Brexit

Since this isn't about America specifically (where I know you have pressing political issues), I expect this will soon die, but here goes anyway.

Brexit - UK leaves the European Union after an in/out referendum possibly to take place later this year. As I type this on 19th Feb, David Cameron is in Brussels seeking to renegotiate the status of the UK in Europe.

Seems what they want is not to have to pay working age benefits to EU migrants who come here to work. This would include things like Child Benefit - a small payment made to all UK citizens with children, help with rents, and benefits if they loose their jobs. Many would like to see less Europeans and especially Eastern Europeans coming here to work in the first place. Despite the fact that migrant workers pay far more in taxes than they take out in benefits. Thus they make a net contribution to the UK economy.

Also the right in Britain (and many on the left for that matter) seem to have a huge desire to scupper any further moves towards European integration, so Cameron wants Europe to agree to change the wording of the original Lisbon treaty which the UK signed when we joined the then Common Market back in the 70's. They want clauses about European states moving towards 'ever greater union' taken out, or the UK to have a special clause so we don't have to go down that road.

They'd like to take the UK out of the European Human Rights legislation, and replace it with what they describe as a 'British bill of rights', which means they could then ignore the European court when it tells them they can't deport people back to countries where they would be likely to be subject to torture, unfair trial or other kinds of abuse, and a number of other contentious issues such as the right of prisoners to vote ( Cameron is on record as saying the thought of that makes him feel physically sick - poor chap should buy some bicarb).

They also want to maintain the casino that is the City of London against any kind of regulation by Europe (it's the least regulated major stock and money market in the world)

The idea anyway is that 'Dave' will secure a new deal for Britain during these current negotiations, and then we are to have the in/out referendum.

I have an uneasy feeling that he won't get a very good deal, and that in all probability, the UK will end up leaving Europe. I hope I'm wrong about that, and when it comes to a vote, people will think deeply before voting out.

IMO this would be a disaster on many levels. Firstly, and this is a matter of principle or even idealism, I think the agenda generally should be to move gradually more and more towards a unified human race, and unifying Europe is a definite stage in that long haul. One has only to look at European history to see that the various nationalisms have caused immense destruction in the past, particularly in the 20th century. It worries me that if Europe breaks up, and 'Brexit' would be stage 1 of that process, in 30 years or so we could be back to war in Europe. Or at least intense rivalry.

I also think it will be a complete disaster for the UK economy - too complex an issue to go into in detail here. Some analysts have claimed that up to 5 million jobs could go as a result, others pooh pooh the idea and say it would make us more competitive, although they don't say how.

Thing is, and it's ironic, is that Cameron himself doesn't really want to be the PM who takes us out of Europe. He's only doing this as a result of pressure from the right wing of his own party, and concerns about the growth of alternative avowedly anti-European parties who could threaten the Tories politically. A foolish and dangerous game to my mind. As usual, they put their own immediate political and class interests ahead of the good of the people of Britain as a whole.
I wonder at times if some of these idiots have noticed that the British Empire no longer exists. This anti-European sentiment is a throwback to the arrogance of that period to some extent.

Would Brexit make any difference to the rest of the world and America in particular? Obama says he thinks we should remain in the EU. Clinton likewise. I assume God knows Mr. Trump's opinion on this
For other Europeans, it would just serve to destabilize and weaken the Union.

In the long term it could cause problems for America. World War 2, which led to the formation of the EU in the first place certainly cost America dear.
Probably it would also impact on trade, and further weaken about the only ally the US has who are ever prepared to send in troops alongside US troops should it be necessary (whether or not that's a good thing is a different conversation)

 

Cameron got his deal from the other EU leaders. Really, it doesn't change much. Some control of migrant benefits, a clause to exclude the UK from aspirations to 'ever closer union'

The referendum date has been announced as 23rd June.

Cameron will be campaigning to stay in, many senior figures in his government will be backing a UK exit.

Now the squabbling will get going. Personally, I'll be voting to stay in the EU. If voters do back Brexit, it will be a dark day for both Europe and the UK.

 

Hi Bill

I get the feeling this is going to just us two and since we seem to basically agree it’s likely to be a short thread.

But I thought I give you my thoughts if anything for myself if not anyone else.

De Gaulle was right when he famously vetoed Britain’s entry into what would become the EU. He didn’t think Britain as a nation thought of itself as European and so had little interest in the ‘European Project’ which was form the beginning the idea of ever greater union as a means and to the end of stopping the wars that had devastated Europe since the fall of the Western Roman Empire. De Gaulle thought that Britain would have to undergo a “radical transformation" before it would actually sign up to the project. I think that he thought that the only reason Britain wanted to join was to get into the market, all the easier to sell British goods to the French Germans Italians etc, but the common market was only ever a means to an end, the end been that ever closer union.

And the politicians that wanted into the European union sold it as such as a market place with very little said about the project and when we did get in the Little Britain nationalists and the wealth owned media have been railing against the ever closer union, using all the dark arts of spin, innuendo and often straight out lying.

The BBC did a piece on what people from around Europe thought of the referendum and a couple of comments from a German and a French woman are telling

[SIZE=11pt]German – “My feeling is that countries who do not believe in the values of the EU should leave the union. It will be better for the remaining countries, because only then can they create a real democratic, governed and socially united Europe”[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]French – “For me, Europe is about more than just free trade. It is also about sticking together and preventing another world war. It is about sharing the same democratic values and principles”[/SIZE]

*

The EU isn’t perfect I have many criticisms of it (balbus with criticisms, never) but in a lot of ways it is a victim of its own ideals, its success and circumstance.

In many was the EU seems based on emotion not reason, of the heart overruling the head, coming as it did out of a desire to end wars, the EU often seems to take steps forward before really thinking things through (or in the hope that taking the step will produce the momentum to move forward) for example the Euro was a great idea, a common currency, but it needed a common financial policy.

The union began with six countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands)

[SIZE=11pt]and has grown ever since because countries wanted to join it. To me it probably reached its ‘natural’ size in 1986 with West Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdom, Greece, Spain and Portugal (although I think the UK wasn’t committed and Greece unready) it was a number that could be worked with so in my view it needed to stop there and consolidate. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]The big tragedy for the EU was the collapse of Soviet Russia, West Germany was distracted by reunification with East Germany (creating a politically unbalancing of the EU) and lots of soviet satellites wanted to join the EU as protection against the Russian bear. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]So we now have an EU with 28 members with others still seeking entry, it is much more difficult to weld that number of states together but not impossible (it has taken 58 years from the treaty of Rome today to get to 28 states in the US from the 1787 it took 58 years for it to reach 28 states although I’d be the first to say they are many difference)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]*[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]I think it would be madness to leave, those that somehow think Britain could go it alone I don’t think understand the real world. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]What would we gain and what would we lose?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]We supposedly gain sovereignty our Parliament will be free to do as it wishes without ‘interference’ from Europe. But the world is interconnected and if we want to trade with others we have to follow their rules and regulations and the place we most trade with are countries in the EU, we would still have to follow their rules it just that from outside we just wouldn’t have a say in what those rules were.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Oh we could then not have to comply with the European human rights act but honestly when is saying you don’t want to uphold human rights a good thing?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]So what would we lose well probably Scotland for a start and Wales would be even more devastated than it has been and might even want to follow.[/SIZE]


[SIZE=11pt]Things have changed in the UK once we did have a healthy manufacturing base but Maggie devastated that and a lot of industries and companies come here because they the governments have been more ‘business friendly’ than other EU countries but also in the EU so they can sell their goods within Europe, with Brexit to attract such companies we would have to counter the fact we were outside the EU by being even more ‘business friendly’ (come on you Brits bend over).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]What we have now is an overly powerful services sector headed by an overly powerful financial sector. Now many in the speculative areas of gives little thought to anyone outside it.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]*[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]So what of the future for the EU well the problem is that many in Europe I think what we are going to get and what I think the project needs is a core and the others. A core based most likely with those countries inside the Euro. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]But having said that without Britain within the EU that core and the wider EU would be even more dominated by the Germans. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]*[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]I personally want the project to succeed a divided Europe could spiral once more into squabbling and worse. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]I also think Britain leaving wouldn’t be in the best interests of the people of Britain and especially the English or in the best interests of the EU. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]*[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Anyway probably have some more thoughts later but that’s enough for now. [/SIZE]

 

[SIZE=11pt]Did you hear Ian Duncan Smith claiming that Britain would be more likely to be attacked by terrorists by staying in the EU [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]What next is the UK more susceptible to illness or climate change because we are part of the EU and the sun will always shine and we will all live until we are a 100 if we leave. [/SIZE]

 

I agree pretty much with your comments in the earlier post. To me it seems like madness to leave, and I would very much prefer it if Britain was more committed to the central goal of greater European integration. I agree that the EU is far from perfect and there are many issues that need to be resolved, but the UK should definitely be in.

IDS is simply scaremongering with this nonsense about increased risk of attack. People like him would like to take us back to some imaginary version of the 19th century it seems to me.
I also noticed that Gove's comment that the deal Cameron secured could be picked apart by European courts etc is equally false, as has been made clear. The deal would be binding on other EU governments.

I suspect that if the UK votes to leave, it will spell the end for the union, as Scotland will want to go independent and remain a full member. Also that after chucking such a big spanner in the works, we wouldn't get a very good deal on trade and so on with the rest of Europe. In effect, the 'little englanders' would take us into further decline and erosion of worker's rights, human rights, climate protection and the rest. I see this as old fashioned class interest hijacking the political agenda. Really, as long as they have their City of London casino, I don't think they really care much about the people of this country.

On the other hand if the vote goes the way we want it to, it will be a huge blow to what I see as a particularly obnoxious section of the right in this country.We might see the back of people like Johnson and Farage, even old IDS. The whole Europe issue would be dead for many years to come.

 

Bill

Well with the official launch of the campaign I thought we might swop views at this point.

Well it seems to have shaped up much as I thought I would .

[SIZE=16pt]In [/SIZE]

Background music Abba’s ‘Money, money, money’
They bang on about the detrimental economic impact of leaving.

[SIZE=14pt]Out[/SIZE]

Background music – Elgar and Benon’s ‘Land of home and glory’
A lot of talk about the ‘great British people’ – ‘freedom from Brussels overlords’ and always in the background - immigration.

*

It’s a heart and heads thing.

 

Can't really think of much to add to that.

I suppose there's Corbyn's remarks about a 'bonfire of rights' if we come out. Not that I expect that to have much impact. But people should think hard. Do they really trust the tories to look after their rights? If so they are clearly delusional.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvhOCU8fCYk&feature=youtu.be

 

I find it disgusting that Cameron has invited Obama to way his opinion on what Britain should do; against the wishes of most of the Parliament.

I like this quote from Londons Mayor:

"I just think it's paradoxical that the United States, which wouldn't dream of allowing the slightest infringement of its own sovereignty, should be lecturing other countries about the need to enmesh themselves ever deeper in a federal superstate," Johnson said Tuesday.

 

Hi Bill

Well the two sides (both seemingly conservative WHERE is Labour?) seem to becoming more shrill as the vote gets closer, but they are still singing the same song as before just louder and increasingly high pitched.

But I’m increasingly fearful that all the doom and gloom coming down from on high from the remain side is going to really backfire.

The leave side have by far the worse argument s consisting of lies and uplifting pie in the sky stuff about Britain’s rosily future outside. But it is uplifting as are Boris in his German battle bus and Farage and his German wife they don’t seem to be putting forward anything coherent but they are doing it in a light-hearted and jolly fashion.

It also doesn’t help that many people seem to think that Britain can just hop back in to the EU again if we don’t like it outside.

I heard one person the other day that seemed to think it was OK to vote out this time because it was like a General Election and in five years he could vote to return, he seemed genuinely shocked when I point out the truth.

I think such people just don’t realise just how many concessions Britain has got, from our rebate to all the opt-outs, which would all be lost if in the future the British people want to get back in, not to mention that as a ‘new’ member the UK would have to accept the Euro.

 

I'm not a very political animal, but being married to a Frenchman has given me some insight into the benefits of a united Europe with the UK remaining a major player. There has been plenty of arguing about the economic benefits of either staying or leaving, but working in the NHS I now understand the advantage of being in, so many of the workers who do the menial & frankly dirty tasks are from eastern Europe, they are paid minimum wages which were set by the EU, I wonder if they would have got even that if we had never been part of the EU. Then there is maternity & paternity rights, all thanks to the EU.
With the US looking likely to elect that misogynistic maniac Trump, we can kiss the "special relationship" goodbye, just as Putin's Russia is getting ever more belligerent & expansionist, why would we even want to cut ourselves off from our nearest neighbours? The rose tinted view that Britain will be great again when we leave is just so much tosh, we haven't been great since well before the first world war!
I know which way I will be voting!

 

I'm for anything that keeps the Germans in check. They've been causing civilization trouble since the days of Rome. I hope Britain stays in the EU. I'm old enough to remember the old guys who'd been to war. I know families who had relatives exterminated.

I'm not a German-hater. I just want that continent united.

 

I think Brexit will benefit the Uk in the short run. They can re-enter later once the EU gets it's shit together. I have a hunch that the UK is facing too much pressure to stay in, and it won't go through.

 

The EU is a fascist, globalist body which is completely unaccountable to the people and a building block to the global elite's New World Order. I can see why Britons want out, but I just don't see it happening. Hitler was one of the first people to openly call for a European Union.

 

And that would be the Brits?

Funny guy.

 

Hitler tried to create his own European Union.

 

The UK must leave the EU to put a stop to the mass invasion of their land by migrants.

 

http://grrrgraphics.com/uploads/7/4/7/3/74734153/7042595_orig.jpg

 

No they must do it to stop all the brits from moving to Spain.