In or Out of the E.U?

Bill

People are pissed off – they were before the last national election to many there was little difference between the Conservative Party and what had become New Labour so many voters switched went for the Liberal Democrats only to find that they jumped into bed with the Tories. So what you hear now is that ‘they are all the same’ – so people are not voting or voting for others including the loony right (another gainer although not shouted about so much in the media was the Green Party)

 

Bill

By ‘we’ I mean the pro-European left, the problem is that we live in a country with a history of seeing Europe as them and us (the old headline ‘Fog in channel continent cut off’) and that has been encouraged by a right wing press that didn’t like the often left leaning Europeans (all those false stories about Brussels interference).

Although now the biggest supporters for staying in seem to be the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) who usually lean to the right but realise that we export mainly to the rest of Europe, but the current ant-Europe play seems to be coming from the financial services (Tory’s trying to stop the tobin tax and the cap on bonuses are just two examples), I think Cameron’s ‘better deal’ will be about protecting THE CITY from interference.

And in a way that’s the thing the great divide between Britain and many of the other big players in Europe is the differing economic models, what are usually describe as the Anglo-Saxon (more correctly the Anglo-American) model and continental capitalism (within which are differing types – Rhine, Nordic etc).

The Anglo-American type is neo-liberal/free market based (short termist, anti-union, anti-welfare, low taxation, little interference in the ‘markets’ etc) while the other is more socially based (long termist, more state intervention, a focus on wealth redistribution and a belief that markets are to be regulated to serve society).

In the early USA there was one union and two economic models and that lead to a civil war out of which came one union and one economic model.

I’m not suggesting we have a war but the two models are so different that there can be little compatibility.

So that should be the start, to try and change thinking on our economic model.

 

I agree in general with most of that.
One point I'd make is that they have intervened to bail out the failing banks, and with the whole QE business.
Max Keiser of RT said sometime ago this is 'socialism for the rich'. I think he has a point.

Also it is a fact that the Greens get very little attention from the media, despite a quite good result in the Euro elections. I think that comes down to media bias, pure and simple. I actually voted Green, as I felt I might as well in the European context.

I don't see Labour as having many answers, but I will probably vote for them in the General Election next year, as I tend to think that although they're not very good, at least they might be less bad than the Tories. Lib Dems are probably finished.

I agree that Cameron is very likely only interested in protecting the City from Tobin taxes or other regulation the EU might like to put in place, but I don't think he's a full Euro sceptic. Trouble is he's weak and ready to cave in to the right wing of his own party. And of course, UKIP have scared them.

 

Bill

That is the great con game the ‘free marketeers’ pulled – they encouraged the belief that neoliberalism ideas had put an end to boom and bust, they scorned government and parised the markets – and so even if things went wrong the market would sort it out, and on the very rare occasions that something minor should happen then companies or banks would (should) just go to the wall and the taxpayers wouldn’t need to bail them out, that was how the ‘free market’ worked.

And a lot of people fell for their patter although some did point out that the very same neoliberal ideas had produced ‘too big to fail’ multinational entities and if they began to go then at some point in a crisis governments might have to step in or watch the whole financial system go down the tubes - but they were ridiculed or dismissed.

(Of course the logical conclusion of neoliberal ideas would seem to say let it go although it’s a bit hard to pick up the pieces afterward and people are fighting to death over a tin of beans in a burnt out Tesco’s)

It was the same people that profited from that ‘free market’ philosophy that started crying for government intervention and public money when their boom inevitably went bust.

So now we are getting the worst of all systems whereby in booms we get corrupt neo-liberalism where the benefits of any rise in the economy mainly go to wealth (and which always sets up the system for a fall) but when the bust happens we get bastard Keynesianism where government is forced to bail out wealth (or let the economy fall) but then wealth demand austerity for all everyone else.

A heads we win tails you lose scenario.

To me this will beggar the society it is played out in but by then wealth would have moved on or will be established as new feudal lords in a land of peasants and serfs.

I’m amazed – but they seem to have pulled it off – many seem to think that they are suffering austerity now because the labour government spent all the money on dole scroungers and nothing has really been done to stop such a major crash happening again.

I hope things will change and there are some rays of light

 

We could be heading for the kind of neo-feudalism you are describing. I hope not, but it's really hard to see how things are going to change. Part of that is the way in which the mainstream media represent, or misrepresent the cause of the problems.
Which is why many people blame the Labour govt, people on benefits, or even EU immigrant workers for the mess, and have no idea how it has been caused by the financial industry with their dodgy derivative products and serial frauds, along with their neo-lib pals in governments.

There's also the prospect of a probable future crash, as not much has changed for the big banks etc, and they're back at the same old games.

 

Bill

Yes it's them getting away with it that pisses me off and the banks are now cushioned and beginning their speculative ways (rather than giving real investment), wages are falling behind so people are taking on more debt and we have a London property bubble – why does basket and hell keep coming to mind.

 

Another thing which is a bit alarming is that when and if the next crash does come, it could be a lot worse than the last one. And really I wonder what they'll have left to deal with it. QE can't go on forever without a risk of deflating the currency. Interest rates held at near 0% can't go any lower.
But none of that really helps the ordinary person very much anyway.

Even a modest rise in interest rates could leave a lot of people in a real mess, as levels of personal debt are now the highest they've ever been.

Afraid we've wandered off the topic of Europe here - but I think that the UK would have more chance of surviving a future crash as part of the EU.

 

Bill

More developments

So we get Cameron before Harfleur “Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; Or close the wall up with our English dead”

Now we get the spat over the nomination of Jean-Claude Juncker to the presidency of the European commission, he seems to be trying to black Juncker because he see’s him as too much of a federalist.

“David Cameron has reportedly warned that Britain could leave the EU if Luxembourg ex-prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker becomes the next president of the European Commission.

German news magazine Der Spiegel claims the Prime Minister issued the warning to German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the EU leaders summit in Brussels on Tuesday.”

Again it comes back to the two camps – the ones that see Europe as a market that should be run on neo-liberal lines and those that think that the only way for Europe to sort out its problems (mainly economic) is to become more of a United States of Europe.

Will England walk away in a huff (to the detriment of the British economy) or will the others get sick and tired of them and push us out.

 

I think it's quite likely that if the tories get in again, we may well end up leaving. But I wouldn't blame the others for getting pissed off. It seems to me that since the days of Thatcher, we've done little but try to throw a spanner in the works.

I think though that a United States of Europe would tend towards a neo lib type agenda, but with some social measures. The Uk outside Europe is more likely to ditch the social side. That would be a complete reversal, as at one time we pretty much led the world in terms of social policy.

It's poignant maybe to reflect at this time, the 70th anniversary of D-Day, on European history. I hope we never go back to the bad old days. Just the avoidance of war alone should be enough reason for us to want to be at the heart of European integration. But politicians think only in the short term, and when it suits their agendas, the have very short memories.

It strikes me that what we're getting these days is a kind of resurgence of nationalism in various European countries. That in my view is wholly regressive, whether its UKIP, Marie LePenn or German neo nazis.

 

Bill

Yes I do get that 1930’s déjà vu feeling once and awhile.
Rise of nationalism, nascent extremism, creeping annexations, all with a background of economic instability.

It seems to have been English foreign policy since William the Conqueror…

As I’ve said I don’t think we were ever really committed to the ‘European project’ and I believe that was one of the reasons why Charles de Gaulle twice black balled Britain’s entry into the club.

Hell I’m not sure what would happen if we left now – many of the non-European corporations that brought up British industry (Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Tata Kraft etc) did so as a way into the European market, others are European companies (BMW, Volkswagen). And of course a number of our power companies are European and at least in one case owned by the French governments (it was nationalised but just not by our government) which is going to control ‘our’ nuclear power stations, with a huge subsidy from our government.

How all those arraignments would work if we pulled out is unsure. I’m not saying that we’d be locked out of trading with Europe but we wouldn’t be part of the common market so that might put up some barriers and also we’d still have to compile with EU directives on good to be able to export to EU countries anyway (what would we gain).

Also we wouldn’t be part of the American/EU trade pact as well so….
The idea that plucky England (again I stress ENGLAND) could sail its own course like some freewheeling buccaneer in the international export markets is I think a pipe dream of those that look back to when the sun never set on the British Empire (the old joke being because god didn’t trust an Englishman in the dark).

What I fear is that we’d see the decline continue in our manufacturing (and exporting) base, foreign companies would see us as a cash cow to be drained (then discarded) and our dependence on financial services would become even more pronounced and basically that ‘industry’ doesn’t really care what happens to anyone or anything outside the of the City’s square mile, to it the British people are just the financial guarantors of their risk, we pay when the inevitable crashes they engineer occur.

If you get a chance (it’s not available at the moment) listen to ‘The country formally known as London’ by Aditya Chakrabortty
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03zb7dr

 

Try listening to this – Liquid Assets

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03phrwz

Its on the water utility companies many since privatisation have run up huge debts, securitised to the hilt while paying out huge dividends to foreign investors.

With the city taking a cut all the way along.

 

obviously a bad idea to leave... people keep thinking about the social issues and never the economic.

thus

stay in with renegotiation of the issues.

we chose globalisation. deal with it.

 

And so you emerge from your cloak of abstraction and rejoin us here!

 

Out.

Although I'm not a kipper I'm glad that they have put the question front and centre. If need be I'd risk a vote for them to ensure the next government gives us a referendum.