A while ago I was asking people how the recession was affecting them. Now, supposedly, the economy is on the rebound. Have you personally noticed any rebound?
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ29-2009oct29,0,5281786.story Government report is expected to mark end to recession Forecasters say the report is likely to show the economy resumed growth in the third quarter after four straight quarters of contraction. But positive GDP numbers are unlikely to spur hiring.
To me this seems like a technical recovery rather than a ‘real’ recovery so I’m not sure there should be any celebrations just yet. Now while a bastard form of Keynesianism has stabilised a bad situation and stopped a complete economic collapse we’re not out of the woods yet and if things aren’t managed well it could all turn to shit. There is a huge bill to be paid -how and when it is paid will have a great impact on the economy, but paid at some point and in some way it will have to be. Also ‘free marketeers’ haven’t gone away (its not surprising to me that in the UK the Murdock clan has stopped supporting ‘New Labour’ just at the point when New labour re-discovered Keynes and moved away from neo-liberal ideas) Which means we could end up with the same problem of long term neo-liberalist policies being pursued that inevitably need short term Keynesian fixes. A case of wealth gaining the profits in the booms and everyone else paying for the busts. So I think there are a lot of people holding there breath with their fingers crossed and a lot of places that are not hiring, they’re not sacking which is good thing but they’re just not replacing staff that are going.
No, my city is experiencing one of the highest employment rates in the country. My province is now holding a $24 billion deficit, and the federal gov is going to blossom to about a $60 billion deficit with a Conservative gov in power. The auto-sector and manufacturing/trade jobs are suffering here, my province has become a have not. Haha, but I'm Canadian so I'm used to complaining, eh?
Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator - it wouldn't be expect to start falling the moment the economy starts growing. So I wouldn't expect people to feel the rebound through the job market first. We have some small business people here that might be quicker to sense a recovery.
Well consumer sales and retail stores are not fairing any better in Ontario. What are key indicators that there is a turn around? I'll let you know if I see them.
The question is how much of this growth is actual growth. Most of it is just government spending, not actual organic growth of the economy.
Good point. I mean, is there actual productive investments taking place, or are banks and financial institutions profiting in unproductive terms? Because so all I have witnessed is ... well, no real rebound on either levels.
If there ever was a time for heroes,now is it.What I mean is,is that the companies that fled this country to escape taxes and make their products with really cheap labor--should come home.Never happen ,of course.Being self employed,we've been able to get thru pretty well.We're at something like 14 % unemployment here,so lots of people are hurting.
I think government stimulus did boost the number. Cash for clunkers and the home buyers credit. But excluding that effect it looks like the economy would still have managed some expansion. There was less inventory contraction (inventory contraction shrinks GDP) which is a sign that manufacturers see demand picking up so are increasing production to match it rather than just running down inventories. A key indicator for October confirmed this, with producers "new orders" showing continued strength. With a weaker dollar and stronger economies abroad exports should help.
