Predictions on the Marriage Equality Cases

Anyone care to venture a prediction on the outcome of the two marriage equality cases before the SCOTUS this week?

Personally, I think DOMA will be ruled unconstitutional by at least a 6-3 margin, perhaps 7-2. Scalia and Thomas will vote to affirm its constitutionality, while Alito is a mystery to me. The rest will determine that it is indeed unconstitutional.

The Prop 8 case is a bit more murky, because there are a variety of different things the court could do. Just based on what I've heard of the oral arguments this morning, it appears that there is little sympathy for affirming Prop 8 as constitutional.

 

I think it is murky because, if you get down to it, no ones rights are being violated by either measure. No one has a right to have their marriage recognized.

I hope that DOMA will be struck down and that the federal government will get out of the marriage debate all together.

That said, I think on purely constitutional grounds, there is no cause to strike down Prop 8. It deals with powers not otherwise delegated to the federal government, which means it is up to each state to decide which types of marriages they choose to recognize as being legal.

 

That's not the point. The point is, if one couple's right to have their marriage recognized officially exists (and that issue is not before the court), then everyone should have the right. You can't treat different people differently.

The Prop 8 case is not that simply constructed. Rights were given, then taken away. Is that constitutional? Is it constitutional for the rights of some citizens to be up for a vote by the general populace?

 

We treat people differently all the time in legal and official capacities. It's nothing new. That said, again, I hope DOMA will be struck down and suspect it will be.

It is when we are dealing with "rights" not otherwise guaranteed in the Constitution. This is entirely a state matter.

 

That's true, but for each case there is a compelling governmental interest in doing so. No one has been able to construct a rational, legally defensible case that the government has a compelling interest in prohibiting same sex couples from getting married.

Equal protection under the law is indeed a federal constitutional matter (and thus the reason the SCOTUS took up the cases to begin with). Again, it's not the right to get married, but the right to be treated equally under the law.

 

I agree. That is why I suspect DOMA will, rightly, be struck down.

Right, and the precedent has already been set for so called rights not guaranteed under the US Constitution. No state in this country prohibits anyone from getting married to whomever they chose. Some states, however, choose not to recognize some types of marriage.

EDIT: I should add that I wouldn't be surprised if Prop 8 is also struck down. The SC has shown it has a very open view of things like the EPC and Interstate commerce.

 

What?

I don't think the Prop 8 case is that broad. In fact, I suspect the court will either decide that those who brought the appeal lack the standing to do so (basically leaving the 9th Circuit ruling that Prop 8 was unconstitutional intact), or overturn Prop 8 and apply it only to California. I'd be surprised if they were bold enough to write a decision that applies nationwide. They could surprise everyone, though. lol

 

I agree that, whatever the outcome (strike down or uphold), the SC's ruling will apply to California alone.

 

Sounds like they may punt on Prop 8. At least that means that the earlier ruling striking it down will remain in place.

 

I like this news...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/27/us-usa-court-gaymarriage-idUSBRE92P04820130327