, a necessary element for breaking through defensive lines, has so far proven untenable in Ukraine. This is not only because the lack of air superiority, but also because of the way technology has transformed the battlefield.

So Ukraine might risk some continued incremental loses, but probably not a major breakthrough. Ukraine saw the Russian vulnerability and took the rare opportunity to exploit it.

If Russia diverts forces from other areas to focus on Kursk, and Ukraine is able to establish highly defensible positions, it may serve to blunt the Russian offensive. If they can hold on to Kursk, they may be able to use as a valuable bargaining chip in negotiations.

Much depends on how things play out, but the Kursk offensive could prove to be a master stroke by the Ukrainians.

 

I do agree that President Biden has not given Ukraine actionable weapons to win this war. Giving conditions, ground rules, has not helped either. It's almost as if the aid is a token response without a clear winning strategy.

Russia has placed an emphasis on nuclear weapons, tactical and strategic, for years, including their submarines. However, it's one thing to invest in one weapon system, but it's another in maintaining, training, and miniaturizing like the US has done through research. Russian tactics and training has dropped significantly since the "Soviet collapse" investing instead in nuclear weapons and submarines including torpedo technology. Using the principle of mass with troops who are poorly trained shows how far down their readiness is.

Zelensky has stated that the intent was to create a buffer zone. The Ukranian incursion has shown one thing-a severe lack of defensive tactics and extremely poor troop readiness, training and morale.

The war should be over by now if the US was really serious in Ukraine winning.

 

Whenever Ukraine is militarily successful, the official Russian propagandists start recommending the use of nuclear weapons on television, but the Western audience does not see these revealing programs:

Russian Media Monitor
https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor

State propaganda in the Russian Federation - Wikipedia

Interestingly, the fear of escalation increases with distance from the battlefield:

“Antonio Tajani (Italian pronunciation: [anˈtɔːnjo taˈjaːni]; born 4 August 1953) is an Italian politician, journalist and former Italian Air Force officer, who has been serving as Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and Minister of Foreign Affairs since 22 October 2022. He has served as President of the European Parliament from 2017 to 2019, as European Commissioner from 2008 to 2014, and also as a member of the European Parliament from 1994 to 2008 and again from 2014 to 2022 until he was elected to Italy's Chamber of Deputies.

Following the death of Silvio Berlusconi, on 15 July 2023 Tajani was appointed secretary of Forza Italia, becoming the party's new leader.”

Antonio Tajani - Wikipedia

‘We are with Ukraine without ifs and buts. We have provided military, political and humanitarian aid, with as many as nine packages. We will host the reconstruction conference in June 2025, we are working for a peace conference. But we are not at war with Russia. What authorisation do we give, to bomb Moscow? What would be the limit? Without propaganda, we have to be serious, avoiding any possible escalation. And this we have been doing since day one.

Source

There are rumours that the Biden administration has made deals with Russia over Ukraine to help Israel, such as not transferring fighter planes to Iran. The Ukrainians are bleeding to death, so to speak, so that the Israelis can live in peace.

Source

Some Russians activists tend to be martyrs, and Russian dissidents is known to acquire this status only after many years of (voluntary?) imprisonment:





Ilya Yashin - Wikipedia

And what do Russians think about the war now?

“I was recently approached by volunteers who are looking for premises for weaving camouflage nets. It turns out that they are being kicked out of everywhere, they can't find even a small room for them in the whole city. This is the true attitude towards them.”

“That's exactly how it is. Recently I was talking to a relative living in the neighbouring Moscow region, who is surprisingly sensible, despite the fact that he graduated from the Ryazan Military Forces and once went through Chechnya. In conversations ‘about life’, not a word about the war, the main topics are ‘dacha, vegetable garden, garden, harvest, children, grandchildren, school’. It was as if there was no war, Kursk, Sudja, Rostov, burning fuel depots, oil refineries, warehouses near Voronezh, drones and missiles arriving daily in different cities of Russia. His only phrase was at the beginning of all this nightmare in 2022, that the Kremlin will clean the country of fools who voluntarily go to their deaths. Tough.”

“When I was out protesting at the beginning of the war, one grandmother jumped on me saying, ‘Do you want us to be captured and brought to our knees?’ Well, here they come. Turns out nobody cares.”

“That's absolutely true – they were fed up to the extreme. The first six months of the war we lived in constant terror and panic attacks, but it's impossible to live day after day for years without going mad. Then the survival mode is switched on and it doesn't matter where they are bombing, ours or theirs – it is all equally horrible and we are equally powerless to change it. … And we are just trying to survive, and it seems that many of us understand perfectly well that we are between two fires – hell dictatorship inside and hell condemnation outside – that everybody didn't leave, that everybody didn't kill themselves, that everybody didn't go to jail, that everybody didn't overthrow the regime, that everybody didn't stop the war, that we are such indifferent zombies. There is no way out, but there is a garden, a vegetable garden, crops, children, grandchildren, school and so on.”

Source



And here is the pessimistic view, which does not make excuses for Russia with Putin, because Putin is Russia:

“Your surprise in the question “Why there is no active group of people ready to gather and go to the Kremlin and destroy Okurk?” seems to me naive. There are such people, of course. Not many, but there are undoubtedly wonderful Russian people who hate Putin and everything he does. But they, like me, now living in Israel, understand the most important thing – it's NOT about Putin!

Putin by ALL his qualities is a trifle, a shit, a fool and a thousand other definitions in this spirit. But he has been in the Kremlin for over 20 years. And I see that the people love him! Moreover, there was no leader after Stalin who was adored more, more brightly, more shoutingly. I lived under Stalin (I'm over 80!) and the next bunch of leaders. The people simply despised most of them (and there was a reason for it!). And the only normal one of them, Gorbachev, was hated and despised. I saw it, I know what I am talking about.

And here's the paradox – love for a moron who didn't even make a career in the KGB. Why am I writing this? It's an answer to your perplexity, Grigory. Putin has earned the people's affection and faith in him because he does what is understandable, accessible and necessary for these people. Well, I'll tone it down a bit, most of it. The people and Putin are one.”

Source

Unfortunately, state and media propaganda is highly successful outside Russia as well:


Source 1
Source 2



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Moscow is trying to attract kontraktniki with high premiums. There must have been a miscalculation in the rush:

5,200,000 RUB for the first year (56,828.70 USD)
----------------------------------
1,900,000 one-off payment (20,764.30 USD)
2,520,000 (12 x monthly salary of at least 210,000 RUB = 2,295.01 USD)
600,000 (12 x Moscow bonus of 50,000 RUB each = 546.43 USD)
===================
5,020,000 RUB

Where are the missing 180,000 RUB in this calculation, that would be 15,000 per month?

2023 Russian minimum wage: 15,279 RUB = 167.68 USD

Source

If Muscovites accept, they can earn as much in one year of war with Ukraine as in 28.3 years on the minimum wage.



“Putin just wanted to boost his ratings”

“People adapt to everything and go on living. Why do most people in Russia know nothing? Because they don’t want to know. They prefer to believe they are on the good side. It’s easier that way.”

 

The miscalculation is signing up for this. The new conscripts will have minimal training and likely be dead in a few weeks.