Brexit

I can only hope sense and rationality will take hold and we seek an extension of article 50 so the nation can get a people’s vote.

But the damage has been done even if the new vote says remain. The country will still be divided the investors spooked and if we do nothing the long term prospects for the country seem bleak.

The thing is that the elephant in the room is just not getting enough attention, that elephant that is trashing the furniture and defecating on the carpet is neoliberalism.

It was neoliberal policies followed by the Tories and Tony Blair’s New Labour that brought about the conditions that led to Brexit (and Trump in the US).

It is an ideology that creates unnecessary inequality with ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ and then tells the victims that it’s all their fault for been in hardship because they are useless.

So of course these people wanted to lash out, it was just that the unscrupulous right were a lot better at manipulating their anger and that grievance to their own ends.

The irony and tragedy is that the ends these right wingers want is neoliberalism on steroids.

 

Brexit has broken the traditional image of British political system (it has actually been broken for some time but the traditional political parties have been desperately papering over the cracks).

The system is mean to be that you have the party of government and the party of opposition, traditionally right and left, the Conservative Party and Labour (of vis versa).

Now anyone with knowledge of British politics already sees the problem the main parties are made up of factions and the Conservative Party is not conservative but split between shades of Thatcherite neoliberalism and more right wing varieties of neoliberalism and Labour is split between old labour (more socialist) and new labour (lite neoliberals).

But party loyalty has kept them in line.

But Brexit has ripped apart the paper to reveal the glaring fault lines beneath

There are the hard right that think the EU is too socialist and want to leave whatever the cost so they can set up a neoliberal utopia

There are some on the hard left that think the EU is too neoliberal and want to leave whatever the cost so they can set up a socialist utopia

There are Labour MP’s voting for Brexit although they know it’s going to do harm to their constituents but because they say that’s what they voted for (which to me is like leading the turkeys to the abattoir at Christmas). There are Conservative MP’s voting against Brexit because they think it is going to harm the country although their constituents voted for it.

Then there are left and right pragmatists that if they thought about it at all before referendum was called, weighted up the advantages and disadvantages of been in the EU and realised it was much better to be in especially with all our perks and concession we have. These if anything have joined together to be the opposition to Brexit.

While the leaderships of both parties stumble and splutter not seeming to know what they want to do but seemingly more interested in trying to stop their parties from splitting than doing what’s best for the country.

And the pro-brexit lies go around and around, with people still seemingly falling for them.

So not knowing what do our Conservative Party leadership (with the help of the Labour party leadership) seem to be driving us towards a cliff in the hope that the EU will shout ‘stop the madness’ and give us everything we want (although they already think we are mad to be leaving anyway so that seems unlikely)

All the while the extreme right are actually hoping we will go over the top in the absurd believe that like the car in the Chitty Chitty Bang Bang movie we will someone learn to fly.

 

As I said earlier in this tragedy (and this thread) actually on the day after the vote -I saw this fiasco as taking years to play out.

I worried for my daughter the most.

There was a lot of talk of disaster happening the day after the vote but I thought that was stupid, I thought it would happen slowly because any deal we made would not be as good as the one we had.

It would be a slow demise brought on by a thousand cuts, the decline of sterling, things costing more, the undermining of manufacturing, disinvestment, and reputable companies not coming here or moving out to be replaced by tax haven type investment.

I thought it would be almost imperceptible.

But this was based on the idea back two years that we would take the task of getting a deal seriously and end up with something that was reasonable and functional.

But as can probably be seen in my increasingly frustrated posts that has not happened.

The Conservatives seemed to just waste the first year working out what the EU actually, how it worked and what it meant to the UK and when they did find out they spent the next six months been worried about what they had learnt only to cobble together a pretty crap deal that was rightly thrown out of Parliament only three months before we are meant to leave.

To the rest of the world we have come across as mad or a fucking joke.

And I think the speed of our decline has increase in pace because of that.

 

Sadly, I think you're right there. But the idiocy goes on.

My local MP,Daniel Kawczynski, a hard brexiter, said the other day on twitter that Britain recieved no money from America under the Marshall Plan after WW II. A complete lie, but he's defending it, saying:

"Those affiliated to Europe in this Country hate any challenge to their point of view"

So I assume he thinks that falsification of history is the way to promote his own narrow and self-serving views, having no real arguments to put forward other than the now discedited crap which swung the vote in 2016.
What he really wants is movement in the gold markets post brexit, as he has a £6,000 per month job as a consultant with minerals investment manager, Electrum Group, who would stand to make big profits out of such market movements.The price of gold relative to the £ spiked by 10% after the referendum, and further movement, and hence big profits for Electrum and their poodle would be sure to follow a hard brexit, which I think is now looking more likely.

 

For those that might doubt Bills words about the Marshal Plan you can read about in the article below

Basically we used the money to pretend we were still a great power rather than on much needed industrial and infrastructural modernisation, just as in the same way we pissed away our North Sea Oil money on Thatcher’s failed experiment rather than on much needed industrial and infrastructural modernisation.

*
The Wasting of Britian’s Marshal Aid by Correlli Barnett

We all know the easy British explanation for our cumulative export defeat in world markets from the 1950s onwards, especially at the hands of the Germans. This story tells us that lucky West Germany had all her industries and infrastructure bombed flat or removed as reparations, and then was able to re-equip herself from scratch with Marshall Aid dollars. Meanwhile, so this hard-luck story goes on, poor old Britain had to struggle on with worn-out and old-fashioned kit.

This is utter myth. Britain actually received more than a third more Marshall Aid than West Germany - $2.7 billion as against $1.7 billion. She in fact pocketed the largest share of any European nation.

BBC - History - British History in depth: The Wasting of Britain's Marshall Aid

Dude where’s my North Sea oil money?

Dude, where's my North Sea oil money? | Aditya Chakrabortty

 

Andrew Adonis, prominent remainer and one of the leaders of the campaign for a second referendum thinks that if we go hard brexit, it will spell the end for the current parties. He thinks both Labour and Tory would spilt.

I think he's proably right. It's going to be almost imossible for people who want to reamain in the EU to vote for either main party again after this complete shambles. And that's about half the country at least, probably more by now. So where do they go? Lib Dem? They lost trust really by going in with Cameron and over tuition fees. Green? Be nice if there was a big swing to the Greens, but I can't see it hapeneing just yet.

I actually think Blair is right when he says we need a new and strongly pro-Europe centre party. Much as I dislike even neo-lib lite, I really don't see any real alternative. Corbyn I feel has completely lost the plot.

Whatever happens, one thing is certain, this present batch of politicians have brought British politics to the lowest point in living memory. The 'mother of parliaments' has turned into the 'mother of pantomimes'. We need root and branch reform. This current system is simply not fit for purpose, and it is, or should be, an embarrasment to any self respecting UK citizen.

 

Bill

I agree with you, I’m just a bit more pessimistic (Mondays make me grumpy)

Because my fear is what might replace the established parties it would be great if the Greens were the winners but I doubt it, I worry what might come out of the right field.

Because I’m sure of one thing and that is the leavers are not going to be blaming themselves when things go pear shaped (as they will). I mean they are already blaming the EU for not giving them the unicorn they wanted (all the benefits without paying for it or having the responsibilities).

I’m sure the fifth column remainers, the traitors that were ‘not supportive enough’ will be next on the list.

And there are going to be those that are going to get annoyed when they realise that leaving the EU didn’t mean all the brown, black , Muslims and Hindus didn’t disappear (and to those that bristle at that no I don’t think ALL leavers are racists and bigots but some are, I know I’ve met them).

The problems that brought about the UKIP vote and then the Brexit vote have not gone away. We have had warnings from MP’s that not leaving will fuel right wing extremism and I’m sure they are right but also I think that if we do leave it going to fuel the same thing, because it’s not going to make things better.

And on the other side, if we leave, the remainers are likely to have the burning resentment of the longest ‘I told you so’ in history. If people lose jobs or suffer hardships in Brexit areas because of Brexit I fear there are going to be few tears shed in Remainer areas.

We are a nation that is split in half, with many on either side not likely to be magnanimous in victory or defeat.

So what do we have going forward, political instability coupled with economic instability, if so that is never a good recipe for producing a healthy or wealthy country?

 

I'm not particularly optimistic myself. I share your worries about the possible emergence of a new hard right. Also agree that the leavers will try to pin the blame on Europe when things go tits up - as well of course as on the usual suspects - the poor, the disabled, immigrants. Con will balme Lab, Lab will blame Con.
However, I don't think the extreme right have much wide support at present. Things would have to go very bad indeed before the majority would swing that far, but it is a worry for the future,especially as you're also right that there will be resentment from leavers because none of what they wished for will happen.

The hard brexit mob (not the politicians but their followers) are a relatively small cadre of nut cases, who simply don't care for the truth or for any kind of rational arguments . It all seems to be based on emotionalism, hubris and ignorance. You only have to look at the World War II rhetoric that's being used. Evidently there was a 'leave means leave' protestor outside parliament who when asked about shortages and supply difficulties post brexit said that he'd be happy 'to eat grass as long as we leave the EU'. I think we're still a way off from the place where such moronic attitudes have a wide appeal.

Truth is, as soon as there are any kinds of shortages, increases in unemployment etc a lot of people may be in for a big shock. We've had it pretty easy since the 50's in the UK compared to the real hardship my grandparents generation suffered in the 1930s. It's really only since 2010 and the tories taking power that austerity has bitten - but not really bitten the middle classes too hard as yet. I think that as people see the prosperity they worked for disappearing, there will be anger and there will be some hard questions.

 

Brexit

We have about a month to go (36 days as of writing) and still no deal

Well the shadow de facto breakup of the traditional political party’s has become a reality, splinters have broken off (7 labour 3 Conservatives) and have become independents unaffiliated to the political party’s they were once members of.

It might not seem much but the fact that it has happened at all is a major event and it is just the tip of the iceberg of how large the divisions a battles with the major political party’s really are.

Others are threatening action before March 29th or after March if there is a no deal (fuck lot of use it will be then).

The arguments for their leaving are many but its Brexit that’s seems to be driving the pressure, with both groups citing a leadership in thrall to hardline political factions as a reason. With Corbyn doing next to nothing in relation to Brexit (so letting it happen by default) although over 80% of labour voters want to stop Brexit and on the other side we have hardline leavers (and the right wing media) seemingly dictating what the Tory’s do.

I heard the other day that some 70% of the British public do not like or trust either of the major parties, but in the fucked up first past the post electoral system there really are no alternatives.

 

It's looking bad. Our unprincipled and racist idiot apology for a PM seems determined to either get her 'deal' through, which seems highly unlikely, or crash us out, causing potential economic devasation both here and in Europe.

This week we saw Honda saying they're closing down their UK operations (they say not because of Brexit, but I think that's just Japanese diplomacy), with the loss of over 3.000 jobs directly, and a lot more in the supply chain, but we still see McLusky and Corbyn prattling on abut 'british jobs for british workers ' - sounds like they just materialized out of the 1970's. The Labour party won't be forgiven for their pathetic stance in going along with a self destructive disaster driven by the hard tory right. I read that 250 other large businesses are going to be relocating to Europe. So much for the Tories as 'the party of business'. And so much for Labour as 'the party of the people'.

In effect the main parties have completely failed both business and the people. Can the breakaway group get big enough quickly enough to make a difference? It might if we had principled politicians, but I'm afraid we have self serving idiots on both sides whose main focus is to ensure their own re-election, maintain their place on the gravy train. It will be too late once we've crashed out.

Still, there's time for things to turn around yet. But even if brexit can be stopped,and it could still be, so much damage has been done that it's hard to see how politicians here can ever hope to regain trust. Personally, I think an end to the 2 party system is an absolute necessity if we aren't going to be governed by fanatics of the right or left for the foreseeable future. But we need to go much, much further in reforming this obsolete and dysfunctional system.

 

As we get closer to the edge the things that remainer’s predicted would happen after a Brexit vote are coming true.

But as I’ve said in previous post they are coming true a lot faster than I thought they would - because I didn’t think we would be this shit bat crazy as to have no deal only a month away from leaving.

EU institutions have already left, many companies have already moved many others are in the process, investment is down (in car making down 50%) growth is down, other big firms have begun winding down there industries with the intention of closing down and leaving the UK. And while companies like Honda and Nissan might be blaming other things than Brexit when it quack like a duck, I call it a duck and I’m sure once the autopsy has been performed by history it will be confirmed as a duck.

And the actual number of trade agreements we have set up so far is four that is 4 (Switzerland, Chile, the East Africa trade blocks and the Faroe Islands) - as part of the EU we have free trade within the EU 27 states and trade agreements with 60 counties out of it.

I thought it would be a lot slower with a deal been in place that would only slowly to be detrimental to the UK (as any deal would be worse than the one we had) and with the realisation the trickle away of investment, companies and industries to better climes.

But the spectacle been put on in the full glaze of the world has made it clear that the UK has lost the plot and so the realisation I thought would come slowly has come to many up front and obvious.

 

The Uk has become a laughing stock in Europe, and our politicians even more so. Businesses can't afford to gamble on the outcome of all this - so they're voting with their feet.

'Fuck business' - B.Johnson.

 

Hi Bill

Wow you were quick with your reply i hadn't even posted my part two - in with things in it that you cover (and more eliqiently than me).

will post more later

 

I just happened to be on here - I think you're doing a good job of stating the situation. I'm sure there's a lot I left out.

 

Bill

I’ve always hated the first past the post system because it’s been fundamentally undemocratic I mean even Thatcher’s Tory’s when she was at the top of her popularity only got 43% of the popular vote but had near dictatorial powers in parliament.

But I was guessing that what come after even a soft Brexit with its slow decline was not going to be pretty been a blame game on steroids, with the right wing media blaming everyone and everything but Brexit for any problems or failings in the country and the economy.

I heard a leaver on the radio just the other day blaming things as is and going through the list - at the top was the EU and foreigners, followed by the socialists, the Labour party, left wingers, (multicultural) Londoners, and lastly, but not least, the moderate right.

But in the case of a hard Brexit I think even that would seem like a walk in the park

I fear either case is not exactly going to be a conducive atmosphere in which to have a reasoned and rational debate about electoral and Parliamentary reform however much it is needed.

 

Bill

Thank you

I’m thinking of bounding this thread up and giving it in book form to my daughter so she can read it later in her life to understand how her society has got to the point where people are fighting to the death over an out of date tin of beans in a burnt out Tesco’s

 

You're right I fear. And also that the right wing media will blame anything but brexit when things go bad. But it isn't just the media - unfortunately a large segment of the population have their opinions dictated by Murdoch and Co, or the biased BBC.. Even when none of what they voted for comes to pass, and unemployment has climbed back up, when they're paying way more for what food is still in the shops, and the chemist doesn't have the medications they need, they'll still believe whatever the Sun, the Mail or the Times tells them. And no doubt think it a virtue that they're so 'loyal' to the very people who are making absolute monkeys out of them.

As unemployment is certain to rise dramatically (a fact they'll try to hide by massaging the stats as usual) some of those who were so much behind the attack on the benefit system will probably find themselves having to sign on, getting sanctioned and the rest of it. It won't be possible to blame Euro immigramts for that, so maybe a new wave of racism against all our other immigrants will be all that's left.

Another massive concern is that whilst all this is ging on, any attempt to even look at the real problems like climate change, mass extinction etc is going to be ignored. One day we might wake up and find it's too late. I wonder who they'll blame then?

 

The people I have no time for are those of my own generation - baby boomers that voted 'leave', who had such a good start in life under the old order with free education up to university level, have benefitted immensely from Britain's membership of the EU, and lived through a time which has been a peak of prosperity unparalleled in history. My sentiment at times is that they'd do the kids a big favour by simply dying off, and leave the future to the people who will have to live in it.

 

Just a quick update on that - Danny boy has now been forced to admit he was wrong about the Marshall Plan. After a somewhat pathetic article in the local tory-supporting paper about how he'd be 'consulting academics', an a lot of bitching on twitter about how people mis-spell his name.Google is as far as you'd need to go to find out about the Marshall Plan. No need to 'consult academics'.

2 possibilites then:

1- he knew he was lying and miscalculated - but even if it were true, it would only mean that the US had dumped the Uk after the war, which wasn't the case. It wouldn't reflect badly on Europe, or strengthen the case to leave in any way.

2- He's ignorant of the facts of post war British history which is a disgrace for an MP IMO. I know about the Marshall Plan, and I didn't go to a high fee private school. So DK is either an idiot, a liar or probably both.

 

Oh this has been thrown at me before in my life by right wingers who wanted to find some excuse for why Germany (it always seemed to be Germany) was doing so much better than Britain economically – it was all because Britain didn’t get any Marshal plan money and too many ‘socialist’ governments.

But we did get aid money and the Tory’s have had more years in government than Labour have since the war.