2020 Election

Ironically for me its been the exact opposite. Barely noticed his comin' or his passin'

 

You've kept up with him in recent years? I take it he's still alive.

 

Current polls indicate that a Byden/Beto ticket could beat Trump. And that's before the Mueller report and subpoena of Trump's tax returns.

 

I think I agree with VG here. I don't think they are going to be able to impeach. I think they'll sure go through the motions though. It just ain't gonna happen without Mueller indicting him of some "high crime" or whatever. Collusion is a crime that we learned about in school as business students. But it seems pretty vague as to whether or not something actually equates collusion. So, that's going to be hard to prove without cooperation from either him or Russia. I think everything so far has been from third parties though so it's basically hearsay and he said she said. I wish there were a real good way to prove high crime.

They could also try to say mentally unfit, but again it wouldn't stick if you ask me. I think that he has a brain he's just calculating according to what he interprets the collective logic of the American citizenry. Unfortunately, I feel that there may be some merit to the assumption that we're simply a bunch of asshats feeding off of whatever we see on television or twitter.

 

Same kind of polls that said Hillary would win?

 

They certainly can invoke articles of impeachment, whether he's actually removed from office is a coin flip at this point. The political strategist, one of the only ones, that predicted he'd win months before the election also predicted impeachment - meaning removal - in 2019. None of us know what Mueller has or how congress reacts to any charges that come against Trump. Part of congresses reaction will for sure be a result of if congress feels an association with Trump is a liability to their own reelection or funding. That's all utterly impossible to predict. What we know for sure based on what's in the public record is Trump likely will be charged with something. The FBI has a 95% conviction rate. He's almost certainly guilty of both collusion and obstruction of justice. That's all well within the boundaries of "high crimes and misdemeanors." The economic signs are very poor and respected Republicans are turning against him both in his administration and at large. It's highly likely he continues to do a whole lot more stupid, racist, bigoted, etc shit that'll factor into his ultimate fate. Who knows at this point what will happen.

 

The same polls that predicted a "blue wave" in 2918. And there was!
https://nypost.com/2018/11/05/trump-optimistic-as-polls-predict-blue-wave-in-midterm-elections/
Polls are a snapshot in time. It's far too early to predict who is going to win in 2020. But right now, Trump's polls aren't so hot.
Donald Trump’s approval rating equals his all-time low as Americans blame him for the government shutdown: Poll
How Popular Is Donald Trump?
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#!
Trump continues to cater to his dwindling base, instead of reaching out to the broader electorate. He could get away with it when the winds of a strong economy were at his back and the Republican Congress had his back, but he's recently been encountering headwinds as a result of his trade wars policy and impulsive decisions on foreign policy and the government shutdown.
How Trump's Trade Policies Actually Damage US Economy
President Trump should stop his trade war before it hurts our economy
Trump’s wildly unpopular foreign policy, in 2 polls
So we'll see. A lot will depend on him, and how he responds to the challenges ahead, including the Mueller probe and House investigations.
Meanwhile, the best we can do is rely on the best evidence available--the far from infallible but often reliable polls, which suggest that Trump is beatable.
Trump Can't Even Beat an Unnamed Democratic Candidate in 2020 Election Poll
Poll: Democrats who could beat Trump in 2020
The 3 Democrats that Republican insiders fear most in 2020
Joe Biden could beat Trump, says GOP lawmaker

 

Word for word your response is right out of the republican right-wing handbook.


So every poll from now on must be wrong because Dewey wins the election, Duh!

 

Oh, we Democrts learn from history. Then ignore the lessons.

 

Genuine liar, genuine moron, genuine sociopath...

 

Yup--you nailed trump exactly!

 

If we're going back to Dewey, then yes, they should be suspect and forced to earn back any trust with more accurate, un-skewed polling. Since Truman's time political polling has failed famously on many occasions. So this is not a 1-off issue. If anything it's the perfect time for a purge and replacement of the polling systems that failed so famously in 2016.

Consider how things may have gone if it wasn't portrayed as a Hillary landslide. Lots of folks who procrastinated voting were handed the perfect excuse to instead order another beer. After all, she was beating Trump like a red-headed step horse!

Or was she?

Regardless, it's an opportunity for a more reliable way of polling to emerge. The current methods are as defunct as the 1990s Clinton playbook.

 

Ooh... A Biden/O'rourke amdministration would be awesome! I could get excited about that; at least more so than Senator Warren for example.

 

If I were a straight-voting democrat, I'd be pissed off at this point for being strung along time after time by the mainstream media. Telling me that my queen had the election in the bag against Orange Man. And the promises that Mueller is going to scrounge up something credible enough to take down Orange Man. That MSNBC's live report of Orange Man's 2005 tax returns were going to lead to his arrest. And on... and on... and on.....

 

But you're not a Democrat, straight voting and otherwise. Your statement is as absurd as saying if I were a farmer I'd be pissed off that the weathermen told me there was a low chance of hail on Tuesday--and it hailed and ruined my crops! (which I never planted, because I'm not realy a farmer). Polls are simply a snapshot in time, subject to many variables, and not an exact science; and the news media can't be faulted for simply reporting them. Orange Man hasn't yet released his tax returns, but the Democrats in the House now have the ability to get them. It remains to be seen whether or not there's any there there. Mueller has 36 indictments under his belt. We'll see if anything comes of his investigation. Pollsters and media reporters aren't psychic, but we shouldn't would dismiss them because of occasional failures to predict the future, which they don't claim to be able to do anyhow.

 

smmfh

 

There have been so many announced "bombshells" in the last couple of years that it's exhausting trying to keep up with them. Especially since most petered out to nothing.

One thing is for certain though, above a certain class point, the laws just aren't the same as they are for the rest of us. Regardless of politics.

I wonder how some of this will pan out in the 2020 slog. I doubt if it will be any more polite than 2016. Yes, that was a joke. The only ones being "polite" were all the GOP losers who got slapped with a nickname by Trump. But nobody was buying their attempt to play the victim card. I think the democrats really enjoyed watching Trump make fools of the GOP.

I know I did!

 

Polling is not perfect but it’s definitely getting better. We talk about it here in the context of election polling but it’s not in reality one thing. There’s big money in data science and methods to collect information and make predictions for it have become very sophisticated. You see that all the time in targeted advertising. Sure sometimes I’ll get an ad for boxer briefs but by and large the algorithms are right. It’s also fine for it is. It’s just a pulse check. It’s not meant to be 100% accurate.

 

Everybody, just calm down! Look on the bright side! Biden/O'Rourke!

...

.........

 

Many of us are pissed off. It's just the establishment Democrats who are okay with it. They won't stand by any real change in this country, so all they have to fall back on is demonizing the other guy, deluding themselves into thinking that the rest of us are just as easily led down the primrose path as they are. They're actually so caught up in this Trump hate that they think everyone is on board again, go Democrats. Sadly, they could not be more mistaken. We left the Democratic party in 2016. I guess after we didn't vote for Hillary, either, despite the prospect of Trump, they still don't think we're serious.

We want real change, just as we did in 2016. Evidently this is too much for establishment Democrats to be able to comprehend. They don't need our votes anyway, though. Just throw Biden up there and watch him try to carry the whole thing on a slick smile and some superficial charm. Oh, with the charming and naive Beto to back him up. Yeah, that'll work out.

I, for one, would like a real President. By which I mean someone whose modus operandi is to look out for the American people. There are still politicians like that. Few and far between, but they're there. What's the point of a President if you settle for anything less? Quality standards just keep sinking lower and lower until all we've got now is "He's better than Trump!" What about "Man, I REALLY admire this person"?