The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

Well it has started . Russians are now drawing on some of their reserve stocks of mothballed tanks . Pictured above are T62 tanks of which were last used in the 80s . Obsolete for sure by todays standards but could be indicative of going for the old Soviet tactic of weight of numbers to gain territory . This picture was taken yesterday and on their way to the border on railway wagons/cars

Pictured below is a typical T62 tank

 

To be honest I didn't even think Kissinger was still alive - he should have stayed dead.



Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations

 

Yeah, not happening. The Ukrainians themselves will never accept that proposal, they're prepared to do this for the long term. Kissinger obviously does not understand how patriotic the Ukrainians are, and how much this means to them. The Azovstal troops in Mariupol were prepared to fight until death, had president Zelenskyy not ordered them to stand down, as he didn't want them to die pointlessly.

So, it's the age old russian strategy of sending in more and more low level shit to be destroyed, until the opposing force runs out of ammo. But, can we deduce from this that the russians are running out of their better materials, since they're now deploying old junk?

 

This is the latest war Map and showing now steady albeit slow progress by Russian forces. The West have been too slow in supplying the big stuff giving the Russians the impetus they now have .

 

Another picture showing more T62 tanks heading for Ukraine . Whilst obsolete being introduced in or around 1962 hence the "62" bit ,to me their intention is to use them in numbers following up behind and mopping up .

I am amazed at the Western Media response like "Russia running out of tanks " or "Sending in Museum pieces " when western arms supplies include former Western German Leopard 1s ( 1960s) and M113s from the US again a 1960s vintage machine used in Vietnam .

 

Its difficult trying to find material that isnt Russian Propaganda or Western Hype at the moment .However I found this after scouring a lot of material which for me gives balance and an accurate view of where we are. It highlights the problem in the Donbas and the slowness of the West to equip Ukraine with equipment it badly needs ie the MLRS artillery systems . Without this support arriving Ukraine will find it difficult to hold back the Russian tide in the East .

 

A very good chart produced by The BBC showing that Russia has nearly accomplished control of eh Donbas with just one pocket outstanding . Whether they can hold onto it is another question .

 

I am going to select more material from German news broadcaster DW and Turkish outlet TRT . These for me give a more balance on what is happening in the Ukraine without biasness .

The video by DW confirms my understanding of my concerns in the Donbas , that Ukraine is losing the war here and will get eventually pushed out as weight of Russian numbers prevails. I commented on this aspect some time ago against most of the views of western news broadcasters and is clearly happening now .

Russian Command and Control is still clumsy but it was also clumsy during WW2 but they still prevailed over a Nazi German aggressor . The Soviet Army here and the Russian Federation Army of today is a slow clumsy juggernaut with many faults and weaknesses and relies on numbers to reach its objectives. Thats why the first part of the recent Ukraine conflict went badly wrong for them as they tried to act like a NATO force using smaller numbers effectively, As a result this went badly for them and they got a bloody nose. They simply cant fight this way. Its simply not in their military DNA and they dont have the quality equipment like NATO forces have to prosecute .

I believe regrettably that Russia has learnt its lessons from the first part and have gone back to the way they know best. I also mentioned a long time ago Putin will not make the same mistake in the Donbas but the West have been too slow to acknowledge that .

Now I fear it is too late

 

To be honest, that was because Hitler was utterly incompetent as a strategist. I'm confident that the Germans could've taken Moscow in 1942, if they had just gone straight there with full force, instead of making that dumb detour to Stalingrad. The Continuation war against Finland at that time was tying up russian troops and resources to that front. Taking, or just encircling Moscow would've sent russian leadership into chaos. Stalin would've had to flee the city, thus exposing himself as weak to his forces, something that he was deathly afraid of. Finland could've pressed on from the north, taking pressure away from the Germans, who could've concentrated their full powers into defeating Moscow. Hitler also made a serious mistake, when he didn't accept the Ukrainians as allies, as that would've awarded him many fresh troops, who absolutely hated Stalin.

But I digress. Back to current events. I'm predicting another 1980's Afghanistan-type scenario, where russia stupidly pours resources into a completely foolish war that gains them nothing, until it saps them dry, leading to a collapse. Russia may be able to take land, but they won't be able to keep it indefinitely. They are in a completely new situation, where they have never been sanctioned this hard by the rest of the world. Russia cannot replace what they are now losing. Their industrial production has slowly started to suffer, when they can't get anymore parts and resources to build what they need, and this will continue to become more and more evident as time passes. This could become a decade-long conflict, much like Afghanistan was, and remember how that ended? Russia does not have the endurance to keep this war/occupation going that long with these attrition rates, while at the same time their economy is going to the shitter. In this war, death by 1000 cuts works for both sides.

 

I agree with your comments. The Germans were actually just short of 30 miles away form Moscow before it petered out. It was the severe Russian winter that thwarted the German army and obviously Hitler and his commanders didnt take note of Napoleons campaign of 1812 as the Russian winter thwarted them previously. For me I dont think any army would be capable of taking Russia and then holding it . I would classify both Napoleon and Hitler foolhardy for trying and both commanders had Yes men around them .

I also agree with your comments on Ukraine . I did say this some time ago this will be an Afghanistan 2.0 as Russia does not have the resources to tie the Ukraine down . I dont think they are going for the whole of Ukraine now but then nobody can guess the mind of Putin . I think he will settle for the Donbas which culturally and language wise is Russia in many respects and are more likely to accept Russian rule than the Western side of Ukraine which is more akin to the West . We will probably find all this out by September ,I think as things stand, unless the West gets its act together and starts sending the big stuff in more numbers and quicker. For example the ETA for the former West German Gepards ( antiaircraft defence tanks ) has been touted to July . Far too late .

 

Russia really sucks at this war stuff...

 

The pocket is beginning to close slowly by the Eastern,Central and Southern forces.

Albeit slowly,I expect the Donbas region to be in Russian hands within weeks.

 

So, the HIMARS artillery rocket system. Will it be a game changer for the Ukrainians? It was certainly enough to make the russians very butthurt.

 

As I understand it will be the US M142 system.

Its has a greater range than the Soviet designed Grad 21 system . It has a range of over 50 miles, very accurate and capable of Counter (anti ) battery fire. This is what the Ukrainians needed over a month ago . For me everything is coming too late and giving the Russians the upper hand . I still dont know what type of numbers we are talking about either . For me anything less than a 100 is a waste of time .