A human body weight simulator. There is a button about midway down the page to start the simulator. Java needs to be enabled. http://www.niddk.nih.gov/research-funding/at-niddk/labs-branches/LBM/integrative-physiology-section/body-weight-simulator/Pages/body-weight-simulator.aspx This model predicts changes in body weight as a function of various parameters. It takes into account the terms in the energy balance equation and temporal aspects that Lyle McDonald discussed in the other thread (the energy balance equation). The yardstick of a pound of body fat being equivalent to about 3500 calories doesn't consider various parameters in the energy balance equation or temporal aspects. This is why the 3500 rule doesn't give accurate results. The price for a more accuracy is a more complex mathematical model.
A conversation with Kevin Hall. http://sigmanutrition.com/episode88/ Hall developed an accurate energy balance model which is posted above. He mentions it in the conversation and discusses various current areas of research related to body weight control.