Brexit

George Osbourne, UK chancellor now saying that more spending cuts will be necessary as well as tax rises.

Predictable enough.

Also turns out that promises that UK fishermen would be allowed bigger catches after Brexit now retracted.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltokomw4UoQ

 

Bill

I think once the Welsh leavers wake up to the fact they were lied to and the right in control are not going to replace the EU money that once flowed into the valley’s…

Yep heard that too and more regrets from people who voted leave - at this rate in five years time nobody will admit they voted to leave.

On the Outy side I think it will cause a certain amount of bewilderment that is very likely to turn into anger, the leave side is already angry I mean it wasn’t like the brexit lies stood up to even closest scrutiny but the Outies preferred snake oil salesmen to experts (Gove ‘people in this country have had enough of experts’).

But then the right have been lying for years over the EU and been believed – not helping out the region and austerity well we are sending all that money to Brussels – immigrant all the EU’s fault – not got a job EU red tape.

I wonder what happens when they can’t blame the EU?

Anyway i think the level of anger in this country is going to rise.

 

What the hell are you talking about?

NHS, Community, Welfare......only EU member countries have these things ?????

And you were jumping around before talking about the League of nations and the UN, doing a Fox news and confusing the EU with the UN

I'm on a politics forum discussing politics, and no I cant follow your train of logic

'The EU also has a social dimension, Social – societal – community'

Sounds intentionally vague to avoid answering the question




I'll try a different approach, compare England to say Japan

Name one single area,one single thing, where England has been better off than Japan over the last 20 years due to England being in the EU.

Japan, not an EU member, not in the region....name one single thing





Truth is you have no idea, take the example of improvements in public transport in Merseyside due to EU grants. No idea whether public transport would be better in Merseyside, better funded had England not been in the EU the last two decades.

 

The pound jumped back up slightly today, no surprises there

 

Van

First you claimed I made something up can you please point out where I’m supposed to have done that?
*

Now sorry but you are clearly are not reading the posts

I was trying to explain something to you about what ‘social’ policies are I said ‘the NHS is an example so is welfare’ do you understand what giving an example means?

Have you worked out what a social policy is yet?

Not jumping and not saying that – again you really need to read what’s posted or you’ll continue to make mistakes.

The question you asked is what on earth is social policy I tried to help you by explaining it –

Social – societal – community. Pertaining to society, social provision, the NHS is an example so is welfare, but it’s also about bringing people together so the provision of social areas, transport and the funding of the arts can also come under this as is provision to lessen social exclusion and discrimination.

I’m sorry but I’m not sure I can put it any more simply without getting into the realms of finger painting.

You mean compare an apple to an orange or maybe chalk with cheese?

We are countries with completely different histories, culture, political and economic system so I’m unsure what would be the point.

 

What would be the point? The whole point of this thread. What difference is it going to make whether you are in the EU or not.

Which is something you havent answered, and no one has answered thus far. Because you all cant, theres no way you can know if your country would have been better off at this point had you never joined the EU, theres nothing to compare it too.

Hence all this gobbledygook.

I am more convinced now than ever, that none of you know what you are talking about

Whats so awesome about EU membership? free trade with countries like Slovakia, whoop-di-doo, then after that vague quasi nonsense about community or distributive justice that are somehow mutually exclusive if not an EU member


What tha hell?

 

Van

But the reality is that Japan has not been in the EU for over 40 years and Britain has and this is also likely to result in the breakup of the United Kingdom which will be a big difference.

So your argument is we and you don’t know? But you think we would have been better off and will be better off? If that so why do you think that?

What gobbledygook?

But you think you do? And what evidence do you base that on?

Are you still not sure what social and distributive policies are? I can try and explain again but please this time listen.

 

Have you seen Nigel Farage's speech

This guy is savage, 4:05 lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlN9o3g-yuA

 

I'm sure a lot of people who voted out will come to regret it. Anger and probably a degree of bewilderment are sure to follow. There's also a danger that all this plays into the agenda of the extreme right, especially as Labour seem to be on self destruct.

'Had enough of experts' - good example of the rhetoric that has led to this unfortunate result. And really, it only goes to show just how irresponsible it was of Cameron to call the vote on such a complex issue in the first place. The world of finance for example is simply way beyond the comprehension of the average voter - they don't know their footsie from their elbow, and pretty much all the financial experts were issuing dire warnings in the run up to the referendum.

I don't think the reality has hit people yet. For instance, the 6 years of austerity we've suffered will now presumably count for nothing, as any very weak recovery that was underway has now been effectively sunk. And it's people in the regions who voted for out that will probably end up being the hardest hit by even more biting cuts that are sure to come. Many will no doubt be discovering for themselves the rather unpleasant reality of having to sign on.
I'm thinking that this is all a bit like those guys who go and pay good money to some leather clad dominatrix of whip them, and then go back and pay again for another whipping. But people were fooled by the lies of the out campaign and their chums in the media. Although my own feelings towards out voters are not exactly warm at present, in the end they have been taken for a ride. Both media and government have acted as if they actually believe their own BS.

You're right that now they can't blame everything that's wrong with this country on Europe, it's going to be hard to find a new scapegoat for our friends at the Mail and the Sun. No doubt the hard right will continue to blame the immigrants, and that's not a very healthy situation for the future.

 

Bill

And this time without EU money which given the history of conservative governments is unlikely to be replaced I can only hope for their sakes.

Well after Europe it’s the migrants then is the lazy scroungers on benefits, the trade unionists, the lefties…

Reminds me of a poem

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984)

 

I may have mentioned before that my daughter works in finance at the local council. From what she tells me, the impact of the last wave of cuts has yet to come through. I assume that's true across the country and not only in my area. So even more money going from depressed areas is likely to be catastrophic in an extreme way.

But who knows? If things get bad enough just maybe people will start to see who are the real villains in all this. Even more urgent then that the opposition should sort themselves out, forget the Blair epoch (Blairism without Blair was never going to work) and get on with the job of spelling out a viable alternative strategy.

 

Meanwhile another Boris claim goes down the drain

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/28/brussels-eu-summit-leaders-push-quick-divorce-cameron-germany-brexit

 

There has been a rise in racist incidents since Brexit:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/racist-incidents-feared-to-be-linked-to-brexit-result-reported-in-england-and-wales

 

Some here have argued that we don’t know what the future outside the EU will be like because we are not there yet and it might be wonderful.

Well I thought I’d try and explain the political landscape of the UK at this moment to try and explain why we on the left in England are so worried.

Scotland

First Scotland is dominated by a left of centre government that is committed to Scottish independence from Westminster, its people voted to stay in the EU and its government is at this moment trying to negotiate their way back in. On the whole the left wingers in Scotland although angry about the English/Welsh vote for exit from the EU are not so pessimistic about the future.

England

Basically we have five basic groupings

Socialist(ish) Left
Neoliberal (ish) left
Conservative neoliberal right
Radical neoliberal right
Nationalist neoliberal right

And the grouping that has and does dominate the political arena for the last 30 years has been the neoliberals.

And if Scotland goes Westminster is likely to be dominated by the right (if you look at demographics and past voting trends).

So we are likely to get a government dominated by these three –

Conservative neoliberal right

Not against the EU because they think the free trade agreement is good for the UK economy but don’t like its social agenda and tried to block it where they could and used the EU distributive functions to fill gaps in its governments spending.

Their neoliberal agenda is by stealth with slow steps.

This group is in decline after the Out vote.

Radical neoliberal right

They disliked the EU because they saw its social and distributive policies as a block to their radical neoliberal agenda, they are ones now in ascendance in the Conservative Party.

These are the ones that are saying they might be happy to have free movement as the price for entering the European Common Market.

These people are ‘free market’ ideologues and would happily dismantle the post war welfare state.

Neoliberal Nationalist right

This is typified by UKIP (although there are others including those in the Conservative Party) and they are more xenophobic and anti-immigration they would happily take an economic hit and reject entry into the ECM if it meant having to accept freedom of movement.

There economic plan is a bit all over the place, and if you wanted to sum it up in one word that word would be ‘opportunistic’ (look at how they said they’d give the EU money to the NHS then rejected that after the EU referendum). But in basic terms they are neoliberal if not extremely neoliberal with a hard conservative edge (Farage’s great hero is Margret Thatcher)

What does this mean?

The EU referendum has moved the ruling party further to the right with the distinct possibility that the Conservative Party will move further to the right.

More fake austerity (rewards for wealth everyone else austerity) more inequality, more privatisation, more insecurity and a lot meaner place.

You see for years the right have blamed the EU for the hardships many people have felt because of their neoliberal policies, that scapegoat is gone and if they don’t find new things to blame people might work out what is the real problem.

Of course that is a worry but also might be an opportunity.

 

One problem I see coming is this: most of the neo-libs don't really want to loose access to the European single market, but Merkel has made it very clear that accepting free movement of labour within that market is a fundamental principle and there will be no backing down on that. So immigration goes on, and those who voted for Brexit thinking they were voting to end immigration become angry and disillusioned with the main parties. That will feed into more support for the extreme right (I put UKIP in that category).

Labour are in complete disarray at present, and it's hard to see how that's going to be resolved given that most of the Parliamentary Labour party want to oust Corbyn, but if it comes to a vote, the rank and file would very likely re-elect Corbyn, as he enjoys massive support, especially among younger elements.(I like Corbyn incidentally)
There's a chance Labour could split - which would be a massive gift to the Tories and the UKIP.

It might lead to more people on the left abandoning Labour for the Green party, who are about the only other socially progressive show in town. On the other hand, many working class voters might be seduced by the far right. Many are already half way there I think.

Meantime, all of this is sure to increase even further the massive disconnect between the voters and the politicians.

 

Stop being a globalist

 

I like Leanne Wood, but I'm not sure she, or the rest of Wales has enough oomph to go for it. We need a Nicola Sturgeon!