The cost of Brexit

VG

So let’s get this straight you think these foreseen problems are wrong because….I mean you have NEVER actually come up with any rational arguments for a Brexit been beneficial to the UK

Beside bluster and wishful thinking what have you got?

To repeat – The UK has stopped been a member of the EU but it is still part of the EU and will be until after the transition period is over, not left, just in the hall before we have to step out into cold and harsh reality.

And also to repeat – leavers repeated said that the UK would have all or at least most trader deals (and better trade deals) by the time we stopped been a member and that’s not the case.

And to repeat – remember we would have our cake and eat it I mean in the campaign many Brexit pushers said we would remain part of the EU customs union and single market, I know people that voted to leave on that basis.

So to follow on from that – where is the plan, we had multiple Brexit ideas in the campaign Norway, Canada, Switzerland, variations on all them from the softest to the hardest – oh and the idea of crashing out without a deal was ‘Project Fear’ would never happen - but never any detail, NOTHING and still NOTHING – the Europesceptics had 30 years the Brexit pushers have had 4 years and NOTHING

It’s still just bluster and wishful thinking as the country gets closer to the crunch point where fantasy comes up against reality and the unicorn falls into the meat grinder

 

They weren't foreseen problems. Those figures come from the government worst case scenario modelling from 2018 the media keeps rehashing. Those figures were only concluded if there are zero trade deals with the EU, - 7.6% to GDP, only on that condition.

That is, an FTA with US adds 0.16% only if no trade deal with the EU. If a trade deal with the EU, some where closer to +7.8%

And that was two years ago, before the full effect of the German slowdown


Doesn't seem the Tories want a free trade deal with the EU, bilateral agreements on goods and services the UK cares about are the way to go. They will get the US, and China FTAs before December, then they can pick off EU member countries one by one with side deals.

It's the smart thing to do

And then there goes your "European Project" and the festering sore that is European inequality

 

VG

Oh where to start

You then go on to say

So let’s look at that - you first say only if there isn’t a comprehensive trade deal will the -7.6% drop take place and then say you think the Brexit government should not have a comprehensive trade deal thereby causing the -7.6% drop.

And ALL the scenarios for a Brexit came out in the negative compared to what we would have had.

There is no ‘win’ in Brexit we lose whatever.

Again do you engage your brain before you post?

We have already discussed the bilateral agreements thing with the EU they are not going to allow secondary trade agreements, they are not even on the table, as you imply they would undermine the EU as an institution so why would they be?

Have you looked at the US proposals can you explain in what way they are beneficial to the UK oh they seem very beneficial to the US but to the UK?

And this is it, I don’t think you give a fuck about the UK or what happens to its people I mean you seem pretty ignorant of the issues whenever you talk about them but you do seem to have a raging hatred of the EU and the ‘European Project’. You have called it many derogatory things (here it’s a ‘festering sore’ ) the most frequent ‘insult’ been at it is ‘socialist’.

This is something I often hear from those on the far right and the neoliberal fantasists

Your hatred seems out of all proportion to its influence on you or proximity you been Australian or your knowledge of the issues which have always been wanting.

It seems to me that you have no concerns for people it’s all about some dumb ideology

 

Boris Johnson news – live: Outrage at ‘astounding’ cost of Brexit, as PM faces Commons rebellion over Huawei
Follow all the latest developments

Boris Johnson’s government has been accused of “keeping the public in the dark” over the “astounding” true cost of Brexit, as a Whitehall watchdog revealed at least £4.4bn of taxpayers’ money has been spent on preparations since 2016.

It comes as former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith leads a new rebellion over Huawei’s role in Britain’s 5G network, tabling an amendment to the telecoms bill to prevent a future role for “high risk vendors” in the UK.

Home secretary Priti Patel has been defended as an “assertive” leader who has “never crossed a line” by a group of nearly 100 allies. Amid bullying allegations, supporters signed an open letter stating: “We do not recognise the picture that has been painted of her.”

Key Points

• Billions 'thrown away' in Brexit planning, claim Lib Dems

‘Astounding’: Watchdog reveals £4.4m cost of Brexit preparations

We still don’t know what our relationship with the EU will be next year. But we do know how much it has cost getting us to this point in the process.

The National Audit Office says at least £4.4bn has been spent on the Brexit process since 2016. Government departments have shelled out the staggering sum on extra staff, external advice and advertising.

If the staff working on Brexit had been gathered in one department, it would have been the sixth largest in Whitehall.

The Lib Dems said “billions of pounds have been thrown away in a bid to paper over the Tories' Brexit mess”.

The chair of the European Movement, former Tory cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell, said the report highlighted “the astounding cost of Brexit that has been hidden from the public”.

“The lack of detail and limited data contained in the report is indicative of the secretive way that the government is delivering Brexit,” he added.

All the details here:


Boris Johnson's government has already spent £4.4 billion on Brexit preparations, new figures reveal
The 22,000 civil servants working on EU withdrawal amount to 5 per cent of Whitehall total





Government’s big infrastructure plan pushed back

The National Infrastructure Strategy – expected to see £100bn invested in the economy and tackling the climate crisis – is to be delayed.

The plan to boost was set to be published alongside the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s budget on Wednesday next week.

Whitehall sources were unable to say when it would now be published, but expected the delay to only be a matter of days or weeks.

However, Labour’s shadow chancellor John McDonnell said the delay represented “absolute chaos” in government.

“We are facing the threat of climate change and an economy at risk of recession. That’s why we desperately need an immediate start to large-scale infrastructure investment,” he said. “Delaying implementation of investment is unacceptable.”

Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, expressed disappointment at the delay but expressed confidence that ministers remained committed.

“Naturally we are disappointed about the further delay in the government’s formal response to the national infrastructure assessment, which we published over 18 months ago,” he said.


Chancellor Rishi Sunak (Reuters)

‘Imagine if we’d invested in NHS instead of spaffing £4bn on Brexit’

Plenty of reaction to the National Audit Office report showing Brexit preparation plans have cost taxpayers’ £4.4bn since 2016.

Calling for more details, Labour MP Meg Hillier –chair of the influential House of Commons Public Accounts Committee – said: “The public has been kept in the dark as to what the government has been doing.”

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Alistair Carmichael said: “Billions of pounds have been thrown away in a bid to paper over the Tories’ Brexit mess. The public have a right to know where it is all going.”

The Times commentator David Aaronovitch tweeted: “Had that figure been available and agreed in 2016 I seriously wonder if the outcome would have been the same.”

The author Gareth Powell added: “Imagine if we’d invested in the NHS instead of spaffing £4 billion on Brexit.”


More money for EU Settlement Scheme

The Home Office is providing an extra £8m of funding to help vulnerable people apply to the EU Settlement Scheme, amid criticism over the department’s handling of the project.

Charities and local authorities can bid for the cash to offer advice and support in person, online and over the phone to EU citizens already living in the UK.

The announcement comes a week after campaigners accused the government department of being “less than co-operative” in helping vulnerable citizens apply to the scheme.

Maike Bohn, co-founder of campaign group the3million, claimed some people were “struggling to apply” or still do not know about the scheme and could miss out.

Immigration minister Kevin Foster said: “This new funding means no stone will be left unturned in ensuring everyone gets the help they need.”


PM close to breaching social care promise, councils warn

Council bosses have said next week’s budget should be used to make urgent progress on the cross-party talks on adult social care – which Boris Johnson promised within 100 days of the December election.

The budget falls just 10 days short of the PM’s self-imposed deadline, with no sign of the talks getting under way.

The Local Government Association warned that without a new settlement for social care, local services in England face a funding gap of almost £6.5bn by 2025.

 

The fight to remain in the EU isn't over !!!


Pro-EU group fights to keep European dream alive after Brexit
European Movement’s Brexit Watch initiative aims to highlight impact of EU withdrawal on communities


In the aftermath of the UK’s departure from the EU on 31 January, one of the key groups behind the failed campaign for a second referendum is launching a drive to keep the pro-European message alive in post-Brexit Britain.

The European Movement’s Brexit Watch initiative is designed to gather evidence of how EU withdrawal is affecting communities around the country, with the aim of making the government and the Leave campaign take responsibility for the consequences of their policies.


As negotiations begin on the future relationship with the EU, the movement’s chair Stephen Dorrell told The Independent that the priority is not to pick over the reasons for Remain’s defeat or dream of a far-off return to the EU, but to ensure that Boris Johnson’s government is challenged to justify itself each time it takes a decision to deviate away from European values and norms.

The cross-party movement — founded by Winston Churchill and with Michael Heseltine as its president — has experienced a mini-surge in membership in the wake of Brexit, as 2,000 pro-Europeans responded to a call to show that “we haven’t gone away”.


With Brexit having occurred amid opinion polls showing majorities wanting to remain in the EU – and after an election in which a majority of voters backed parties offering a second referendum – Mr Dorrell said that millions of Britons who see themselves as European have been denied a voice in a political system where both major parties have lurched to the extremes.


Best pictures from Final Say Brexit march
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Championing the common interests and common values the UK shares with the EU will be “a key part of bringing the centre back into British politics”, said the former Conservative cabinet minister.


And, while acknowledging that rejoining the EU is a long way off for the UK, Mr Dorrell suggested that the “nationalist and protectionist” mood represented by the Johnson government may not last as long as some expect.


“For the first time since the Second World War we have a trade policy of erecting barriers to trade,” he said. “It goes against a British tradition and belief stretching back to the early years of the 19th century that open markets and level playing fields for competition are part of the process of wealth creation.

“I don’t believe it will endure, any more than Trumpian values can endure in America.

“If the question is, ‘Are we going to reverse the referendum?’, then certainly we will only get the answer I would like when a generation has passed. But if the question is, ‘Is there a more effective version of the future than Boris Johnson is offering?’, then that’s something we can put on the agenda as soon as the next election comes around.”

Pro-Europeans must be ready – both inside and outside parliament – to question each decision taken by the government as it forges new relations with the EU, the US and other powers, over whether UK interests would be better served by sticking with common European interests and values, he said.

In the aftermath of a general election that delivered a landslide for Mr Johnson’s “get Brexit done” platform, Mr Dorrell and EM chief executive Hugo Mann acknowledged that pro-European forces were “demoralised”.


Stephen Dorrell (UK Press via Getty Images)
But just one of the group’s 126 branches around the country has shut down, and the movement now counts 120,000 supporters and 7,000 paid-up members.

“We start from the principle that we are British Europeans,” said Mr Dorrell. “Despite Brexit, we are still just 22 miles off the French coast. This is our neighbourhood. At a time of climate emergency, it is blindingly obvious that the British climate is the same as the European climate. When we face the spread of coronavirus, the threat is the same for us as for our European friends.


“In a world where Donald Trump and Narendra Modi are congratulating each other for representing a set of values that don’t resonate anywhere in Europe, including in Britain, and where we see the current trends in China and Russia and the Middle East, where in the world do we find a common set of shared values? Overwhelmingly it’s in Europe.

“The EU as an institution is an expression of a set of values which are broadly shared in Britain and distinguish Europe in the modern world.”

Rather than demanding an immediate return to the EU, the single market or the customs union, the EM’s approach in the coming years will be to identify and highlight the impact Brexit has on jobs, communities and livelihoods and to encourage supporters to lobby MPs of all parties for closer engagement with Europe.


“There’s a huge constituency who voted Remain and their voice is simply not represented – definitely not by the government and, it seems, probably not by a Keir Starmer-led opposition,” said Mr Dorrell, who stood as a Liberal Democrat in the December election but stresses that EM remains a cross-party movement.

“That doesn’t mean entering the lists to argue for Rejoin. It means arguing for the common European interests and common European values that still exist now and will still be there in 2030 and 2040.”

Mr Mann added: “As a movement we want to hold the government’s feet to the fire now Brexit has happened. It feels like Johnson has a hold on the narrative now, but as we see the Brexit myths combusting in front of us over the coming months and years, we want to be there to remind the government of their promises.

“Brexit hasn’t been done. If this was a computer game, we have got to the end of level one and level two is the hard bit.”

 

The March was 5 months ago

 

Again demonstrating illiteracy !!!

 

Final say Brexit March, October 19, 2019

 

Ffs Vlad, get a hobby

 

My hobby is 'Politics' and as a side - line - baiting members or supporters of the scumbag 'nasty party' !!!

 

Well, think you are wasting your time on this subject now

You are not going to be able to differentiate between the cost of Brexit and the Coronavirus induced global recession now

I will be fascinated to see what happens, with Italy and China in particular

 

Brexit is a process

Ok there seems to be some confusions about Brexit and it should be remembered that it is a process not something with a definitive end, because it has to be remembered that Brexit was never (and still isn’t) defined.

Some what to say it is just the UK leaving the EU, but to me that is just one stage as the ramifications of leaving the EU are part of Brexit, her are what I see as the stages of Brexit

Stage One – Referendum

This was the demand for a referendum, the campaign and the vote.

In my opinion many people had already been softened up by years of anti-EU propaganda, migrant scaremongering and bamboozled by the lies of the leaver’s leadership.

Investment slowed costing millions

Stage Two -the easy bit

The withdrawal agreement was meant to be the easy bit and not meant to take that long.

Stage Three – the hard bit

The thing every analysts thought would and will be the hard bit - getting a trade agreement and few thought/think it will be as good as the one we had.

The least disruptive routes would be ‘soft’ style Brexits, basically what we have in the transition period we get the benefits of been in the EU but would have to follow its rules and have no say over them and possibly pay in more than we did as a member.

The further we get away from alignment the harder the deal will be to broker and that means the longer it will take to negotiate. A Canada type deal has been mooted but that took several years to put together.

The no-deal scenario is a misnomer as we would actually still need to negotiate a deal it’s just that we would have caused a whole load of mess walking away from the table, it’s like turning over a board game half way through then saying you want to finish the game so that everyone has to find all the cards pick up all the pieces and put them back where they were before etc, it’s a move that is likely to piss off the other players.

Dropping to WTO rules would be very problematic for the UK economy.

Stage Four – dealing with the world

Now some of this could be done during stage three but a lot of this is dependent on the outcome of stage three so that most of it will probably come after it.

Some look to a US deal but the indications are that they want the UK to basically unhook themselves for alignment with the EU27 and hook up to a US alignment. One person I know said this would make us into the 51st state, but someone else pointed out we would be more like Porto Rica, controlled by US policy but with no say in it.

Different time frames have been put on the length of this stage from 5 years to over 50 years

Stage Five – Was it worth it

Remember it was Jacob Rees-Mogg who pointed out that “We will not know the full economic consequences (of Brexit) for a very long time, we really won’t.” when pushed he said that we might not know for another 50 years. Others have put it at longer.

So the last stage of Brexit is basically an evaluation of Brexit.

Although it might end before that stage if people realise it was a big mistake and ask to re-join the EU.

 

The cost of the Brexit process so far (and not all of it)

130 billion pounds (and counting) according research by Bloomberg Economics based on the damage caused by the U.K. untethering from its Group of Seven in this period.

4.4 Billion (and counting) spent so far on preparing for what might happen in Brexit, that could have been better spent on public services

The unknown billions of pounds (and time and energy) spent by private companies preparing for what might happen in Brexit that could have been better spent on investment in their businesses.

 

No, the Bloomberg one was done on comparisons to GDP pre GFC levels in 2008 then trying to blame that lack of recovery all on Brexit

All of Europe still hasn't fully recovered from the GFC 12 years ago


And £4.4 billion over 4 years was spent on public services, government departments. A bargain compared to the £36 billion spent on EU fees in the same 4 year period

 

As for paying for EU membership well to repeat

I believe it cost somewhere close to 9 billion

But let’s put that in context - we spend:

145 billion on health

45 billion on defence

29 billion on transport

And 13 billion on overseas aid

We also contribute less (per head of population) than some other EU countries such as Germany.

For the 9 billion we get all the advantages of free trade with the EU members and with the EU trade deals with none EU countries along with a say in the regulations and policies set by the EU (unlike say Norway).

Some have put a figure of roughly £31bn-£92bn per year as the best estimate we have in terms of the additional value created to the UK economy through trade as a result of EU membership.

 

While growth globally has also cooled in recent years, the analysis by Bloomberg Economics shows the U.K. has still lagged. There is a strong historic correlation between the U.K. and G-7 countries. But they have been diverging since the vote to leave the EU, with the British economy now 3% smaller than it could have been had the relationship been maintained.

$170 Billion and Counting: The Cost of Brexit for the U.K.

VG, What the fuck are you on about now?

It wasn’t spend on improving public services it was spent on taking civil servants away from their jobs to work on Brexit - In an indication of the upheaval that Brexit caused within government, the report said no fewer than 22,000 government officials were working on Brexit

As to the fees (see above) remember the Bloomberg report pointed out that we are likely to lose more money because of Brexit that all the money we ever spent in fees over the last 50 years odd years.

 

Well some of us did know that Boris et al was a lying toe-rag when he toured the country in the 'leave' campaign's big bus, but now its been confirmed in the scumbag 'nasty party's' latest budget !!!

VG - take note of that sentence I have highlighted for you !!!

Treasury figures from Budget confirm there was no £350m a week Brexit dividend
Brexit has in fact cost every person in the UK £1,200 so far, spending watchdog says – as economy flat-lines


The Treasury has confirmed that it will not be getting an extra £350 million a week after Britain stops paying into the EU budget, despite false claims by Brexiteers during the referendum.

Britain is in fact expected to be overall poorer by £1,200 per person because of Brexit's economic drag, according to the government's spending watchdog.


The chancellor's red budget book shows the gross EU contributions saved by the UK will be around £42 billion over the next five years, rather than the £91 billion claimed under the false figure publicised by Boris Johnson in 2016.

But the money is not expected to benefit the public finances as the majority needs to be spent on British domestic replacements for EU programmes.


It comes as the government's own Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the cost to the British economy of Brexit so far at around 2 per cent of GDP a year, or about £40 billion.


"We estimate that the economic effects of the referendum vote have so far reduced potential output by around 2 per cent, relative to what would have happened in its absence," the OBR said in its analysis released alongside the budget.


"Part of this reflects lower net inward migration, but mostly it reflects weaker productivity growth on the back of depressed business investment and the diversion of resources from production towards preparing for potential Brexit outcomes."

The body continued: "Real business investment has barely grown since the referendum, whereas our March 2016 forecast assumed it would have risen more than 20 per cent by now. We expect this shortfall to be partly reversed as the specifics of the trading relationship are clarified, hence reducing uncertainty.

"But, working in the other direction, we expect the adverse effect of higher trade barriers to build through our five-year forecast period and beyond."

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics this morning show that the economy has flat-lined, even before the effects of coronavirus bite.


Britain is expected to enter a recession over the coming months, in part thanks to the effects of the virus – meaning it will be difficult to disentangle the effect of Brexit.

"The twin challenges of Brexit and coronavirus are a double whammy that will restrict our economy in both the short and medium-term," said Naomi Smith, CEO of pro-EU campaign Best for Britain.

"Our economy is resilient enough to handle one of these shocks, but it cannot cope with two simultaneously. And frankly, it doesn't need to."

She called on the chancellor to reconsider whether the government should "stick so rigidly to its arbitrary deadline for European talks in light of the unprecedented health crisis our country currently faces".

 

"The chancellor's red budget book shows the gross EU contributions saved by the UK will be around £42 billion over the next five years, rather than the £91 billion claimed under the false figure publicised by Boris Johnson in 2016."


Huh? Boris was Mayor of London/ Foreign secretary in 2016


Treasury figures from Budget confirm there was no £350m a week Brexit dividend


You do get what the article is saying right? Half the net savings because you didn't brexit fast enough, stuffed around for 3 years

 

Trump bans travel to Europe, but not UK


......because the UK isn't in Europe

 

Knuckle dragger showing his ignorance once again !!! - the uk IS (geographically) in Europe, it is just that we are no longer in the European Union.