A friend just stopped by- a US GI on leave from Iraq. He says the rumors over there are flying, but they all agree on one thing: The US is going into Iran. Say it ain't so!
Umm...It ain't so. The United States simply does not have the resources or manpower to invade another country.
I just hope this isn't the start of WWIII. I've seen so many things Biblical and not about this scenario that I can't even believe things are playing out just like what is written. Assination of the Lebanese PM, fall of their gov, etc.
I think if the US does go into Iran the scenario will be something like this: -- The US launches limited bombing raids on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities (essentially creating de facto "dirty bombs") -- Iran retaliates against US troops near the Iran/Iraq border . . or the US stages an event that looks like Iranian retaliation -- The President goes to Congress asking for and getting the authority to invade Iran. Congress won't approve a large scale "preemptive" attack on Iran, but the war powers provisions of both the law and the constitution have been weakened so severely that the President wouldn't think twice about small scale bombing. Then, once Iran retaliated, the images of more dead US soldiers wouls make it hard for Congress to say no to an invasion. I hope we are all wrong and that none of this unfolds.
You really can't say that we won't because who knows? Only one that really knows is Bush and his croonies. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we did end up in Iran.
If we were to go any where, besides home, I'm currently leaning towards Syria. Iran is in the middle of negotiations with the rest of Europe and the International Atomic Energy Commission. I don't know if Syria is in the middle of any high profile negotiations. Besides, Syria has better beaches and shopping than Iran.
I am certain we will invade Iran, or at least begin with a massive air assault on the country. Former UN weapons inspector, Scott Ritter, has said that June will be the month in which we will invade Iran. Scott Ritter was right about no WMD's in Iraq, and I have no reason to believe he would be lying about this. Ritter has a lot of insider ties, so I am sure what he said is true. I wish it wasn't, but I think it is. We've already been flying unmanned drones over Iran and conducting secret operations in the country for several months now, so we are obviously gearing up for something fairly big.
I think we could certainly invade Iran - because not only do we already have horrific weaponry that can be unleashed with very little manpower, we have horrific weaponry that none of us even know about, and which could be happily "tested" on Iran - and which probably involves robotics far more than human power.
I'm not saying we'll never have a conflict with Iran...but it seems unlikely that anything (other than perhaps a very limited airstrike) is in the works at the moment. I'm sure the idea has been kicked around the Pentagon, but they've probably reached the conclusion that a major war with Iran would simply not be practical given the current geopolitical situation, as well as America's current military and financial situation. If anything was in the works, troops would be mobilizing for a major attack, which they simply are not doing. Also, Bush would probably be badmouthing Iran much more than he currently is, on a comparable level to the way he talked about Saddam Hussein prior to the Iraq war.
But. . .why? Everyone knows the whole Iraq conflict is fucked up, but there's motivation behind it - diverting the people from domestic problems, oil, etc. We don't have the manpower or resources. All I can see the retards in power gaining from an invasion of Iran is political suicide.
I doubt it will happen, but then I wouldn't put anything past bush. The US just doesn't have the manpower to conduct a "three front war" (Iraq, Afganistan, Iran). The Army/Marine recruiting is off, the Reserve/Guard recruiting is way off and they account for 40% of the ground forces and the troups aren't re-enlisting at the rate the flag officers are stating. If it does happen, I would not at all be surprised if talk of "impeachment" might surface. bush supporters will run like rats leaving a sinking ship and bush WILL get his leagacy, being the most hated president of all time. If it does happen, the republican's will take an ass kicking in the midterm elections (2006) and probably again in 2008 (watch out for Hillary).
