Random Thoughts Thread #3

I'minmyunderwear · Jul 7, 2015

hotwater said:

Ok I can understand how a couple of kids in Boston can stumble across unused fireworks and blow off their hands but Devon isn’t 5 or 9 years old he’s 22

Devon Staples (22) from Calais Maine was enjoying a Fourth of July party with friends when he got the idea to place "a [reloadable] fireworks mortar tube on his head and set it off," according to a report from the [SIZE=14.6666669845581px]Bangor Daily News[/SIZE]. He had allegedly been drinking with friends at the outdoor party prior to the incident.

[SIZE=11pt]Maine state police said that friends tried to stop Devon Staples from performing the fatal stunt, but they failed. When the man lit the fireworks, he died instantly. Spokesman for the Maine Department of Public Safety Stephen McCausland explained[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Hotwater[/SIZE]
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hotwater · Jul 7, 2015

Darwin Awards ,...lol...

DeAndre you can't hit a woman even if she throws the first punch....

https://youtu.be/hUbTEprXsDw

Hotwater

IamnotaMan · Jul 8, 2015

Sitka said:

I will respectfully disagree.

Let’s start by taking a basic look at the Greek economy. Greece is not a rich country. Their current GDP per capita at exchange rate values is approximately $21,000, and at purchasing power parity (PPP) is approximately $25,000 (both are measured in USD). This puts them closer to China (GDP per capita (PPP) of approximately $13,000), a country where nearly half the population still lives in small farming villages, than it does to Germany (GDP per capita (PPP) of $45,000). Because GDP per capita is roughly equivalent to national income, we should expect that incomes in Greece will be less than half of those in Germany (although this can be skewed by factors within countries such as different income distributions).
Greece is relatively poor, but the government doesn’t spend like it is. Last year Greece’s government budget was approximately 90 billion euros, approximately 50 percent of GDP, although at the height of the crisis it was as high as 120 billion euros. Government revenues are roughly 86 billion euros, resulting in budget deficit of approximately 4 billion euros or 3 percent of GDP. With a population of 11 million, this is the equivalent of borrowing over a thousand euros, per person, per year. And this has gone on a long time – Greece has not registered a budget surplus since approximately 1980, although it came close in 1990 and in 2006.

What has Greece done with this money? Military spending in Greece is much higher than its European counterparts. Greece spends approximately 2.5% of its GDP on the military. Germany, for the sake of comparison, spends approximately 1.3% of its GDP on the military. Greece spends a significant amount of money maintaining extremely generous social welfare benefits. For example, civil servants in Greece employed before 1992 can retire after 35 years of service, if they have reached the age of 58, on 80% of their final basic salary. Germany, in contrast, insists on 40 years of service and sets the pension rate in the low 70% range of basic salaries. The maximum pension payment in Greece is €2538; in Germany, it is €2100. Because the parties that have borrowed this money are democratically elected, the responsibility for this excess spending ultimately falls on them, not the IMF.
Despite relatively generous benefits, Greek revenues are small due to widespread tax avoidance. While the economic elite bear some of the responsibility, working and middle class individuals also frequently withhold tax payments. The black market in Greece is estimated at 25% of GDP (compared to 13% in Germany). While travelling in Greece, nearly every hostel only accepted cash. On Crete, nearly every house has rebar sticking out of the roof – because if the house is under construction, you do not need to pay property taxes. In Athens, pool covers are mostly green so that they do not show up in aerial photographs which the government uses to assess luxury homes. This tax avoidance is ultimately a huge part of the government deficit and the blame falls squarely on Greek citizens, not the IMF.

Many people claim that the IMF is profiting heavily from Greek suffering, but I don’t agree with that either. The IMF has been charging Greece an effective interest of 3.6% - but this rate is significantly below the market rate for Greek debt. The yield on a 2-year Greek treasury bond is about 50%. Why is the market interest rate of borrowing money so high for Greece? Because nothing they have done suggests they are likely to pay them back. Perhaps the most contentious issue is the conditionality of the IMF loans – that is “austerity”. These conditions, such as reducing unmaintainable government spending, are designed to encourage long-run growth in Greece at the expense of short-term suffering. By increasing the rate of taxation (and actually enforcing its collection) and reducing spending, Greece can eliminate its deficit and begin repaying its existing debt. With this stability, the interest rate on its existing loans will be reduced as they roll-over, and the burden of debt payments will be reduced. With economic growth in the neighbourhood of 3% (which it achieved from about 1993 to 2007), it could double its GDP in 20 years – essentially bringing Greek debt to a much more manageable level similar to Canada or Australia.

Greece did vote no, although it was a non-binding referendum, and chooses to default on their debts, the outcome is much worse. First, unlike a personal bankruptcy, the debt doesn't just "disappear". If they reintroduce the Drachma, high rates of inflation are likely for the first few years - which will shrink pensions anyway, which are fixed. The price of imported goods will increase, and a short-term recession is likely anyway. I fail to see how it will solve any of their problems.
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A Turk who hates Greeks and will spout all manner of BS about them.

Wow, my world view is shattered...

PS I'd like to see how Turkey would function with the Euro..

Piaf · Jul 8, 2015

What Turk? Who?

IamnotaMan · Jul 8, 2015

I thought Sitka was a Turk? Or living in Turkey, something like that?
Anyway, numerous SE European Muslims seem to carry over a big anti-Greek feeling from the 20th Century.

Piaf · Jul 8, 2015

He's not.
And I agree with everything he wrote about Greece.

IamnotaMan · Jul 8, 2015

Piaf said:

He's not.
And I agree with everything he wrote about Greece.
Click to expand...

He's still got a pretty biased view, so maybe its because he's Muslim then.

I do business in Greece, have done for quite a while.
It was never going to function as a member of the Eurozone, because it was a tourism and lower end export led economy. And I said that at the vry beginning.

The Euro elite used all sorts of tricks/devious tactics to force them in. It wasn't hard because the elite is self serving, gullible and corrupt.
Govt spending is higher, because of huge unemployment levels.
So now Greece is utterly ruined, and its only hope is to get out of the Eurozone. (Unless ofcourse they want to eat out of bins for the next 10 yrs).
The media won't report the truth because all it wants is to bleed Greece and its assets dry. The Greeks should tell Merkel to fuck herself.

If people don't learn from Greece, then a fair bit of Southern and Eastern Europe will be ruined as well.

Sitka · Jul 8, 2015

I'm an ethnically Irish-Scottish Canadian citizen with a Chinese wife and live in Dubai, if that helps your straw man.

IamnotaMan · Jul 8, 2015

Sitka said:

I'm an ethnically Irish-Scottish Canadian citizen with a Chinese wife and live in Dubai, if that helps your straw man.
Click to expand...

Strawman? WTF...

I think "confused" would describe it. Esp given some of your comments in defence of Islam.
The wonders of the internet eh...

Sitka · Jul 8, 2015

IamnotaMan I AM THOR said:

He's still got a pretty biased view, so maybe its because he's Muslim then.

Nothing I've asserted isn't quantitatively verifiable. Social welfare and military spending, relative to GDP per capita, are significantly higher in Greece than in Western Europe. They suffer from weak economic institutions and rule of law - easily measured by their ability to collect taxes. And the interest rate they received on IMF loans is significantly lower than any rate they have been able to borrow on the open market since 2008. How is any of this biased?

I do business in Greece, have done for quite a while.

Then you should pray to Allah that they don't adapt the Drachma.

It was never going to function as a member of the Eurozone, because it was a tourism and lower end export led economy. And I said that at the vry beginning.

I never said they should have. I think it was a mistake for any of the PIGS to be included in the Eurozone, but hindsight is 20/20. Although I do enjoy the fact that you are essentially parroting Milton Friedman.

The Euro elite used all sorts of tricks/devious tactics to force them in.

Yes. They tricked them into agreeing to meet macroeconomic targets like a deficit of less than 3% of GDP, lower inflation and a public debt of less than 60% of GDP. And then they forced tthe Greek government to to lie about meeting these targets (ie: the Greek State Railway).

It wasn't hard because the elite is self serving, gullible and corrupt.

And I'm biased?

Govt spending is higher, because of huge unemployment levels.

Greek government spending peeked in early January, 2008 when the Greek unemployment rate was less than 8%.

So now Greece is utterly ruined, and its only hope is to get out of the Eurozone. (Unless ofcourse they want to eat out of bins for the next 10 yrs).
The media won't report the truth because all it wants is to bleed Greece and its assets dry. The Greeks should tell Merkel to fuck herself.

Let me predict what will happen if Greece leaves the Eurozone.

1. Greece defaults on their ECB payment.
2. Greece introduces the Drachma. Immediately, all bank accounts are forcibly converted to Drachma at an unsustainably high exchange rate.
3. Because of their low quantity of foreign reserves, they will be unable to maintain that exchange rate and will be forced to significantly devalue their currency.
4. Inflation will spiral out of control because a) Greece imports most of their manufactured goods (cars, computers, oil and gas, etc), driving up prices and b) Greece will be forced to "print" more Drachma in order to purchase Euros in order to meet their liabilities (they don't simply disappear after a bankruptcy).
5. With rapidly rising prices, the government will be forced to implement price controls that will result in widespread shortages and increased unemployment.
6. At the same time, the inflation will greatly reduce the value of the large pensions that they are fighting so hard to save.

None of this will help the very people Greece is trying benefit (the unemployed and those on fixed incomes).

If people don't learn from Greece, then a fair bit of Southern and Eastern Europe will be ruined as well.

Yes. But the lesson to be learned isn't to tell Merkel to "fuck herself", it's to reduce public deficits before it spirals out of control.
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There you go.

Sitka · Jul 8, 2015

IamnotaMan I AM THOR said:

Strawman? WTF...

I think "confused" would describe it. Esp given some of your comments in defence of Islam.
The wonders of the internet eh...
Click to expand...

Description of Straw Man
The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. This sort of "reasoning" has the following pattern:

Person A has position X.

Person B presents position Y (which is a distorted version of X).

Person B attacks position Y.

Therefore X is false/incorrect/flawed.

This sort of "reasoning" is fallacious because attacking a distorted version of a position simply does not constitute an attack on the position itself. One might as well expect an attack on a poor drawing of a person to hurt the person.

IamnotaMan · Jul 8, 2015

Double post edited.

IamnotaMan · Jul 8, 2015

Sitka said:

Description of Straw Man
The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. This sort of "reasoning" has the following pattern:

Person A has position X.

Person B presents position Y (which is a distorted version of X).

Person B attacks position Y.

Therefore X is false/incorrect/flawed.

This sort of "reasoning" is fallacious because attacking a distorted version of a position simply does not constitute an attack on the position itself. One might as well expect an attack on a poor drawing of a person to hurt the person.
Click to expand...

Yawn.

Your claim is distorted, or infact ridiculous. What motivates you, I don't really care.
Either way, its ignoring the facts, and just hurling mud at a country that was infact the victim.

Sitka said:

There you go.
Click to expand...

Its a fundamental of ALL countries to set their currency at a proper rate.
By joining the Eurozone Greece immediately destroyed its capability as a revenue earning state.

The Eurozone banks then proceeded to sell snakeoil to Greece. "Take out these loans and we will transform your economy... oh and he's a paper bag full of cash if you aren't convinced yet". Much like HSBC and others did in Turkey. Much like the IMF does in the emerging world. Etc etc.

Govt expenditure is so high because vast numbers of people are unemployed. Why? Because they're in the crappy Euro zone.
A bullshit idea created by clueless Eurocrats who know nothing about economics. And bank vampires who couldn't give a shit about economics.

The country was TOLD to increase spending by Brussels, all part of the scam back in 2008 and before. And real unemployment was a fair bit higher than 8%, whatever official stats say. UNDER employment was an even bigger problem, even then.

The US/Anglo Saxo/Brussels press will talk crap all day "the Greeks are lazy, they don't bother to collect taxes, all they do is smash plates" etc etc.
Well I hate to break it to you, but Greece is no different to the rest of Europe in that regard. They DO try and collect taxes, but when people are bankrupt you can't get blood out of a stone. And they work fucking hard for incredibly shit wages. Unlike a lot of Germans, Brits, American etc.
Profligate spenders they are not.

The ECB, or rather its puppetmasters knew what would happen from the very beginning. It was a ransacking. The ECB/BRussels demands were ridiculous, and its "promises" were bullshit.

This is all rather academic anyway. After all, you yourself say that the PIGSs shouldn't have been allowed in the Eurozone.
So I've no idea whatever why you are trying to defend Smerkel and the Eurogang.

The fact, which you seem to dispute is that Greece was harrassed, manipulated and defrauded by outside forces ie Euro forces.
Those in economics (me included btw) KNEW what would happen. But Greece was an easy target - just like Iceland and Cyprus, and Turkey on a similar issue. "Hindsight" as you put it, never EVER came into it.

Greece can't pay back the debts, and having its people unemployed and starving won't help with re-growth. Instead of having them as the patsies, people should go after the REAL perpetrators.

It can be recapitalised by Chinese/BRICS money if Smerkel and co don't play ball.
Its all currently being dictated by base commercial instincts. If the Eurobankers can make more elsehwere, then Greeks all starve. So Greece should show some balls and some brains and call out the Emperor's new clothes routine they're being given by Smerkel and co.

The debt? Fuck it. I wouldn't pay back a debt to someone I was the victim of fraud/negligence/reckless incompetence. Let the EU have *some* money, if the EU starts to act appropriately, rather than attempting to ransack all the Greek assets. And at the same time, perhaps Smerkel can write out a cheque for the atrocities Germany committed in WW2. 303bn USD I think Tsipras asked them for.

Greece is now an "emerging" economy, not a developed one, so it needs a currency at the requisite level. So that means Drachmas, and BRICS support. The EU proved themselves to be crooks and charlatans.

Sitka · Jul 8, 2015

IamnotaMan I AM THOR said:

Yawn.

Attempting derision doesn't make you're argument hold any more water.

Your claim is distorted, or infact ridiculous.

And yet you haven't disproven a single thing.

What motivates you, I don't really care.

It's all academic to me, really. I don't have a horse in the race.

Either way, its ignoring the facts, and just hurling mud at a country that was infact the victim.

I haven't insulted anybody or anything. I simply don't believe them to be the victim here of anything except their own poor foresight.

Its a fundamental of ALL countries to set their currency at a proper rate.

Except they voluntarily ceded this right to join the Eurozone. I think it was a poor choice - but you can't have it both ways (ie: reduced transaction fees from being in the Eurozone and independent monetary policy).

By joining the Eurozone Greece immediately destroyed its capability as a revenue earning state.

Immediately might be strong word. They had seven years of basically uninterrupted growth from 2001, when they joined the Eurozone, up until the financial crisis of 2008. European FDI was a huge part of that boom.

The Eurozone banks then proceeded to sell snakeoil to Greece. "Take out these loans and we will transform your economy... oh and he's a paper bag full of cash if you aren't convinced yet". Much like HSBC and others did in Turkey. Much like the IMF does in the emerging world. Etc etc.

You're clearly misunderstanding the role of the IMF. The IMF (and in this case, the ECB as well) offered emergency loans to Greece because their large deficit made potential lenders fearful and drove up the cost of borrowing from other sources essentially impossible. The IMF attached conditions to these loans - conditions aimed at restoring financial confidence in Greece (and earning them the ability to borrow on international markets again). Greece has largely failed to take this medicine.

You call these policies snake oil, but it basically worked for Ireland during the exact same period. The 2008 liquidity crisis in Ireland drove up the cost of borrowing for Ireland upwards of 7 percent (essentially untenable). An emergency loan from the IMF allowed Ireland to recapitalize their banks, confidence returned, the cost of borrowing decrease and Ireland is now paying back the IMF ahead of schedule. So "snake oil" might be a bit of a stretch.

Govt expenditure is so high because vast numbers of people are unemployed.

Like we already discussed, Greek expenditures peaked when Greek unemployment was hovering around it's natural rate (estimated at 7.5%) BEFORE the 2008 crisis. This wasn't the cause of their high expenditures.

Why? Because they're in the crappy Euro zone.

Unemployment in Greece fluctuated between 4 and 8 percent in the period after joining the Eurozone and before the 2008 crisis.

A bullshit idea created by clueless Eurocrats who know nothing about economics. And bank vampires who couldn't give a shit about economics.

I'll leave this one alone.

The country was TOLD to increase spending by Brussels,

When?

all part of the scam back in 2008 and before.

Please provide a specific example, because this flies across every directive I have ever seen.

And real unemployment was a fair bit higher than 8%, whatever official stats say. UNDER employment was an even bigger problem, even then.

Underemployment, while a problem, doesn't result in government expenditures.

The US/Anglo Saxo/Brussels press will talk crap all day "the Greeks are lazy, they don't bother to collect taxes, all they do is smash plates" etc etc.
Well I hate to break it to you, but Greece is no different to the rest of Europe in that regard.

I haven't said anything about Greek people except that they made poor fiscal choices by consistently voting for governments that spent beyond their means. It certainly isn't personal - I enjoyed my time in Greece.

They DO try and collect taxes, but when people are bankrupt you can't get blood out of a stone. And they work fucking hard for incredibly shit wages. Unlike a lot of Germans, Brits, American etc.
Profligate spenders they are not.

They have a poor tax code, weak rule of law, and poor financial institutions. Although historically, tax evasion (not paying the Ottoman Empire) was a form of patriotism, so it might be partly cultural.

The ECB, or rather its puppetmasters knew what would happen from the very beginning.

a) What possible reason could they have for wanting Greece to default?
b) It worked in Ireland, and mostly worked in Portugal.
It was a ransacking. The ECB/BRussels demands were ridiculous, and its "promises" were bullshit.

This is all rather academic anyway. After all, you yourself say that the PIGSs shouldn't have been allowed in the Eurozone.

Yes, but the question is where to go from here.

So I've no idea whatever why you are trying to defend Smerkel and the Eurogang.

Because they are essentially bending over backwards to help Greece.

The fact, which you seem to dispute is that Greece was harrassed, manipulated and defrauded by outside forces ie Euro forces.

Yes. Because they always had the option to simply not borrow the money from the IMF - then none of their conditions would have been applicable.

Those in economics (me included btw I pity your boss) KNEW what would happen.

Nothing has happened yet except for a non-binding referendum.

But Greece was an easy target - just like Iceland and Cyprus, and Turkey on a similar issue.

Private banks in Cypurs and Iceland over-leveraged themselves resulting in a liquidity crisis. Turkish banks relied on high-interest government bonds from a government running a consistent deficit as a form of primary investment. How is this the fault of the Eurozone (which Iceland and Turkey are not part of) or the IMF? I don't understand this analogy.

"Hindsight" as you put it, never EVER came into it.

Do you know what "hindsight" means?

Greece can't pay back the debts, and having its people unemployed and starving won't help with re-growth.

I've already explained how it would be possible with even modest 3% growth for 20 years, especially if they remove the deficit (which will eventually stabilize interest rates at a lower level). But growth requires investment - and things like capital controls and threatening to nationalize foreign investments (Tsipras) don't help in that aspect.

Instead of having them as the patsies, people should go after the REAL perpetrators.

You are blaming a doctor for a patient's obesity because they recommended exercise and exercise is hard.

It can be recapitalised by Chinese/BRICS money if Smerkel and co don't play ball.

Brazil is mired in stagflation, Russia has just weathered a major currency crisis and round of inflation, India has their own budget deficit, China just suffered a 30% stock-market correction, and South Africa is suffering from crippling unemployment (higher than Greece).

An even better question is why would any of those countries (all with lower GDP per capita than Greece) lend money to Greece while Greece is simultaneously threatening to not pay back their loans. After Argentina's 2001 default, it took over 5 years before they had access to foreign capital.

Its all currently being dictated by base commercial instincts.

While what Greece is asking for is charity.

If the Eurobankers can make more elsehwere,

The ECB could already have made more elsewhere, but they are concerned with inflation rates not profit. It isn't a commercial bank.

then Greeks all starve. So Greece should show some balls and some brains and call out the Emperor's new clothes routine they're being given by Smerkel and co.

This is hyperbole.

The debt? Fuck it. I wouldn't pay back a debt to

Fine, but I've already explained the consequences in the previous message.

someone I was the victim of fraud/negligence/reckless incompetence.

I disagree that Greece is the victim.

Let the EU have *some* money, if the EU starts to act appropriately

...they will have the right to recoup that money through trade sanctions - likely further depressing the Greek economy.

, rather than attempting to ransack all the Greek assets.

They haven't taken anything. They are asking for the government to spend less money.

And at the same time, perhaps Smerkel can write out a cheque for the atrocities Germany committed in WW2. 303bn USD I think Tsipras asked them for.

Greece accepted 115 million Marks in 1960. And Germany didn't surrender to Greece. I could ask you for 303 billion USD dollars, but you're as equally likely to pay me.

Greece is now an "emerging" economy, not a developed one, so it needs a currency at the requisite level.

They also have the option of leaving the Eurozone and not defaulting.

So that means Drachmas, and BRICS support. The EU proved themselves to be crooks and charlatans.
Click to expand...

Moonglow181 · Jul 8, 2015

I don't know if anyone else is watching this show, but I am, and it took place in ireland this week. beautiful scenery. i want to go there, and this is the guy I would concentrate on....Ben....I would not be concentrating on Nick or the other one at all like she is.....different strokes. ben is so sweet and i like him alot as a human being......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeKhyiJqy-c

themnax · Jul 8, 2015

red and blue are part of the problem. pumpkin and lime would be so much better.

i would not of course be concentrating on any human person.

places are the thing. and people sized trains and little furry creatures.

of the two hundred and some odd, 30, 40, whatever it is, modern/current nations, it seems like more then 200 of them have that ugly red and blue thing going in their flags.

the rest of the universe knows better then to trust aggressiveness.

there is a reason i'd rather mention what could be then all the things that are not so good problems.

we go in the direction we look.

haven't we gotten tired of doing everything wrong?

Asmodean · Jul 10, 2015

Greece joined too soon. Ideally.... they would have reformed and conformed to EU standards before they joined but it seems 'we' were in a hurry But this is all captain hindsight talk even though some of us could have predicted it with certainty that it would cause problems. They joined (Europe's fault), they fucked up (everyone's fault, incl. Greece, after all were they fair about their financial situation at all times?).

A few years ago I would have been interested in Turkey joining the eurozone too. It still would be interesting of course and also could be very good but I would conclude now that at this point it would be just as bad as when we let Greece join. All in good time. If a country is not working towards it the time is not good. Sometimes it is that simple.

AceK · Jul 11, 2015

We need a new god thread.

Moonglow181 · Jul 12, 2015

In an attempt to answer the overpopulated deer question as simply as i can. nature has a system of checks and balances....her system was perfect......wolf populations and coyote populations naturally took care of overpopulated deer...no, i don't like it either, but that is the world we live in..There are the hunters and the hunted......man has gone viral...taking over most of the land of the world pushing animals into small spaces and trying to take over everything for himself....and this planet is getting very sick.......so what will nature do.....?
more diseases, famine, wars, etc?
Your guess is as good as mine.....but some sort of restoration is inevitable in the long run.

Moonglow181 · Jul 13, 2015

Why do some people try to displace someone else everywhere? is it imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?....or is it setting up a competitiion constantly and trying to take something away from someone else?

also, pretty people on the outside are everywhere in both sexes.......but pretty is as pretty does.......i think it is more important to be pretty on the inside...beauty that lasts.....and is kind......sure, it is great to have both inside and outside beauty, too....but who is to say who is pretty or ugly on the outside? that is as subjective as art is.

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Random Thoughts Thread #3

I'minmyunderwear Newbie

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Random Thoughts Thread #3

I'minmyunderwear Newbie

hotwater Senior Member Lifetime Supporter

IamnotaMan I am Thor. On sabba-tickle. Still available via us

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