The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Captain Scarlet, Apr 9, 2022.

  1. TwinT

    TwinT Members

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    Mark Galeotti is one of the most interesting experts on contemporary Russia, in my opinion.



    Mark Galeotti: Putin's Russia is increasingly becoming a gerontocracy run by basically 70 plus year olds, and he's 71, the current head of the FSB is 73, his recently sort of transferred Security Council Chief was 72 years old. These are people whom Putin knows, they're his generation, most of them are ex KGB, many of them come from St Petersburg. But the point is – they are all of the same generation, and therefore have a very similar mindset. It's increasingly clear that although Putin is trying to hold on to these cronies of his, he is going to have to give more and more key positions to the next politic generation, down of whom [Sergei B.] Korolev is a representative, and the interesting thing is these are different.


    They're not nice people, but on the whole they are ruthless, opportunistic, self-interested kleptocrats who want to basically steal and then enjoy the proceeds of that theft. They're not interested necessarily in some kind of grand ideological campaign against the West, so we may well see that these kleptocrats actually will be, ironically enough, pushing for better relations with the West because if you've stolen so much you want to be able to enjoy it fully.

    But it also means these are people who don't have those kind of primal gut senses of loyalty to Putin, these are not people who have spent the last 30 years socializing with him, and so forth, so with someone like Korolev, my view is that so long as Putin is solidly in power, Korolev will be a ruthless and effective guarantor of of Putin's position.

    But on the other hand, if Putin's position starts to look shaky and indeed it looks as if there may be some kind of transfer of power, I think someone like Korolev is likely to be making cost-benefit analyses as to quite who he should be supporting or not. We saw this to a degree with the Wagner Mutiny last year, so it it'll be an interesting sign of the future, and it's one of the ways in which the Putin state looks very very solid and powerful at the moment, but actually has some very deep cracks within it.”



    F-16 talk starts at 14:00

    I agree with Justin Bronk's pessimism about the effectiveness of NATO countries' abbreviated training of Ukrainians. What takes years cannot be learned in weeks or months. This is especially true of pilot training, where it will be many years before Ukraine can seriously reach the high standards required for maximum effectiveness and survivability. It is to be hoped that some other countries will send their retired F-16 pilots to Ukraine to help Ukraine in one way or another.

    Justin Bronk: “It's almost harder to train combat experienced pilots who have lots and lots of time on on MIG-29 or MIG-27, those tactics, than it is to train people from scratch. That's a feature that was found in every air force that transferred from former Warsaw Pact types to F-16, Poland for example. [...]

    The more time people have in cockpit in one system, the harder it generally is to convert them, all of which means that at a tactical level it would be astonishing if Ukrainian pilots however skilled and however combat experienced and brave and committed they are on the MIG-29 and MIG-27, it would be fairly astonishing if they were anywhere close to the proficiency levels that we would expect from a two ship lead let alone a four ship lead in a a standard NATO, particularly, American F-16 unit, especially since a lot of the course will probably been truncated a bit to speed things up.

    And at the same time the threat environment in terms of the surface to air and the air to air threat environment is not one that we would deploy F-16 into from a native point point of view, we would not see that platform even with all the US weapons as a suitable platform to kind of take the lead in that sort of threat environment.

    It would play a part in a much larger composite air operation with fifth gen fighters and lots of standoff and lots of EW [Electronic Warfare] enablement and all sorts of suppressive weapon effects, and it would certainly play a useful part in that, but F16s on its own into that threat environment, this is a jet that was designed in the 70s, it's asking a lot.”



    By now, the Perun Channel is probably familiar to anyone interested in the military side of the Russo-Ukrainian war.



    Anyone with more than a superficial interest in the personality of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the role he has been able to play in Putin's Russia will find little more rewarding than this hour-long discussion between two acknowledged experts on Russia.
     
  2. M_Ranko

    M_Ranko Straight edge xXx

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    It's been a while since I last updated on things. The truth is, now that Ukraine is getting fresh weapons and ammunition from the west again, no major changes/breakthroughs have occurred. The front lines have frozen in place. ruϟϟia makes no real progress, and in places they're getting pushed out from locations they previously took, although Ukraine's gains are pretty miniscule right now. ruϟϟia also claims small gains, but nothing that can be satisfyingly confirmed, as per usual.

    The Czech ammo initiative is now delivering. Ukraine has received first batches of the ammo Czech Republic promised to find for them. Slovakia is now officially in the game too. Slovak plants are refurbishing lot of the ammo going to Ukraine. I guess it pays to gun down your toxic prime ministers. Even Serbia, usually an ally to ruϟϟia, is now supplying Ukraine indirectly via 3rd party channels, much to kremlin's dismay.

    Ukraine has recently made several successful air strikes to temporarily occupied Crimea. Most recently the Space Surveillance and Communication Center was hit, as officially confirmed by Ukraine's MOD. Meanwhile, ruϟϟians show what big, tough, brave men they are by mercilessly bombarding Ukrainian civilian targets. In particular, ruϟϟia has targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure, predicting a difficult winter for Ukrainians for the 2024-25 winter season.

    MSN

    Institute for the Study of War

    Kremlin responds to reports Russian ally supplying weapons to Ukraine

    First shipment from Czech-led arms project arrives in Ukraine: Czech PM | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

    MSN

    Russia Targets Ukraine’s Power Grid
     
  3. MeAgain

    MeAgain Dazed & Confused Lifetime Supporter Super Moderator

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    But if trump gets elected, Ukraine is toast.
     
  4. TwinT

    TwinT Members

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    BIDEN: And then do you think he’ll stop there? Do you think he’ll stop when he – if he takes Ukraine? What do you think happens to Poland? What do you think of Belarus? What do you think happens to those NATO countries?

    [​IMG]

    Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the countries he should have mentioned. Did I miss Belarus joining NATO?

    BIDEN: We are the most admired country in the world. We’re the United States of America. There’s nothing beyond our capacity. We have the finest military in the history of the world. The finest in the history of the world. No one thinks we’re weak. No one wants to screw around with us. Nobody. […]

    BIDEN: Yeah, I would. The idea that somehow we are this failing country, I never heard a president talk like this before. We – we’re the envy of the world. Name me a single major country president who wouldn’t trade places with the United States of America. For all our problems and all our opportunities, we’re the most progressive country in the world in getting things done. We’re the strongest country in the world. We’re a country in the world who keeps our word and everybody trusts us, all of our allies. […]

    And again, you want to have war, just let Putin go ahead and take Kyiv, make sure they move on, see what happens in Poland, Hungary, and other places along that border. Then you have a war.


    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html

    Travel broadens the mind.
     
  5. M_Ranko

    M_Ranko Straight edge xXx

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    I'm certainly concerned about that possibility. The US electorate have shown themselves to be a bunch of fucking morons to even consider somebody like him. And what the hell is this kid gloves treatment that trump is getting? Anybody else would be serving 20-to-life right about now.

    Mind you, ruϟϟia has been weakened, though. Visibly so. They've lost well over 500,000 troops by now, plus a substantial amount of hardware they can't replace. Their economy is hurting from sanctions and all the lost manpower who've been killed in Ukraine, and who are no longer working in trades to improve said economy. They have a shortage of workers, and the ruble is worth toilet paper. They are in no way a serious threat to NATO anymore in their current state, since they've been reduced to begging for ammo from their super best friends forever in north-korea and iran of all places. I don't think ruϟϟia has the strength left to take the entire country, not without a long term ceasefire that would allow them the time to re-arm and train fresh troops. Therein lies Ukraine's biggest threat. If they're forced into an unfavorable/disadvantageous ceasefire that would leave ruϟϟia the time to prepare for round 2. Or, if this becomes a frozen conflict that would enable ruϟϟia to terrorize Ukrainian civilians for years to come, with no real opportunity to repair the damage done.

    Shit like this could keep going forever. Ukrainian civilians continue to suffer under non-stop ruϟϟian missile attacks. This residential building in Dnipro was struck with a ruϟϟ missile when it's not even a military target, leaving at least 1 dead and 12 injured. Just one of many attacks of this type, where ruϟϟia deliberately slaughters civilian personnel.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...idential-building-ukraines-dnipro-2024-06-28/

    Dnipro missile strike: 12 injured, five missing in Russian attack

    Imagine this shit happening somewhere else in current day Europe. It would be just unfathomable in this day and age.
     
  6. MeAgain

    MeAgain Dazed & Confused Lifetime Supporter Super Moderator

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    But Trump will try to end all aid to Ukraine and weaken NATO. In addition drop consideration of Ukraine's proposal to join NATO.

    "We tell the Ukrainians, 'You've got to come to the table, and if you don't come to the table, support from the United States will dry up,'" he said. "And you tell Putin, 'He's got to come to the table and if you don't come to the table, then we'll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.'"

    in other words give the Russians what they want or we stop all aid.

    "Putin said this month that the war could end if Ukraine agreed to drop its ambitions to join NATO and hand over four eastern and southern provinces claimed by Russia."

    "What (Trump's supporters) want to do is reduce aid, if not turn off the spigot," said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
    reuters
     
  7. M_Ranko

    M_Ranko Straight edge xXx

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    There's also more trouble looming ahead in France. Marine Le Pen's racist RN party, Rassemblement National, appears to be winning the French snap legislative elections, which were organized after that smug peacock, Macron tried to save face when his party lost in the European elections held a few weeks earlier. Pro-ruϟϟia racists are now running the show in France, and the RN is notoriously against supporting the Ukrainians. This is big, because France is one of the 3 big key players in the EU. They have a lot of sway.

    See, people, this is how nazis take power. First the rich, like Macron here, fuck things up with their selfish, self-serving policies that are detrimental to the working class and the poor. The working class and the poor get fed up with being treated like chumps and suckers, so they become politically active and start voting in droves. But because too many of them really are chumps and suckers with no idea what they're even voting about, and who they're supporting, they start supporting the far-right populist groups with the boldest claims, and the prettiest lies. Once they seize the power that the idiot lemmings just handed to them, you'll start seeing the purges, and the consolidation of power to the fascist populists, who will then proceed to taking over everything. At this point it's too late to go back even if you start regretting the outcome, and the only way to return to normalcy is to start taking out the key players in the high positions by force, because they're not gonna step down quietly anymore, because they don't have to anymore. And this is usually a messy process that brings misery to all. See Hitler and the end of Nazi Germany. Wasn't pretty.

    And this is why austerity and any sort of political right wing "reforms" to worker's rights are a bunch of bullshit. Because it's always the first step towards angering the voters, and driving them into acting irrationally, where they then begin to vote against their own best interests, playing right into the next would be nazi group's hands.

    But I digress. Back to Ukraine.
     
  8. M_Ranko

    M_Ranko Straight edge xXx

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    Last edited: Jun 30, 2024
  9. wooleeheron

    wooleeheron Brain Damaged Lifetime Supporter

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    Nobody's publishing much on the Ukraine suddenly, because its WWIII, and Putin is struggling to find anyone interested in his nuclear missiles.

    Russia is a disaster, China is now officially a disaster, and the war is dragging on by inertia alone. Sadly, until Xi figures out what he wants to do, Putin will continue to become famous, for killing more Russian solders than anyone alive.
     
  10. newbie-one

    newbie-one one with the newbiverse

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    It's been suggested that Macron called the snap elections because letting his opponents take power would expose them as incompetent. If he can't get much done now, he's not necessarily worse off. That's the claim at least.
     
  11. TwinT

    TwinT Members

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  12. TwinT

    TwinT Members

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    NATO seen favorably in most member nations surveyed






    Michel Onfray - Wikipedia

    The claim that the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) is fascist is false, but this was true of Jean-Marie Le Pen's National Front (Front National, FN). There are currently three camps in France, an EU camp, a sovereignist France camp and an Islamo-left camp centred on La France Insoumise (LFI) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The parties that want mass immigration and do not want to discuss it claim, as elsewhere, that the voters must now defend democracy against the fascists. This is particularly funny when it comes from leftists who (rightly) believe that democracy does not exist. If there is anything worth fighting politically in France and elsewhere in the EU, it is Islamo-leftism.

    Things are indeed looking bad for Ukraine, as the LFI is just as pro-Putin as the RN.

    Islamo-leftism - Wikipedia
    La France Insoumise - Wikipedia

    A National Rally government is now the best of bad economic options for France



    The director of one of the larger Museums of Resistance and Deportation told me that perhaps 2 per cent of the population were in the Resistance, and that “everyone had a different reason” for their resistance.

    List of French Resistance museums and memorials - Wikipedia
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2024
  13. wooleeheron

    wooleeheron Brain Damaged Lifetime Supporter

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    NATO has always been more popular in other countries, because the US pays half the damn bills. The EU let their own military go to the point where they could not fight their way out of a wet paper bag, but they invested heavily in longer term infrastructure, bridges and tunnels, and now the EU is in pretty good shape to make a shit load of money off weapons. Putin's threats are about as credible as his army, but enough to drum up more business.

    Where this train wreak is going is anybody's guess, but the next scientific revolution might shake everything up a bit.
     
  14. M_Ranko

    M_Ranko Straight edge xXx

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    ruϟϟian cocksucking motherfuckers launched a massive missile barrage against targets all over Ukraine in broad daylight. Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital in Kyiv was among the targets they hit. Casualties in the double digits, including little kids, and wounded in the triples.

    Russian forces launch devastating missile strike on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/08/...trike partially,be trapped beneath the rubble.

    Ukraine says at least 31 people killed, children's hospital hit in major Russian missile attack

    Russia Strikes Children’s Hospital in Deadly Barrage Across Ukraine

    Which is why it's preposterous that ruϟϟia is coming out with yet another one of their delusional, worthless peace plan proposals with completely unacceptable terms. Another paper slip they can use to wipe their asses with.

    Putin’s ‘Alternative’ Peace Plan – Reality or Just More Disinformation?

    Well-known journalist publishes Russian version of "peace plan": details - Ukrainian Komersant

    So I'm happy to announce that ruϟϟia is officially a shithole that is no longer even a top 10 economy. "The income of Russian companies fell by a third: minus 36% for 2023."

    Russia dropped out of the top ten largest economies in the world - details - Freedom.

    Russia drops from top ten largest economies worldwide.

    Germany is ready to accept children from the destroyed Okhmatdyt hospital.

    Germany is ready to accept children from Okhmatdyt: details - Ukrainian Komersant

    UK announced a new aid package including Brimstone missiles, small boats, AS-90, artillery ammunition and barrels.

    UK to supply Ukraine with more AS-90 howitzers, Brimstone anti-tank missiles

    The useless, bedwetting pussies at the UN Security Council, who are worthless and never do anything to earn their pay, will meet on July 9 to discuss the ruϟϟian missile attack on Kyiv's Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital. Because that's all they can do: Talk.

    UN Security Council To Discuss 'Massive' Russian Attack That Killed Dozens At Children's Hospital

    Poland is developing a plan for shooting down muscovite missiles in Ukrainian airspace that are flying in the direction of Poland.

    Ukraine strikes security deal with Poland – POLITICO
     
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  15. wooleeheron

    wooleeheron Brain Damaged Lifetime Supporter

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    Putin has lost it, what little brains he had left finally gave up the ghost. His economy is falling apart, along with the Chinese, and his dream of destroying NATO has only encouraged NATO to expand to more wealthy countries. NATO has been struggling for years, with Canada refusing to pay their dues, the US paying half the bills, and the EU letting their military go all to hell but, Putin and the Chinese have ensured NATO could eventually replace the UN. Who needs the UN? When you've got China and Russia for enemies!
     
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  16. M_Ranko

    M_Ranko Straight edge xXx

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    russian pilot felt a sting in his heart, and leaked the names of the people responsible for ordering and carrying out the bombing of Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt children's hospital.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/horrified-russian-pilot-dobs-30-33223232

    Ukrainian media claims data from Russian pilot on strike at Okhmadyt hospital - Euromaidan Press

    Russian pilot "ratted out" his GUR colleagues after strike on Okhmatdet - source | УНН

    Czech foreign minister calls ruϟϟians "the dregs of humanity".

    Czech minister calls attackers of Kyiv hospital 'dregs of humanity'

    Keir Starmer of the UK: Ukraine can use Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets on the territory of the ruϟϟian piece of shit federation.

    Keir Starmer gives go-ahead for British missiles to be used in strikes against targets inside Russia

    MSN

    The transfer of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine has begun - Blinken. Norway will donate six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine this year

    NATO Allies Begin Transfer of F-16 Jets to Ukraine

    NATO allies begin transfer of F-16s to Ukraine as leaders meet in US

    MSN

    Norway to Donate Sea King Helicopter Spare Parts to Ukraine

    CNN: ruϟϟia tried to assassinate the CEO of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. US, German agents foiled the plot.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/us-germany-foiled-russian-assassination-plot/index.html

    Russia believed to be behind plot to assassinate Europe’s top defence boss

    ruϟϟia adds Yulia Navalnaya, wife of the late Aleksei Navalny, to their made up fantasy list of terrorists and extremists.

    Russia Adds Yulia Navalnaya To List Of Terrorists, Extremists
     
  17. TwinT

    TwinT Members

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  18. M_Ranko

    M_Ranko Straight edge xXx

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    ruϟϟia withdrew its last warship from Crimea.

    Russia's navy pulled its last patrol boat from Crimea, Ukraine says, after getting pummelled for months

    Uraltransmash, the only producer of self-propelled howitzers in ruϟϟia, is on fire.

    Fire engulfs artillery factory deep inside Russia

    north korean official drowned during moscow visit, say ruϟϟian media.

    North Korean official drowned during Moscow visit, say Russian media

    Houthis attacked two tankers with moskovite oil.

    Houthi Attack Damages Shadow Fleet Tanker Carrying Russian Oil

    Hehee, heehehehee. 1.5 GigaWatt electricity shortage in Rostov oblast and other ruϟϟian regions.

    Russia: Power outages affecting southern regions as of evening July 16

    Ukraine to build an ammo and rifles factories in cooperation with Czechia.

    Czechia and Ukraine to jointly produce ammo and rifles

    Germans, however, are planning to be completely useless. Again. Germany slashes Ukraine funding in savings push.

    Germany slashes Ukraine funding in savings push – POLITICO.
     

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