The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

I'm sure this is gonna go down well... (Said he, sarcastically)
"Putin no longer signs pardons for prisoners who are sent to war from Russian prisons." I wonder how many will volunteer after this?

Russia Phases Out Pardons for Convicts Who Fight in Ukraine – BBC Russian - The Moscow Times

US to adopt a new strategy with their Ukraine aid. Plans to win back lost territory now abandoned (Washington Post). It seems that a North-Korea/South-Korea and East-Germany/West-Germany type of split and divide of Ukraine is now the most anticipated result. Unless, of course, ruSSia drains itself and breaks down so badly, they can't hold on to the land they stole anymore. Here's to hoping for another Afghanistan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/26/ukraine-war-plan-biden-defense/

Washington Post: Biden administration working on new strategy to support Ukraine | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Washington Post: US war plans for Ukraine don't foresee retaking lost territory

Several major Ukrainian state organizations reported cyber attacks on their systems.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...e-run-bodies-report-cyber-attacks-2024-01-25/

Ukrainian hackers responded in kind and wrecked the servers of one IPL Consulting.

Military intelligence claims cyberattack on IT company providing services to Russian defense industry

ruSSia's "rainy day fund" keeps hemorrhaging money uncontrollably. Their pension fund keeps melting quite fast.

Russia has spent half of its “rainy-day fund” during invasion of Ukraine

The russian language article by Meduza though does make mention that, according to Anton Siluanov, the ruSSian minister of finance, they still have tricks left up their sleeve to stabilize the fund if need be.

За два года войны Россия потратила половину денег из главной «кубышки» — Фонда национального благосостояния. У страны что, скоро закончатся ресурсы «на черный день»? — Meduza

 

ruSSia loses another Su-34.

Military: Ukraine downs Russian Su-34 jet over Luhansk Oblast

Military: Ukraine downs Russian Su-34 jet over Luhansk Oblast

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced on the left bank of the Kherson region, Operational Command South spokeswoman Nataliya Humenyuk reports.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1752034870543417508

Ukrainian Armed Forces Advance, Expand Bridgeheads On Dnipro Left Bank

Hungary either cooperates with Ukraine aid, or watches their economy flush down the drain.

Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is getting ready to sack General Valeriy Zaluzhny. Relationship supposedly very strained.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to replace Ukraine’s top general

Zelensky seeks to remove Ukraine’s top general

ruSSian internet experiencing widespread service disruptions across the nation.

Russian Internet users report service disruptions amid ‘massive outage’ in Russia-specific domain — Meduza

Интернет переключают на защиту (in russian)

 

Is this a pacifist Russian drama student parodying a Russian patriot? Or is it a Russian patriot who knows why he doesn't mention theft (especially of washing machines), robbery and rape?

If only Vladimir Vladimirovich could manage to buy 100,000 legionnaires from just a few dictatorships each, a lot would be achieved. Russians don’t like foreigners who look like foreigners?

“Finally, the author [Elizabeth M. F. Grasmeder] offers a detailed and insightful discussion of legionnaire recruiting in Nazi Germany during World War II, a case study that seems particular appropriate given the intense Nazi rhetoric on the supposed loyalty, patriotism, and inherent value of the German citizen, who was specifically identified in self-proclaimed racial terms. Through a careful and effective analysis of a vast array of historical sources, the author shows how the German Army, which in 1939 was an exclusionary citizens’ force, gradually started to embed in its ranks foreigners from Western Europe, then enlarged the recruiting activity to Eastern Europeans, and in 1945 became a war-machine that deployed every non-German it could find.” (Matteo C.M. Casiraghi)​

Moscow’s Search for Foreign Recruits Reveals Its Growing Desperation - War on the Rocks

Is Volodymyr Zelenskyy totally naive, or is he trying to improve the supply of Ukrainian soldiers with the help of Eurosceptic parties in Western Europe, who will not miss the opportunity to rant against the scandalous financial support of Ukrainian draft dodgers?

How can a president be so simple-minded as to believe that Western European governments can divert their welfare payments to the (notoriously corrupt) Ukrainian state so that Ukraine can then decide how to spend them? Was Zelenskyy's naivety also the cause of the nonsensical counter-offensive that was bound to fail?

The Ukrainian Pravda writes:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would like the social aid money distributed to Ukrainian refugees by various European countries to instead be added to the Ukrainian budget, and for the country itself to distribute it among these people. The President believes that such an approach would support the Ukrainian economy.

Source: Zelenskyy, in an interview with Germany's regional public-service broadcaster ARD

Details: The journalist noted that about 200,000 men of conscription age had left Ukraine for Germany alone, and asked whether the German government should consider reducing social assistance to such men so that the money saved could be used to support Ukraine.

Quote from Zelenskyy: "If the government wants to help Ukrainians, that is admirable - for example, someone who has left the country for Germany and is living there, receiving money from them. And we thank you for supporting our citizens. But sometimes, people receive support from both [their new country of residence] and [Ukraine]. Well, that happens. I'm not talking specifically about Ukrainians in Germany here, but outlining general ideas. And that's why I've always said that it would be much better for us if Germany supported Ukrainians by adding money to the Ukrainian budget. Then, Ukraine would redistribute this money depending on where this person is located."

Details: He explained that currently, part of Ukraine's money remains in Europe because when people fled their homes from the war, they took their money with them. Then, when Europe began aiding Ukrainian refugees, the money that went to support Ukrainians stayed abroad and flowed into other states’ economies.

"In the end, our money left, and European money remained where Ukrainian citizens stayed. [And it's] outside the Ukrainian territory. I have no qualms [about this]. I just wanted us to keep this fact in mind. When the world talks about financial support for Ukrainians, I would like to remind them where most of the money ends up," Zelenskyy noted.

More details: Meanwhile, he pointed out that the decision to support Ukrainians was a personal decision of Germans and Germany.

He also rejected generalisations about Ukrainian refugees, including men. As he said, "there are many different factors at play here; people left for various reasons and [some military-age men] were granted official permission to exit, in addition to people of non-mobilisation age, those who left earlier and those in higher education [most of whom are exempt from the draft]."

The President also added that he is very grateful to those Ukrainians who are returning home, working, paying taxes, boosting the economy and helping Ukraine's Armed Forces.

He stated that "[German Chancellor] Olaf Scholz cannot take someone and send them back [to Ukraine] or expel them from Germany".

"We must act according to the law even regarding [illegal emigrants]," Zelenskyy concluded.

Source: Zelenskyy: Ukraine’s nearly million-strong army encounters Russian casualties in Avdiivka​

Another useful source of information about Russia, although Konstantin Samilov is no longer inside Russia:

INSIDE RUSSIA
https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA/videos

 

Hungary has backed off. Ukraine gets the 50 billion euros financial aid package from the EU.

EU agrees on new €50 billion aid package for Ukraine, as Hungary drops veto threat

EU Leaders Reach Deal On Ukraine Aid As Hungary Drops Demands

Ukraine scuttles another ruSSian warship, the Tarantul-class Ivanovets missile corvette.

Ukraine Claims It Sank Another Russian Warship In Crimea

Military intelligence: Russian missile ship sunk off occupied Crimea

Armenia joins ICC, thus becoming yet another country where vladolf putler can be arrested.

https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/armenia-joins-icc-rome-statute

Armenia formally joins international criminal court in snub to Russia

 

Don't fly in ruSSia. Their planes are now dropping from the skies due to lack of (sanctioned) spare parts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/16/russia-air-travel-danger-sanctions/

Avdiyivka is a fucking dumpster fire. Any US republican still withholding aid for Ukraine is a goddamned putin ally and a traitor to the west. The EU did its part, now America must do theirs.

'The Situation Is Critical': What The Looming Fall Of Avdiyivka Says About Ukraine's Battlefield Mood

A Ukrainian Brigade Ran Low On Ammo. That, Plus Some Bad Weather, Was All The Advantage Russian Troops Needed To Breach Avdiivka.

 

Canada is about to decommission 83,000 old rockets. Ukraine is asking to have them instead in a proposal to conveniently save Canadian tax payers some money.

Exclusive: Ukrainian general wants Canada’s 83,000 decommissioned rockets | Globalnews.ca

Ukraine wants 83,000 rockets Canada plans to demolish

 

"We have no interest in Poland, Latvia, or anywhere else. Why would we do that? We simply don't have any interest. It's just threat mongering. It is absolutely out of the question," he added.

Wikipedia:

In 1994 Nevzorov was a vocal supporter of the initiation of the First Chechen War. In 1997 he wrote and directed the TV film Chistilishche ("Purgatory") about the Chechen war, co-produced with Boris Berezovsky and released in March 1998. As the Chechen War dragged on, his views changed and he became skeptical of Russian imperialism. He regretted his past nationalist positions, and said in 2015 about his involvement in Nashi:

I experimented with fascism in laboratory, soft forms. I don't have to spend my whole life following ideas whose delusion has become obvious to me. […]​

In 2012, Nevzorov supported Vladimir Putin during his presidential campaign, and was his authorised representative. In 2014, however, Nevzorov opposed the Russian annexation of Crimea.

Source: Alexander Nevzorov - Wikipedia

Nevzorov writes:

Tucker Carlson's visit brought passions to a boil. The liberal public, as well as the emigration, is panicking and panting.

The Russian Federation, on the other hand, is jubilant that a "whole American" has honoured its dictator with his attention. The nativeness of this reaction is fascinating. As is the fact that the natives recognize the world hierarchy. A "sovereign and multipolar" country would not have to crawl so blatantly on its belly in front of a "Pindo" [invective: American] who deigned to notice its leader.

The leader himself, in anticipation of the visit of "even an American", cleaned his feathers, washed himself thoroughly and raked up the pigsty in the Kremlin jungle. The remains of half-eaten enemies were shovelled into the pantry. Blood and vomit washed up.

Putin himself has nothing new to say. He has a stable persistence. His pathology is visible to the naked eye. The world will again, for the thousandth time, see a phenomenally deceitful, boastful and self-righteous liar.

One can understand Carlson. A talking hyena is an extremely interesting subject to film and interview. Yes, Carlson will probably be eternally cursed by the EU for this prank. Sanctions and denunciations will follow. But what the Kremlin savages paid him for "talking to an American" will be enough for Tucker and his grandchildren.

In short, it is definitely not worth worrying about.

Source: НЕВЗОРОВ

I disagree. The defeatist camp got the much-desired message of peace: there is no reason to support Ukraine with money and weapons, and just to be on the safe side, the old dictator threatened with nuclear war in the event of the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine.

“To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal” — Henry Kissinger

 

Norway to provide more NASAMS to Kyiv.

Norway provide more NASAMs to Ukraine

Norway plans to deliver additional NASAMS air defenses to Ukraine

Zaluzhnyi and Budanov named Hero of Ukraine.

Zelensky grants Hero of Ukraine award to Zaluzhnyi, Budanov

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...army-chief-zaluzhnyi-hero-ukraine-2024-02-09/

 

Is Elon Musk a traitor who breaks ruSSian sanctions by double dealing with both sides? According to Ukraine, ruSSia has somehow gotten their hands on the SpaceX satellite internet system.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-using-musks-starlink-at-the-front-line-ukraine-says-516701f0

Russia using Musk’s Starlink, Ukraine army intelligence says – POLITICO

Ukraine Claims It Has Proof Russian Troops Use Starlink—Which SpaceX Denies

And if this isn't Trump siding with the enemy and acting like a traitor, I don't know what is. "Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies".

Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t pay up – POLITICO

Trump says he would 'encourage' Russia to attack Nato allies who do not pay their bills

Trump draws backlash after saying he'd let Russia attack NATO countries he deems 'delinquent'

I see it's been a week of traitors, turncoats and backstabbers.

 

Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump said that while president he told NATO leaders that he would “encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want” to alliance members that are "delinquent" in meeting the group’s spending targets.

“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?'” Trump recalled during the rally. “I said, ‘You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent.’ He said, ‘Yes, let’s say that happened.’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”

The remarks seem to suggest that Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, might not abide by NATO’s collective-defense clause for members that haven't paid enough.

Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t pay up – POLITICO​

Donald J. Trump has once again succeeded in triggering a worldwide media response with just a few words in a speech. Did he perhaps fabricate the story? Like most commentators, he is not bothered by the fact that NATO members are not contractually obliged to spend a certain percentage of their gross national product on defence.

Each NATO member does what it pleases in the event of an armed attack. After all, NATO is not an insurance company that provides foreign troops in the event of damage, even if Trump would have his audience believe that. "De Gaulle once described NATO as ‘an American protectorate without even the benefit of efficient protection’”.That is more to the point. The NATO treaty itself will not force President Trump to act.

Joe Biden pretends to uphold the 'rules-based order', but in fact his simple-mindedness has driven him to the bombing of the Nordstream Pipelines, "the most serious attack on the civilian infrastructure of a NATO member state since the Second World War", which will cause a lot of trouble.

Peter Apps writes in Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO (2024):

“As treaty drafts bounced between potential alliance members and congressional committees, Hickerson, Achilles and Acheson wrote and rewrote the text to find wording acceptable to all. The most element of the treaty – the Article 5 ‘self-defence clause’ – would also prove the most contentious. As well as declaring an attack on one nation an attack on all, some earlier drafts committed all members to taking ‘such action as may be necessary to repel [it]’. Senators would not accept this, arguing that only the Senate could declare war. “As may be necessary” was replaced with “such action as it deems necessary”. This was enough to persuade U.S. lawmakers they retained their agency, but the Europeans found it weak. Achilles and Hickerson told them bluntly that if the Senate could not agree, there would be no treaty at all. ‘More than any other human being, Jack was responsible for the nature, content and form of the treaty,’ said Achilles later. ‘He insisted that it be short, simple and flexible, permitting maximum freedom of evolution’. (pp. 66-67)

NATO Treaty, Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it DEEMS necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?​

By supporting Ukraine, the American president has ensured that Russia has not been able to advance to the borders of NATO members. Most Russia specialists are of the opinion that Russia will not relinquish Crimea in the future either. A moderate nationalist like Navalny only renounced Crimea when his associates had to flee abroad and he had to quickly ingratiate himself there. The rest of the world is even less interested in the Donbas. International law? Always good if you can use it to justify your own claims. But who wants to spend hundreds of billions on it? Many voters in the USA and Europe definitely don't want that. That is why the pressure on Ukraine to come to terms with the loss of territory is increasing. The United States enabled the Soviet Union to conquer large parts of Europe. In this respect, Trump and Carlson are building on tried and tested traditions of American pragmatism.

“Folks, let’s choose the cheapest solution! If the Europeans really mean business, they can mass their troops in the Baltic states instead of just moaning about future dangers.”

 

First reported use of the 3M22 Tsirkon missile by ruSSia.

Russia's 'Ship Launched' Zircon Hypersonic Missile Strikes Ukraine For The 1st Time, Report Claims; Experts Uncertain

Analysis: Use of Another Putin ‘Wonder Weapon’ – Sign of Russian Determination or Desperation?

Norwegian intelligence warns: ruSSia gaining the upper hand.

Norwegian intel: Russia poised to seize upper hand in Ukraine

MSN

Remains of a Shahed drone found in Moldova. Undetonated explosives still inside.

Moldova Says Crashed Drone Contained Explosives; Minister Blasts Russia For 'Barbaric Attacks' On Ukraine

https://defence-blog.com/russian-kamikaze-drone-crashes-in-moldova/

ruSSia has purchased Starlink-systems via 3rd parties.

Ukraine Rubbishes Elon Musk's "Fake News" Claims; Says Russia Using Starlink Internet Via Third Countries

ruSSia hired 15,000 Nepalese mercenaries. Many died. Those who came back are no longer the same men they once were. Poor treatment was rife.

Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight its war. Many returned traumatized. Some never came back. | CNN

ISW: "Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently made marginal territorial gains in Krynky in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults.".

Institute for the Study of War

More about the "tsar train":

Vladimir Putin army 'builds 19-mile tsar train' defensive barrier in eastern Ukraine

Russia building 20-mile-long "tsar train" barrier in eastern Ukraine: ISW

The EU Council has approved a regulation allowing profits from frozen Russian assets to be used for Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...rding-russian-central-bank-assets-2024-02-12/

EU moves toward using profits from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine – POLITICO

The real incomes of Russians in 2023 have not returned to the 2013 level.

“Lost decade”: Russians’ incomes are below 2013 levels, – The Moscow Times - Ukraine Today .org

 

ruSSia issues a warrant to arrest Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of NATO member Estonia.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-kallas-watch-list-1.7113384

Russia puts Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas on wanted list

ruSSia buys its Starlink systems from the Arab countries.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ia-buying-starlink-terminals-arab-2024-02-13/

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-bu...stems-in-arab-countries-ukraine-says-a0185f55

 

Ukraine sends another ruSSian bucket to Davy Jones' locker. Landing ship Caesar Kunikov has been sunk off the coast of Crimea.

Russian landing ship Caesar Kunikov sunk off Crimea, says Ukraine

Ukraine says it sank a large Russian landing ship in the Black Sea

I feel some appropriate music is in order:

 

Navalny is dead, according to the Guardian, NPR, other sources, citing Russian prison officials.

 

Confirmed. Aleksei Navalnyi has died. Tough luck for the old chap, but I personally feel that he was very stupid to go back after he narrowly escaped death before. I expect no meaningful reaction from this, despite people now expressing their disapproval. (Please prove me wrong.)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eader-navalny-dead-prison-service-2024-02-16/

Jailed Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny dies, prison service says | CNN

St. Petersburg police is arresting Navalnyi mourners.

'More than 100' Alexei Navalny protesters are arrested across Russia | Daily Mail Online

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/more-100-alexei-navalny-mourners-32147308

Avdiivka situation dangerously critical, as Ukrainian troops retreat to safer positions. ruSSia has managed to take some Ukrainian soldiers captive.

Avdiivka Coke Plant still on fire, several Ukrainian soldiers captured

Ukrainian Soldiers Captured By Russia At Avdiivka: Kyiv

Losing Ground, Ukraine Seeks New Positions Around Avdiivka

ISW: "The potential Russian capture of Avdiivka would not be operationally significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate informational and political victories."

Institute for the Study of War

ISW: "The Kremlin is conducting information operations against Moldova very similar to those that the Kremlin used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, likely to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova."

Institute for the Study of War

Spain donates M-113 armored vehicles to Ukraine. (Spanish)

Margarita Robles participa en la reunión del Grupo de Contacto para la Defensa de Ucrania - Ministerio de Defensa de España

Viktor Sokolov has been fired from his position as the Black Sea fleet commander after the loss of Caesar Kunikov. putin mad.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...fter-latest-ukrainian-ship-attack-2024-02-15/

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...nder-fired-after-latest-ukrainian-ship-attack

Royal United Services Institute: "Russia still maintains the strategic objective of bringing about the subjugation of Ukraine. It now believes that it is winning. The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025"

Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024

ruSSia has now lost over 400,000 troops. Thousands dead or maimed just to capture one small town.

 

Indeed. Common sense is actually very uncommon.

The death of this Russian nationalist comes surprisingly late, so close to the presidential election, for which Avdiivka urgently needs to be conquered, which will succeed thanks to the Trumpists’ refusal to help. The FSB must already have all the names from the signature lists of pro-regime Boris Nadezhdin in its computers and can now provide optimum assistance in the preparations for the election.