Brexit

Does balbus even live in the UK?

 

It doesn't matter where he lives, it still doesn't invalidate his criticisms.

 

He knows a lot about brexit. So i’m guessing yes. But as what vlad said it shouldn’t matter.

 

Booze

LOL – get what?

I mean I DO get that no leaver seems able to put forward a rational argument as to why Brexit would be good of the UK

Oh you are so funny - as pointed out there was and is no rational argument for leaving, it’s impossible to lose against nothing.

As I’ve pointed out I accept that we are leaving but that doesn’t mean that leaving is a good idea, is jumping over a cliff a good idea when you have been warned that it is liable to cause injury or worse and isn’t wouldn’t it seem criminal to force those that are giving the warning to jump as well?

 

Irm

I don’t make a secret of where I live in my posts or you could just ask

 

Booze

In 1932 the German electorate voted for the Nazis and Hitler putting them into power – because that was the vote, was that by definition a ‘good’ thing?

Now I am in no way saying Boris and the present Tories are Nazis but I am pointing out that elections don’t always return the ‘good’ choice.

There were many who warned against the Nazis, and said it was a bad choice - what was the outcome for many of them - well on the 3rd March 1933 the first concentration camp was set up in Dachau and they were IN it.

Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education. FDR

If people choose unwisely, the outcomes can be bad.

 

The EU has shrunk as a percentage of the world economy

 

VG

As it states this is about % of output from 1980 to 2017 but with more countries been counted in later years (only 146 in 1980 but 190 in 2107) so that will make the EU look likes it dropping and it would also have to account for the rise in production of developing nations, especially China.

In the early 1970s, when President Richard Nixon visited China, it produced very few manufactured goods—a tiny fraction of the U.S. level. About 1980, China's manufacturing started to take off, surpassing the industrial powers one by one, overtaking the U.S. in 2010

I presume you are posting this to present the EU as failing but if so them you would have to say the same for the US and many leavers seem to see tying themselves to them as an alternative to the EU.

[edit] I mean if you looked at this more objectively you could argue that the EU has been doing very well against new and strong competition.

So again what is your rational argument for leaving the EU?

 

What has to be remembered is that Brexit isn’t just some bump in the road, a little jolt before continuing on as before – Brexit it is like taking the slip road onto a country lane, it is a completely different direction and environment, and while the supporters think the road will lead so some other even better motorway they don’t seem to have a map and refuse to listen to those that are pointing at the satnav and warning that the road seems to be heading to a dirt track down to the cliffs.

Brexit is a generational change and its full impact will only become clear maybe 50 years or so into the future, so the yearly forecasts will go up and down but it’s the longer term trends that will tell the story and few in the know (not the leaver zealots) seem to think it is the right course for the majority of people in the UK although it might be for a few, as we morph into a low tax low regulation tax haven.

 

Trade negotiations are about both groups trying to get the best deal for themselves it’s about give and take, swings and roundabouts, you may gain in one area by losing out in another.

And the UK isn’t in a great position.

Remember for example that 51% of all exported UK-built cars were bought by customers in the European Union in 2018 but if you take it the other way around, less than 4 out of 10 cars made in the EU27 are exported (38.3%), with roughly ONLY one third of total exports heading to the UK (or 12.4% of total production).

If we don’t come to a deal on cars the UK losses out a lot more than the EU - in that position who is more likely to ‘cave’?

But it gets worse because while the UK runs a deficit in good we run a surplus in selling services to the EU27 and so we really need a deal in that area

Services accounted for 41% of the UK’s exports to the EU in 2018. Financial services and other business services (a category which includes legal, accounting, advertising, research and development, architectural, engineering and other professional and technical services) are important categories of services exports to the EU – in 2018 these two service categories made up just over half of UK service exports to the EU.

The rational thing to do would be to get a deal that hurts the UK the least - but are leavers rational?

 

It would be rational to get a deal but are leavers rational?

It should not be about ‘getting one over’ the EU - the rational thing is to try and get the best deal possible.

But as I keep pointing out the leaver position isn’t rational, it is rather irrational given that not one of them seems able to explain in any rational way why any Brexit is actually a good thing for the UK to be doing.

But they seem to expect the EU to act rationally – they argue that EU27 manufacturers are going to be hurt by Brexit so therefore it is rational for them to put pressure on the EU to capitulate and give the UK everything it wants in any negotiations (although leaves don’t seem clear on what they do want) BUT they don’t seem to want the UK manufacturers who will be hurt even more by a bad deal to not put on any pressure to give the EU what it wants and seems to see it as akin to treason if they try.

The argument from some leaves around a no deal crash out of the EU seems to be that it will be a good thing because it will hurt the EU even if it ends up hurting the UK even more.

I get the feeling that some if not many leavers want to bring down the EU whatever the cost, even if it meant hurt or misery to the people of the UK, they would think it worth it.

But what happens when they get all the pain but no gains, when the EU doesn’t crumble into dust when we crash out, what if our economy goes into decline possibly even free fall and what if the UK finds itself in all but name the vassal state of US corporations and hedge funds, a zero contract state, the NHS sold off and public service removed.

What then?

 

So it seems the UK is going to launch a poster and billboard campaign (in the age of the internet) in 17 cities across 13 countries outside the EU on February 1

The reason for this huge expense of money – to tell these foreigners that Britain is now ‘Ready to Trade’

Which begs the question why were we not ready and willing to trade before?

I mean one of the claims of leavers that NEVER stood up to rational scrutiny was that UK companies after Brexit would be ‘free’ to trade with ‘other’ countries.

The thing was that we were already are able to trade with lots of countries, we had a tariff free frictionless border with our biggest trading partner lots of other trade agreements because of EU membership (about 40 trade agreements which the union has with more than 70 countries) and other agreements with others.

I mean world Germany already exports more to China and India than we do, what are we going to suddenly manufacture, create and sell when we are not part of the EU that we didn’t and couldn’t have done when part of it?

But the thing is how do we trade from now on?

We have I believe 20 "continuity" deals covering 50 countries or territories (covering only 8% of total UK trade) – and continuity means what it says these are continuations of what there was before – again I ask if we were not trading more before leaving why will we be able to trade more by leaving?

The big question is what will trade be like with our biggest trading partner the EU27 that accounts for some 49% of our trade? Well we don’t really know and the government doesn’t seem to know either

The companies in the states of the EU already trade with the UK but don’t know how they will be doing so in the future telling them that the UK is ‘Ready to Trade’ doesn’t really help giving them some details might.

It seems to me that this campaign isn’t about getting more trade it’s just more jingoistic propaganda aimed at comforting (and bamboozling) the leavers.

 

Good money after bad

The expensive ‘Ready to Trade’ propaganda campaign actually come on top of another expensive propaganda campaign called ‘Get Ready for Brexit’

The National Audit Office said ministers chose to run a £100m campaign – the most expensive of four options – to tell all UK businesses and individuals how they should prepare for leaving the EU. The campaign was launched as the 31 October deadline for leaving the EU approached…The campaign was halted three days before the UK was supposed to leave after the EU granted another extension

It ended up spending £46m on something few though was worth it as one person put it “This damning report shows what we knew all along: the Conservative government’s ‘Get Ready for Brexit’ campaign was an expensive propaganda stunt designed ahead of the election to help no one but Boris Johnson stay in Number 10.

 

I wonder what Balbus will say when Brexit doesn’t end in disaster.

Should be interesting

 

6

Problem is that leaving is already having an adverse effect on the country, as I pointed out if this was a left wing policy the right wing press would be shouting blue murder but instead they are just ignoring it or trying to sweep it under the carpet.

But as I keep seeming to have to explain to leavers the true results will only really be seen in the long term and the decline of Britain.

The true level of the disaster of leaving will probably only be clear after i'm dead

 

Are you kidding? The whole country goes all The Purge when their soccer team loses.

No way they survive this one.

 

Bye Bye Europe, bye bye

 

I ask again - what are you celebrating?

I mean NO leaver has come up with any rational reason why Brexit benefits Britain and its people - NOT ONE

 

Mystic

As for paying for EU membership well to repeat for what seems like the millionth time

I believe it cost somewhere close to 9 billion

But let’s put that in context - we spend:

145 billion on health

45 billion on defence

29 billion on transport

And 13 billion on overseas aid

We also contribute less (per head of population) than some other EU countries such as Germany.

For the 9 billion we get all the advantages of free trade with the EU members and with the EU trade deals with none EU countries along with a say in the regulations and policies set by the EU (unlike say Norway).

Some have put a figure of roughly £31bn-£92bn per year as the best estimate we have in terms of the additional value created to the UK economy through trade as a result of EU membership.

And research by Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economic cost of Brexit has already hit 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), with a further 70 billion pounds set to be added by the end of this year. That’s based on the damage caused by the U.K. untethering from its Group of Seven peers over the past three years.

 

mystic

LOL honestly do you think the neoliberals that have been pushing for Brexit are suddenly going to become socialists?

These people want to sell off the NHS they wish to cut benefits and the reason why we have such bad public transport in the UK compared with some other European countries is because of the privatisation of many parts of it which the neoliberals had pushed for.

Virtually all the problems that the more disadvantaged in this country are facing (housing, health, reduced public services) are all down to neoliberal policies

The same neoliberals that pushed so hard for Brexit - you can hope all you want but the long term results of this are going to be hard