Predicting the 2024 Presidential Election Results

This is a thread for predictions about the 2024 US Presidential Elections. It's not a thread for memes, expressing your feelings about the candidates, etc. (there are other threads for that).

Polling was showing Biden doing very poorly against Trump, especially after the debate. It's not surprising that he dropped out.

So far, it's looks like Kamala Harris is almost certain to become the Democratic nominee, since Biden endorsed her immediately after he dropped out, several union endorsements followed soon after, and she has had a major fund raising drive.

There are some problems with anointing KH as the nominee. Harris vs Trump polling numbers aren't available in all of the states, but in at least some of the states where they are available, her polling numbers are slightly worse than Biden's, though also some where they are slightly better. I think the Democrats would have been wiser to wait for polling numbers to come in first, but it looks like it's too late for that now.

The advantage of Harris is that she's not likely to face the same doubts about mental acuity that Biden did, she'll almost certainly perform better in the debates than Biden, and she'll have the option of picking a VP candidate that gives her a boost in swing states. She'll get to inherit the machinery and funds of the Biden-Harris campaign, which may be the strongest case for her being the nominee, as putting together a general election campaign on short notice would be difficult for other potential candidates.

If polling in the states remains mostly the same, it's going to be a tough climb for any Democratic nominee. It looks like Trump has about 235 electoral votes that appear "safe" or close to safe. That means if he hangs on to those 235 he'd only need Pennsylvania (19) and Georgia (16) to get to a majority. He could also lose in Pennsylvania but still win the election with Wisconsin and Arizona. All of the states mentioned are trending his way in the polls.

Also, since a tie vote would be decided by the Republican-controlled House, Trump really only needs 269 to win. That means he could lose Georgia, but if he won Michigan, or otherwise came up with at least 15 electoral votes, he'd still win.

The Democrats would be wise to pick a VP that helps either generally with the swing states, or in at least one swing state in particular. Imho, due to the electoral math, Pennsylvania is a must-win state for the Democrats.

Pete Buttigieg seems to be already promoting himself for the VP position, though I don't see how he would help the ticket, except possibly in fundraising. He seems like someone more popular with the base than someone who will win swing states. The Democratic base already seems to be adequately motivated to vote, so a base turn out strategy doesn't strike me as a good idea.

 

It looks like Harris is at least a couple points higher than Biden in Georgia and Pennsylvania, but still trailing Trump by 2. She's got the lead now in Wisconsin, but by less than a point. Still, that's a huge improvement over Biden who was trailing there by about 4 or 5.

She's also lost points compared to Biden in Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan. However, the gains in other states clearly make up for that, so she's definitely in better position than Biden was.

 

Who knows, she may have the sense to remove the threat of total economic destruction posed by China.

I am not too hopeful though. Look what happened to Trump during his last term, when he even mentioned derailing the corporations gravy train.
The irony was that while Trump was being crucified, the penny dropped here in the UK and western Europe, switching trade to India who have honored balance of trade agreements since the year 1600.

 

You have no idea of what tRump did here, the division, the chaos. He had no intent on derailing any corporate gravy train - only to fill their pockets up. He created the most turmoil since the civil war.

 

I wish the polls would use a larger sample size to produce a smaller margin of error. Polls in Pennsylvania with a sample size of 400-800 are producing results from Harris +1 to Trump +4. Polls that small don't have any meaningful predictive value in states where the numbers are close.

The Harris VP pick will be critical. Shapiro is being touted as one of the top picks, and able to deliver Penn. for Harris. I'm not sure if he can actually deliver Penn., but there's reason to believe he could help. Historically, VP picks can push up numbers 2-3% in a single state. The problem with Shapiro is that he's staunchly pro-Israel, which does not sit well with pro-Palestinian activists within the DNC. The Harris campaign would be wise to make sure they know how he is going to effect polling with Penn. and other swing states before they make a pick. If pro-Palestine protesters stay at home on election day, or start actively protesting against Shapiro, that could cause a lot of trouble.

 

Harris will win unless Maga goes berserk and screws up the election results like they tried before.

No polls can yet reflect the new registrations coming from young first time voters. They were left out since they weren't registered before. Apparently they will be in the millions...

Harris will get the vast majority of young voters, blacks, Hispanics, women, Asians, even independents. And Jews too, since her husband is Jewish and most tend to be liberal.

And those are the most important groups, other than born agains and other Christian fanatics.

 

Trump doesn't want to be president again, he intentionally took a dive in 2020 and will do it again.

 

I don't see a sound basis for that. There's at least some basis for thinking that Harris could win. The race seems to be pretty tight.

Yes they can. Most of the polls are designated either "RV" or "LV", which I think stands for "registered voters" and "likely voters". An "LV" poll could include 17-year-olds who will be 18 by election day, could be legally registered to vote, and who plan to vote.

Young voters will probably vote for Harris by a strong majority. Young voters have a reputation for low turn out, however. I'm not seeing a reason to think that there's really an invisible army of Harris voters not being reflected in the polls.

That sounds reasonable.

Maybe, but do you have evidence for that?

Do you have evidence for that? Many Jews are liberals, but they tend to be super conservative about Israel. The war in Gaza is a very polarizing issue within the Democratic party.

It's better to see what's there than to have wishful thinking about the election outcome. Neither side has this election locked down, though if Biden had stayed in the race Trump might have run away with it.