It's too close to call right now. Bush is losing in the polls presently, but that could realistically change within a week. Personally, I think the situation in Iraq will decide who wins. If things go well in the weeks before the election, Bush has the best chance. If things go up shit creek in Iraq in the weeks before the election, Kerry win. Everyone already knows where both candidates stand on the issues, so now it coes down to who can make the other look worse, and Iraq could make either candidate look good or bad.
Ya...I am not looking forward to this election though, both Bush and Kerry seem hell bent on ripping on eachother...that type of political campaign is just annoying.
Yeah most of the shit slinging in this election is unneeded. Both parties are rallied more than ever though. Especially the left, but i do believe the left is choosing the wrong media icons (Micheal Moore and Al Franken).
I believe that the economy is going to be the deciding issue. Almost a million jobs have been added in the last 3 months. If that trend continues, Bush will win. Iraq is an important issues, but there are two main reasons that I don't see it as the deciding factor. The first is that elections are traditionally decided by domestic policy issues over foreign policy ones. The second is that Kerry's stance on Iraq isn't really very different than Bush's. He spends a lot of time blaming Bush about the Iraq war, but he hasn't really proposed a way to fix things (other than UN subservience which is more likely to cost him votes than gain him one).
The 4 main issues in the elction {not to me, but to the outcome}. Iraq --- could swing either way. Economy --- looks like it is swinging toward Bush. Character -- looks like a swing toward the right. I see even late-nite pundits making fun of Kerry's flip flops. Gay marriage in Massachutsetts -- Kerry, who is from MA, and has nothing to do with the issue, will lose a lot of votes as a result of it. It is definitely still up in the air. Held today --- Kerry wins.
I found the prediction very interesting. I don't gay marriage will be a main factor in the outcome, but Bush is using his views on the issues to rally support from the right. Actually, Kerry is trying stay in the middle (I think) on this issue. As for the map... there's nothing I would seriously disagree with now. But a state or two could change depending on whom Kerry names on his running mate (I wouldn't shocked if he names someone from the South). I think if the election were held today, Bush would win (unfortunately).
Even if Kerry picks Edwards or someone like that, Bush would still win the south hands down, even the Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, etc. The only toss up is Florida, although I have seen a few polls and show Bush winning slightly, but that could change at any time. I was surprised to see Washington state as a possible toss up--very interesting, but I Re-elect Gore has done some pretty heavy research (I've seen his site) and I am guessing the election will be pretty close to what he has said.
