Brexit

Discussion in 'U.K.' started by Joshua Tree, May 16, 2016.

  1. Kiprat

    Kiprat ophidiophobe

    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    55
    Well the alternative is to learn a skill, set up a business, or sell coke/whatever.

    I'm not advocating just sitting at home all day watching whatever shite is on TV.

    I've seen grads do shit jobs, and it basically killed them inside. Burning talent like that doesn't do much for society either.
    We're always told that its lack of skills cause unemployment. So its pretty cuntish of the Establishment to tell the skilled that they should do UNskilled work to avoid unemployment.
     
  2. Yogamat

    Yogamat Members

    Messages:
    268
    Likes Received:
    86
    Yes but whilst waiting for that skilled job,surely it makes sense to work any job?It doesnt mean they're going to be shovelling shit for the rest of their lives does it?In my original post,I spoke about a reporter asking unemployed unskilled people if they would pick veg from a local farm for NMW.They all said a resounding NO they would'nt.I would rather pick veg for a while until something else more suitable came along than apply for benefits.All to easy for some folk to get stuck in that rut,laying in bed all day,whilst their parents slog their arses off working full time.Once I worked in a fish factory in Scotland for a few weeks,until I found work in my chosen field.Yes it was bloody freezing working there,and the work was hard,but if thats what you have to do to support your family and yourself,so be it.
     
  3. Joshua Tree

    Joshua Tree Remain In Light

    Messages:
    4,844
    Likes Received:
    1,630
    Those advocating remaining in the EU include:

    Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Opposition
    Barak Obama, President of the USA
    Christine Lagarde Director of the International Monetary Fund
    Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
    Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies

    Those advocating leaving the EU include:

    Boris Johnson, Former Mayor of London
    Nigel Farage, Leader of the UK Independence Party
    Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee
    Jacob Rees-Mogg, Conservative Eurosceptic MP

    Based on those facts alone, I know whose company I would rather keep.
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. WOLF ANGEL

    WOLF ANGEL Senior Member - A Fool on the Hill Lifetime Supporter

    Messages:
    67,053
    Likes Received:
    23,654
  5. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

    Messages:
    12,471
    Likes Received:
    10,032
  6. Joshua Tree

    Joshua Tree Remain In Light

    Messages:
    4,844
    Likes Received:
    1,630
    Ask not for whom the bell bongs, it bongs for Brexit.

    bong-brexit.jpg
     
  7. Rots in hell

    Rots in hell Senior Member

    Messages:
    11,133
    Likes Received:
    7,213
    Thats Fucked it !

    UK economy will outpace eurozone for first two years after Brexit, IMF predicts
     
  8. Rots in hell

    Rots in hell Senior Member

    Messages:
    11,133
    Likes Received:
    7,213
    Premium

    Boost for the City as EU firms flock to set up UK offices after Brexit
     
  9. Balbus

    Balbus Senior Member

    Messages:
    13,152
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    Brexit has already cost the country £130 billion and the price is rising

    Research by Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economic cost of Brexit has already hit 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), with a further 70 billion pounds set to be added by the end of this year. That’s based on the damage caused by the U.K. untethering from its Group of Seven peers over the past three years.

    $170 Billion and Counting: The Cost of Brexit for the U.K.

    Basically their argument is that if we had not entered into the Brexit madness the country would have been billions of pounds better off.
     
  10. Balbus

    Balbus Senior Member

    Messages:
    13,152
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    Can’t seem to find the underlying figure for but yes ‘The financial watchdog said the UK economy would grow by 1.4 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2021 after anaemic growth of 1.3 per cent last year. The figures are unchanged from its October forecasts.

    BUT

    “The growth forecast assumes an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship,” its World Economic Outlook said, adding that its forecasts depended on the UK and EU “averting” a no-deal exit.

    And as others have commented that is not assured and the Chancellor Sajid Javid has already sparked alarm among business chiefs saying ‘There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule taker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union’ which points to the opposite of an orderly exit from the European Union and would probably result in a very bumpy transition period
     
  11. I find it hard to believe that people are still interested in talking about Brexit. When does it all end?
     
  12. Balbus

    Balbus Senior Member

    Messages:
    13,152
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    LOL sorry the only way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote against it- if you voted for it then you were voting for it to go on for years

    So far all we have had is the withdrawal agreement

    After that come the agreements on trading with the EU27 that could take years

    Then increasing numbers of people will see that Brexit was a mistake and the call to re-enter will begin

    I suppose that would be when Brexit ends and EUin begins
     
  13. Vanilla Gorilla

    Vanilla Gorilla Go Ape

    Messages:
    30,289
    Likes Received:
    8,561

    Germany's growth rate has been lower than that the last two years, and the forecast for this year

    German Industry Is Being Battered by a Perfect Storm

    One of the main problems is the switch to the digital age. They are better known for making better cars, but that becomes a problem when everyone else is switching from engineering to digital and your manufacturing industry is too dependant on the former

    And this at a time when you are headed for the meaty part of Brexit deals.

    Germany is going to cave, they have to. Or a few of those car makers will go under
     
  14. Vanilla Gorilla

    Vanilla Gorilla Go Ape

    Messages:
    30,289
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Definate reversal in all the outlooks all of a sudden.

    Funnily enough you can blame Trump in part for the Eurozone slowdown
     
  15. Balbus

    Balbus Senior Member

    Messages:
    13,152
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    VG

    But what is meant by that - what are they supposed to ‘cave’ on?

    In what way does the EU have to capitulate that the UK doesn’t?

    Yes it will hurt the German manufactures but it will hurt the UK’s even more.

    Remember that this is the same argument put forward about the withdrawal deal – that it would be easy because we held all the cards because Germany manufacturers would ‘cave’ – they didn’t – the withdrawal deal, that was meant to give us all the benefits of been a member with none of the supposed drawbacks, never happened.

    And now we have leave supports saying the exact same thing about the trade deal.

    To paraphrase Einstein it is the definition of insanity to repeat the same argument over and over but expect different results.
     
  16. Balbus

    Balbus Senior Member

    Messages:
    13,152
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    Trade negotiations are about both groups trying to get the best deal for themselves it’s about give and take, swings and roundabouts, you may gain in one area by losing out in another.

    And the UK isn’t in a great position.

    Remember for example that 51% of all exported UK-built cars were bought by customers in the European Union in 2018 but if you take it the other way around, less than 4 out of 10 cars made in the EU27 are exported (38.3%), with roughly ONLY one third of total exports heading to the UK (or 12.4% of total production).

    If we don’t come to a deal on cars the UK losses out a lot more than the EU - in that position who is more likely to ‘cave’?

    But it gets worse because while the UK runs a deficit in good we run a surplus in selling services to the EU27 and so we really need a deal in that area

    Services accounted for 41% of the UK’s exports to the EU in 2018. Financial services and other business services (a category which includes legal, accounting, advertising, research and development, architectural, engineering and other professional and technical services) are important categories of services exports to the EU – in 2018 these two service categories made up just over half of UK service exports to the EU.

    The rational thing to do would be to get a deal that hurts the UK the least - but are leavers rational?
     
  17. Balbus

    Balbus Senior Member

    Messages:
    13,152
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    It would be rational to get a deal but are leavers rational?

    It should not be about ‘getting one over’ the EU - the rational thing is to try and get the best deal possible.

    But as I keep pointing out the leaver position isn’t rational, it is rather irrational given that not one of them seems able to explain in any rational way why any Brexit is actually a good thing for the UK to be doing.

    But they seem to expect the EU to act rationally – they argue that EU27 manufacturers are going to be hurt by Brexit so therefore it is rational for them to put pressure on the EU to capitulate and give the UK everything it wants in any negotiations (although leaves don’t seem clear on what they do want) BUT they don’t seem to want the UK manufacturers who will be hurt even more by a bad deal to not put on any pressure to give the EU what it wants and seems to see it as akin to treason if they try.

    The argument from some leaves around a no deal crash out of the EU seems to be that it will be a good thing because it will hurt the EU even if it ends up hurting the UK even more.

    I get the feeling that some if not many leavers want to bring down the EU whatever the cost, even if it meant hurt or misery to the people of the UK, they would think it worth it.

    But what happens when they get all the pain but no gains, when the EU doesn’t crumble into dust when we crash out, what if our economy goes into decline possibly even free fall and what if the UK finds itself in all but name the vassal state of US corporations and hedge funds, a zero contract state, the NHS sold off and public service removed.

    What then?
     
  18. Balbus

    Balbus Senior Member

    Messages:
    13,152
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    What has to be remembered is that Brexit isn’t just some bump in the road, a little jolt before continuing on as before – Brexit it is like taking the slip road onto a country lane, it is a completely different direction and environment, and while the supporters think the road will lead so some other even better motorway they don’t seem to have a map and refuse to listen to those that are pointing at the satnav and warning that the road seems to be heading to a dirt track down to the cliffs.

    Brexit is a generational change and its full impact will only become clear maybe 50 years or so into the future, so the yearly forecasts will go up and down but it’s the longer term trends that will tell the story and few in the know (not the leaver zealots) seem to think it is the right course for the majority of people in the UK although it might be for a few, as we morph into a low tax low regulation tax haven.
     
  19. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

    Messages:
    12,471
    Likes Received:
    10,032
  20. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

    Messages:
    12,471
    Likes Received:
    10,032

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice