Midterm Predictions

Discussion in 'Politics' started by lode, Oct 10, 2018.

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Will the midterms be a Red Wave or Blue Wave?

Poll closed Nov 5, 2018.
  1. Red Wave

    12 vote(s)
    60.0%
  2. Blue Wave

    6 vote(s)
    30.0%
  3. We vote 'no confidence', ritualistically eat our representatives, and start from scratch

    2 vote(s)
    10.0%
  1. lode

    lode One Man Orgy

    Anyone have any midterm predictions? Anyone gambling on it?

    I've got the blue team picking up 35+ seats in the House and taking it.

    For the Senate, I'm betting on a 50-50 split. I think Dem's lose Heitkamp in North Dakota, but pick up Sinema in Arizona and Rosen in Nevada.

    It'd be interesting what'd happen in that case. Last time that happened in 2000 they came to a power sharing agreement. Things are way less bi-partisan now, and that would mean that the Senate would remain under GOP control in practice due to the tie-breaking vote of Pence.
     
  2. Okiefreak

    Okiefreak Senior Member

    Hope you're right. A 50-50 split in the Senate would be interesting. Last time we had that was in the first term of the G.W. Bush administration, but things are a bit different now in being more partisan and high-handed. The Democrat leader was able to negotiate 50-50 representation on committees, despite the tie-breaking ability of the v.p. Would that happen again? Who knows? But if it doesn't, all hell will break loose.
     
  3. Noserider

    Noserider Goofy-Footed Member

    Wonder if Gary Johnson has a realistic chance of winning New Mexico.

    The weight of his votes in the Senate could be huge. He's socially liberal and fiscally conservative.
     
  4. Okiefreak

    Okiefreak Senior Member

    You really can't distinguish Trump from Obama as far as to how they govern? Nepotism, divisive rhetoric, violation of the emoluments clause, separation of immigrant children from their families, tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the national debt, climate change denial, trade wars, environmental deregulation, abandonment of even-handedness in Israeli-Palestinian relations, etc., --whatever? Are you paying attention?
     
    scratcho likes this.
  5. Okiefreak

    Okiefreak Senior Member

    Has he figured out what Aleppo is yet?

    [​IMG]
     
    Noserider likes this.
  6. Meliai

    Meliai Evenstar

    I cant believe more people arent down with eating their representatives.
    They probably would taste a bit gamey so I guess I can understand the hesitation
     
  7. Noserider

    Noserider Goofy-Footed Member

    That's the kind of foreign policy we need in this country anyway.
     
  8. 6-eyed shaman

    6-eyed shaman Ad-hominem receiver

    Gary Jonson disappointed me when he came out as a social justice warrior who gets offended by the term illegal immigrant, and supports a carbon tax. Among several other things he's done.

    But yeah, after the Aleppo gaff, I'll bet a good percentage of Americans had to go to look up what Aleppo was on Google, because they didn't know what the hell it was anyway.
     
    Noserider likes this.
  9. tumbling.dice

    tumbling.dice I Am Only An Egg Lifetime Supporter HipForums Supporter

    Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could vote no confidence? I'd set the bar kind of high, maybe requiring 3/5 or 2/3 to pass.
     
  10. Asmodean

    Asmodean Slo motion rider

    Feed them to the pigs!
     
    Meliai likes this.
  11. Asmodean

    Asmodean Slo motion rider

    Aleppo Kush will fuck you up
     
    eggsprog and Orison like this.
  12. NoHobo

    NoHobo Member

    Republican landslide. Democrats have a whole lot more on the line and a lot of those races are going on in states that were very much pro-Trump. Strong economy will push people to vote for the status quo.
     
  13. monkjr

    monkjr Senior Member

    Which doesn’t make sense because the stock market fell approx 1000 points these last couple of day's.


    I think people are skeptical, that there are enough lefties who live in the center who think like the west and upper east coast do.

    I think the blue states realize with the gerrymandering they see rises in social media, but they know they can’t attribute that social force into electoral power given living distributions. It’s partially a miscalculation on why Hillary lost, she insulted center american, and she’s of a generation that doesn’t know how to emotionally or politically recognize online internet meme traps.

    Also many liberals and lefties lack business-degree knowledge at a voter level; while upper-level conservatives tend to major in finance and business, and even some upper-level democrats too.

    It’s why conservative tax policies take two steps forward and one step back, while public tax initiatives fail at a slow pace to advance,
    it doesn’t have full democratic support.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018
  14. Okiefreak

    Okiefreak Senior Member

    That was probably a long overdue correction and an over-reaction to the Fed's interest rate policy statements. Now if it continues to go down, Trump may be in trouble.



    Hillary faced multiple headwinds, including the Comey report shortly before the election and of course wikileaks.

    And many conservatives and righties lack political and social science knowledge and are easily fooled by demagogues.

    Make that two steps backward three steps to the rear.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2018
  15. monkjr

    monkjr Senior Member

    [/QUOTE]


    On that last part I was speaking from an objective observer perspective as in a right agenda making place advances on a board, and a left trying to advance spaces on a board.

    Your response is correct if you are speaking from 1st person, being tied to leftist views. We’re both correct.
     
  16. Okiefreak

    Okiefreak Senior Member

    Moderate Republican, my ass. Trump isn't moderate about anything, and he's fundamentally departed from traditional Republican policies on NATO and free trade--plus he's introduced levels of corruption, nepotism, and partisan divisiveness into our government and politics that are really unprecedented. He's packing the federal courts with extremists and Congress is eating out of his hand. One would hope that candidates adapt to the institutional constraints and political realities when they win office. Trump is abnormal in that regard. Your view of American government is seriously misinformed and badly out of date. If you're a feminist, you may be aware that Trump is the most anti-feminist President we've had--a womanizer who laments the plight of oppressed males and puts pigs like Kavanaugh in office. News flash: Hillary is a woman--not the most feminine one around, I'll grant you that, but anatomically distinct from the Donald. I agree that love is the answer, but we don't promote it by electing hateful people like Trump to office. Otherwise, love is just a four letter word.
     
    scratcho, MeAgain and Tyrsonswood like this.
  17. lode

    lode One Man Orgy

    8 to 2 for red wave?

    People are free to have their political beliefs, but statistically, it's much safer to bet on the Toronto Raptors than to bet that the red team keeps the House.

    I could be wrong. :D
     
    Flagme15 likes this.
  18. Meliai

    Meliai Evenstar

    But seriously how I the only one firing up the grill and pondering what sort of sauce will pair best with Mitch McConnell
     
  19. Meliai

    Meliai Evenstar

    Vinegar based? Mustard?
     
    lode likes this.
  20. Tyrsonswood

    Tyrsonswood Senior Moment

    I predict a total clusterfuck.
     
    Noserider likes this.
  21. lode

    lode One Man Orgy

    It just felt strange voting in my own poll.

    My pasta sauce with Trump vodka will make a superb Devin Nunes ravioli.
     
    Meliai likes this.
  22. Meliai

    Meliai Evenstar

    Followed of course by a decadent cheesecake with a Lindsay Graham cracker crust
     
    McFuddy likes this.

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