Ipcc Says Global Warming

Ok I'd love to see your sources for any of this. Don't get me wrong it makes sense that all this will have SOME tiny effect. My contention is that all these things will contribute to warming on a very, very minute scale. I don't think all this will add up to even 1 degree of warming in the next 100 years. When do you think warming will really pick up Noxious? Will we see it by 2020?

and just to clarify, are you in favor of greenhouse taxes?

 

It's important to put your money where your mouth is. To figure out how confident you really are. It's an extremely valuable tool to have in your kit.

1000ppm is 2 degrees according to you. Excellent.

 

He's obviously a wannabe Alex Jones.

If you care about science so much, why wouldn't you just listen to scientists?
I'm pretty sure they're a better source of science-related information.

Here's a search result from a very reputable science journal:

http://www.sciencemag.org/search?site_area=sciencejournals&y=-163&fulltext=anthropogenic%20climate%20change&x=-708&journalcode=sci&journalcode=sigtrans&journalcode=scitransmed&submit=yes

Knock yourself out.

 

There's confident, there's cocky, and then there's pretending that you're going to come back to this thread in the year 2030 to see if your predictions were right.

Here's the graph again, I agree with it, so my prediction is that it's right:

http://www.skepticalscience.com//pics/Temperature-cumulative-co2-emisions-model-2-20140211.png

 

Would you agree that the most efficient, most reliable way to decide an argument is a live debate? Especially when so much data is available on this subject. I can name 5 people who want to debate carbon tax proponents and the other side is terrified. They can ignore the damaging papers that are submitted to them, but they can't compete head to head.

The carbon tax believers, are the ones making a claim. The burden of proof resides with those who wish to make energy more expensive. Make no mistake, this will increase prices for goods, and make everyone a bit poorer. This will be especially burdensome for Indians and Chinese as they try to climb their way into a comfortable standard of living. Temperatures haven't changed more than half a degree in 2000 years. CO2 has a tiny, tiny, effect. Not on the scale of degrees but on the scale of hundredths of degrees.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/GlobalTemperaturesSince1991.png

http://www.drroyspencer.com/library/pics/2000-years-of-global-temperature.jpg

 

The reality continually falls below even their most conservative predictions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbUxLfIv4sY

 

But it was an obvious conspiracy. All you had to do was read the newspaper to know what the truth was. Hardly anyone believed the tobacco industry.

 

not in the '40's, '50's and early 60's.
Tobacco was touted as a wonderful thing and any mention of negative consequences was never heard by the public until the mid-sixties.

 

That's right. I was thinking of 1964 (when I was 12) onwards.

 

1990 - (FAR)FirstAnnualReport - Get ready! Here comes the warming!
1996 - (SAR)SecondAnnualReport - It won't be as bad as we said but summer is coming!
2001 - (TAR)ThirdAnnualReport - Ok it's gonna spiral out of control!
2007 - (AR4)AnnualReport4 - Even worse than we thought! Shitstorm inc.
2009 - (AR5)AnnualReport5 - We're super serial! The dominoes will fall!

Late 2014 - http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018
Look, look, look. This isn't really about temperature guys. You've heard enough about CO2 to know it's fucking horrible. We need to tax this shit and if you're not on board you're an anti-planet, conspiracy theorizing, denier, oil shill.

"Troubling pause
The scientific basis for the 2 °C goal is tenuous. The planet's average temperature has barely risen in the past 16 years"
-
"Second, the 2 °C goal is impractical. It is related only probabilistically to emissions and policies, so it does not tell particular governments and people what to do."
-
"The best indicator has been there all along: the concentrations of CO2 and the other greenhouse gases..................A global goal for average concentrations in 2030 or 2050 must be agreed on and translated into specific emissions and policy efforts, updated periodically, so that individual governments can see clearly how their actions add up to global outcomes."

 

ok, so it's fine to pump out as much C02 and pollution into the atmosphere as possible. no need for any environmental regulation whatsoever?

 

This is essentially how it goes, China and India are trying to get their shit together and achieve western standards of living. If we let them get there as efficiently as possible, they can raise like 100 million people a year to this level. I'm just throwing some very rough guestimates out there, but this is the continuum we're looking at.

Out of 2 billion poor people, 100 million people per year get upgraded. Throw on heavy taxes and prevent the most efficient energy sources from being used, and that number maybe drops by half.

Out of 2 billion poor people, 50 million per year get upgrades. If we try to shut down CO2 emissions hardcore, and really limit coal to the greatest extent possible.... who fucking knows, 10 million - 20 million per year are able to claw their way up to refrigerators and hot showers?

So we're looking at best case scenario, capable people who can run industrialized societies are enriched in 10-20 years. Worst case scenario, heavy, devastating energy taxes keep them where they are for 100-200 years.

And once again, it's blatantly obvious how off the IPCC's predictions have been. They always aim high. Way, way too high. Scientists and laypeople are slowly, begrudgingly admitting it looks like we really are not warming. If we start cooling, they can only hide so much of it so they're laying the groundwork for "CO2 is bad whether or not it's warming us"

 

Let me speak only on CO2. Read my lips "NO CO2 TAXES"

I anticipate absolutely no negative effects anywhere in the near term. We should continue to monitor the repercussions, if any, and reevaluate at 600ppm, 800ppm, 1000ppm. I don't think we'll see anything close to a 1 degree rise in temperature, and who knows what new energy technology might emerge in that period. In the meantime, what's at stake is the impoverished condition of about 2 billion fairly smart people in Asia.

 

I've actually read that some nations in Africa are relying heavily on cheap solar energy. While solar energy never really took off in the US and other developed nations it is much cheaper than the cost of oil in Africa and is therefore being used quite frequently.

it is possible to talk of humanity's environmental footprint and how this effects developing nations without framing it in terms of a carbon tax. One can be against carbon tax and still understand negative human impacts on the environment and also still support developing nations right to further development.

 

What's really amazing in this thread is the tolerance for the opinions of others and the respect shown by all. There has been none of the condescending, belittling or polarizing language we usually see in these debates. Only pure facts and reasonable responses to queries. It's been refreshing.

Only it hasn't has it now? I don't respond to personal jabs in forums because they are beneath me. If you feel it makes your case stronger, fine. But I feel no need to play posturing games during a debate and won't respond. So by all means mark it down as a win on your tally sheet and skip off happily to the land of righteousness.


Here's a hint though, if you feel a need to open a sentence with "Obviously you don't know......" or "Maybe if you learn to read ........" the words that follow are likely to be just as asshole-ish.

But that's just a theory.

 

Also, if you want to see where solar power exists in the US, look to the mountains on Google Earth. Take a look at Brasstown NC to see what one of the arrays looks like, then expand out and you'll see far more than you might have expected. I figure they are between 900kw and 1200kw each. Snazzy little airport there too!

 

This is ridiculous. You are looking for a convincing graph and you won't look at the obvious best source -- the IPCC report? It has all the graphs you need.

I'm leaving this thread. As usual, the deniers won't listen to anything that might challenge their wrong beliefs.

 

Yeah I expect good things from Elon Musk and Solar City.

We're right on the doorstep of a carbon tax being crammed down our throats, so that's definitely the only aspect of this we'll have control over in the near term.

 

Funny thing is: both parties are now calling each other deniers. Real constructive

 

THESE IPCC REPORTS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbUxLfIv4sY