http://usuncut.com/politics/how-this-weekends-bernie-sanders-iowa-rally-compared-to-hillary-clintons/ Here is a link to a story about the size of the rallies this weekend. I've attached the pics from the article. It's remarkable that Bernie's event drew 3800 people (with an additional 500 turned away because there was no room) while Clinton's event only drew 200. The national news keeps repeating the same lines about how it's neck and neck in Iowa, etc. Well.....I live here and the feel around here is pretty much reflected in these pics. It doesn't seem neck and neck at all. Even Republican friends of mine (and Republican friends of theirs) are switching sides to support Bernie in Iowa. We shall see what happens tomorrow night!
I just don't understand this mentality. If everyone voted for the candidate whose ideas they most respected then it wouldn't be besides the fact any longer, eh? Instead people feel like they have to use their vote as a bet on the candidate they think is most likely to win. And we wonder why our system is so broken when we repeatedly cast votes for the most corrupt politician within whatever given party because they're the "most electable," whatever that means - for trump it seems to mean his face is plastered on tv more than the others, for Hillary it seems to mean she's more well known than bernie because she's been involved in multiple scandals.
It might be a tighter race than expected, with what looks like Hillary stacking the deck on a couple fronts. (Both getting O'Malley to 15%, so his people don't go to Bernie, and using out-of-precinct (out-of-state?) precinct captains, which isn't illegal... but it's kind of weird according to the guy who noticed it.) I just hope Iowans show up to caucus. I know the weather is supposed to suck, but I hope there's a ginormous turnout! Man... just hours away... I'm gonna be biting my nails all day and night!
The weather isn't going to be bad until later in the evening. I've been reading about rumors of her trying to stack the deck and.....I wouldn't put it past them at all but....with the feel in the air around here, it would seem like they would just be trying to make a loss look a little closer. I'm just going on my gut feeling but it sure doesn't feel like it's going to be close enough to have something like that matter. But it's hard to say. There is also the Microsoft numbers reporting which both camps are supposedly guarding against and the fact that the DNC clearly wants one person over another so....there's that...for whatever it's worth. I just want to feel like it's a clean race when it's done and, if that happens, my feeling is that Bernie should win Iowa by 4-6% points....which is actually a fairly substantial victory. Edit to say that I am in no way someone who should be taken as a serious authority on the issue. I just like math and I like my candidate. And I think I know my state.
Well, I like your gut. I'm trying not to get my hopes up, but can't help it at the same time. I may have trouble sleeping tonight... lol
I really should get a Twitter account so I could just share crap like that with Sanders/#feelthebern/and so on.
The best time to support a favorite candidate that isn't very mainstream is early in the campaign process. Opinion polls matter. Small contributions matter. Volunteering at the local campaign office matters. Attending a rally matters. Posting on social media matters. Every little thing plays a role in the big picture. A lot of things change before election day, the final step in the process. Some candidates gain momentum, others drop out. Everything shifts around. A candidate that is polling at 2% on the day before the election isn't going to make a miraculous surge in 24 hours and win. It's too late. When a pollster calls me, I tell them who my true favorite is, but on the actual day of the primary, I won't waste my vote on somebody I consider likely to lose to a Republican in the general election. I'm passionately opposed to all the fundamental core principals of conservatism, so electing a Republican is the worst case scenario for me. During the George W. Bush years, I felt like a foreigner in my own country. I don't ever want to live through that again. I think a lot of people are worried that Bernie can't beat Trump, but I think a plate of mashed potatoes could beat Trump in a national election if it didn't say foolish things on TV that offend thinking people.
^yeah, I mean I once voted for John Kerry who is completely lackluster so I understand voting against the other guy, but I don't even see how it is applicable in this race. Bernie is polling well against all the GOP candidates. I've considered myself an independent since shortly after obama first started serving his first term - not really because of Obama, I think he's done okay with what he's had to work with, but at some point I realized the democrats aren't that different than the republicans - the only noticeable difference I can see is their views on women's rights. So I've had a difficult time with the concept of voting for someone I dislike just to keep someone I dislike slightly more from winning. I would rather vote independent or third party (with the exception of the Bern, but he's essentially an independent anyways.) It won't be a wasted vote forever. More and more young voters are not aligning themselves with a party. I think we're already seeing the death of the GOP and the democrats will probably see the same fate unless they move further to the left and become more progressive.
I don't believe in the "wasted vote" theory. To me every vote is a voiced opinion, and I value my opinions too much to cast them on politicians of the lesser evil. Especially the famous ones I despise. When you cast a vote, it is documented as a voice of support in the political history books, and I don't want to voice any support toward any politician I disagree with enough. This is the reason I haven't yet voted for a democrat or republican presidential candidate in the general elections. I didn't become a registered voter until I was 22. And the thing that motivated me to do it was to vote for statewide measures that affected the laws and economy of my state like taxes and marijuana laws, and also to vote a corrupt sheriff out of office who actually used intimidation threats against my family personally. The only presidential candidate I've ever voted for was Ron Paul; by the time my state finally had its primary it was clear he wouldn't win but I voted anyway.
Interesting note... going into tonight's caucus, Quinnipiac released a poll that put Sanders at 49% and Clinton at 46%! Now, I'm not a big believer in polls for fine details, but I do think they can show generalized trends... and I'll take that as a positive sign. And now we're only 40 minutes from doors shutting. *biting nails*
The vibe in my area of the state is very different. I'm no bernie fan nor cunton, but imo I see him getting screwed! Not by numbers, but under the table and behind closed doors he is not privy too. Who knows, he might get a fare shake, but she is a blatant lier, murder, scandals up the ass so it leave to wonder what will happen! Wait and see I guess
That state's Democratic Party caucus format makes corruption very tempting. If somebody pays you to vote a certain way, they can easily watch to make sure you follow through. It also invites voter intimidation by employers and family members. I'm glad that format isn't common, nationally. Secret ballot should be required by law, everywhere. The turnout is heavy, which is projected to favor Sanders and Trump, based on profiles. I'll bet those candidates and all the national press people are really sick of Iowa by now, and the overnight snowstorm is likely to close the airports in the morning! :rofl: No telling how long they're gonna be stuck there.
Sanders won my precinct by 10%! But I just got home and the news is reporting Hillary ahead by just a bit with 39% of precincts reporting. Looks like Cruz is winning by a few points with 18% of Republican precincts reporting.
Also...many other larger areas haven't finished yet. I know I have friends who say the rooms for Bernie supporters at their precincts are literally overflowing with people. My guess is that these earlier numbers are more rural areas.
Right now.....Clinton- 50% Sanders- 49% They are separated by less than 20 delegates (out of around 1000 so far). If it stays at these percentages (regardless of who is ahead)....it's basically almost a tie in term of delegates as we move on to New Hampshire. But one camp will have some momentum from a narrow win. It could still go either way with it being so close right now.
561-549 with about 80% reporting. Can it be any closer? When I got home it was about a 20 delegate difference and a 3 point lead for HC. That number has obviously lowered to 12 as the night has gone on. Some college area precincts have presumably not reported yet because the turn-out was so massive that they started very late (I have friends there telling me that).
I hope people are reading these updates. The difference is now 8 delegates out of nearly 1200. My friends precinct just finished and Bernie won 5-2 there so the lead should shrink to just 5.
There was nobody for her, bernie had a few in my area. GOP wise mainly trump. Number wise, who knows yet.
