Is Mexico About to Collapse?

Outgoing CIA chief Michael Hayden listed Mexico next to Iran as a possible top challenge for President Barack Obama.
http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/world/01/25/0125mexico.html

Mexico as a failed state will require U.S. military intervention
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/7883

The simple economics suggest the government doesn’t stand a chance.
A whopping 40 percent of Mexico’s budget is derived from oil sales.
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=5902.0.112.0

Mexico’s Peso Stuns UBS With Biggest Drop Since 1995
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aE_iJ8Ff6QT4&refer=home

The 3 biggest sources of income for Mexico Oil (is dropping and will sink when contracts run out) money sent home from the U.S. (is dropping) Tourism (is dropping/sinking).

Will we see Mexico become an outlaw war zone?

Looks like so long for the NAFTA taking over the region. (another Alex Jones “prediction” FAIL..

 

mexico has already collapsed in every way but on paper..

before its over with united states forces will be in mexico..
Why you ask? because mexicos military and police have been so infiltrated by the drug gangs that they cannot effectively bring the civil war masked as a drug war under control..

 

someone on another board i visit posts a weekly intelligence report for mexico. ive been reading for a couple months now.. its beyond bad down there..

here is this the last one(all in all a slow week there)..

Posted for fair use....
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200...mo_jan_26_2009

Mexico Security Memo: Jan. 26, 2009

January 26, 2009 | 2243 GMT

Related Special Topic Page

• Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels

Cartel Enforcer Arrested in Tijuana

Authorities in Tijuana, Baja California state, announced the capture this past week of Santiago “El Pozolero” Meza Lopez, among the most notorious enforcers of the Tijuana cartel. Military forces detained Meza and two accomplices, who were in a vehicle traveling along a highway near Tijuana. The soldiers recovered an array of weapons from the vehicle, including fragmentation grenades and a Barrett .50 caliber rifle. The three suspects surrendered after briefly attempting to evade the soldiers, who were prompted by an anonymous tip on where and when Meza would be traveling. Several days later, a group of gunmen opened fire on a nearby police station, in what authorities believe was a retaliatory action for Meza’s arrest.

Meza is thought to have worked for the Arellano Felix organization for approximately 10 years, though in recent months he has reportedly worked for the faction of the cartel led by Teodoro “El Teo” Garcia Simental. His notoriety stems from the gruesome job he allegedly performed for the cartel: disposing of the remains of victims killed by cartel hit men. According to authorities, Meza admitted to having dissolved some 300 bodies in sodium hydroxide, and then burying or burning the remaining body parts, though authorities believe the number of bodies could actually be much higher.

By all accounts, Meza appears to have played strictly an enforcement role for El Teo, and although the two were reportedly close, his arrest will most likely be inconsequential to the organization. The other accomplices, however, were reportedly low-level assistants of El Teo, who would likely have access to useful operational details regarding his movements and safe houses. More important for this case are the implications of what it means for the country’s cartel war. While police in Tijuana occasionally report discovering the charred remains of teeth and bones in barrels, Meza’s reputation for thoroughness in his task raises the very real possibility that the city’s actual cartel body count could be much higher than previously estimated, and points to the difficulty of investigating these crimes.

It is also interesting to note that Meza’s capture matches a pattern of successful arrests by military forces in Tijuana. One aspect of this success involves the ongoing feud between rival factions of the Tijuana cartel. Anonymous tip lines established by military commanders there have no doubt benefited from divisions in the Tijuana cartel, where partners-turned-rivals are willing and able to provide tactical intelligence on their former associates. As the turf battles there continue, such arrests can be expected to continue.

Setbacks in Federal Police Reform Plans

Several press reports released this past week suggest that Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s plans to integrate and reform Mexico’s federal police agencies have been delayed due to the large number of corruption cases that have been uncovered over the past few months. One result of these corruption investigations — which led to the arrests of some 30 officials in the attorney general’s anti-organized crime unit, not to mention the country’s drug czar — have led to skepticism about the plan among some Calderon administration officials. One solution has been to replace existing civilian officials in the Public Security Secretariat (SSP) with military officers, mostly at the flag grade. According to one uncorroborated report, five of the six officials initially appointed by the SSP have been replaced in this way.

It is unclear if the former officials resigned or were fired, or whether there were any allegations of corruption among them. Provided the reports are true, this revelation underscores the fundamental problems that Mexico’s federal law enforcement and judicial institutions face in fighting the war against the cartels.

In addition, the trend of militarizing the command and control of law enforcement is one that Stratfor has observed over the past year, particularly at the municipal level in states like Baja California. A Stratfor source in the Mexican government reported that military officers who assume civilian law enforcement duties only do so if they are retired or on leave. While this requirement helps to avoid the legal questions associated with placing police under the command of military officers, the continuing exposure of the armed forces to the cartel war raises the likelihood that they will increasingly become tainted by corruption. Despite this risk, the Calderon administration is faced with the reality that Mexico’s armed forces remain the most reliable tool available to the government. Nonetheless, the military’s limitations in this fight are well known, and expanding military authority into civilian law enforcement risks overextending the armed forces even further.

Jan. 19

• A police officer in Tijuana, Baja California state, was wounded when he was shot multiple times by gunmen traveling in a vehicle with California license plates.
• At least 16 organized crime-related homicides were reported in Chihuahua state, including the fatal shooting of a police commander outside Ciudad Juarez.

Jan. 20

• Police in Santa Isabel, Chihuahua state, found the bodies of six unidentified individuals with gunshot wounds. Authorities believe the victims were killed elsewhere.
• Police in Nogales, Sonora state, found three underground tunnels under construction, which were believed to be intended for use by drug traffickers.
• Three severed heads were found inside a cooler in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. A decapitated body was found a short distance away. Authorities believe one of the heads may belong to a police officer who had been kidnapped several days before.
• A police officer in Loreto, Zacatecas state, died when he was shot multiple times in a firefight with a group of gunmen.
• The husband of the mayor of Tiquicheo, Michoacan state, was wounded when he was shot at least 12 times by a group of gunmen.

Jan. 21

• The mayor of Huehuetla, Hidalgo state, confirmed that he had fired all of the town’s 25 police officers. It is unclear why he fired the officers.
• A textile salesman in Moroleon, Guanajuato state, was shot to death when he resisted an apparent kidnapping attempt.

Jan. 22

• Authorities in Durango, Durango state, reported the death of one man and his 3-year-old son during a grenade attack on their home.

Jan. 23

• The well-known owner of a supermarket chain was killed when he was shot once in the chest in Tijuana, Baja California state, in what authorities described as an attempted carjacking.
• A federal agent died in Oaxaca, Oaxaca state, when he was shot multiple times by gunmen in a truck and on a motorcycle.
• At least 17 people were killed over a 24-hour period in Chihuahua state, including eight in the state capital Chihuahua.

Jan. 25

• Mexican army forces arrived in Villanueva, Zacatecas state, and disarmed the city’s approximately 50 police officers as they assumed public safety authority in the town. The military deployment appears to have been prompted by a series of protests in the city by residents expressing concern over an increase in kidnappings in the area.

 

it already is.

i dont see it that way,i believe we will send troops down there.

in time the unrest will be quelled,a decision will be made to protect mexicos southern border,saying its to control the drug flow from south america.
the border restrictions here will be loosened and nafta/the nau will be one step closer to implementation.. factoring in the possible collapse of their government and the union between the two nations could be complete..

as with any geopolitical time frame,this wont be a overnight thing.

 

Oh we haven’t seen anything yet..

Mexico is still considered fairly safe to travel and financially well off compared to other unstable countries in Latin America.
Then there is a world of difference between unstable and all out collapse of a country..Like the revolutionary wars in El Salvador and Nicaragua or the backwoods of Colombia.

The Red forces will be all over Mexico. Mexico is Checkmate.

The U.S. is falling way backwards on any kind of profitable trade and open boarders with this whole scenario. We are going from full on control to full on fight to keep control, Fairly free boarders to dangerous war zone boarders.
We had a puppet government we could send a couple a billion every few years to keep control, to send troops down for a guerrilla war in a country the size of Mexico.. Hundreds of billions (of money the U.S. doesn’t have).

All for what to set up another puppet government that we already had?

Big step backwards for NAFTA.

 

only time will tell who is right and who is wrong on whats gonna happen.. i guess we will just have to wait and see..

 

I'm Mexican and afraid to say this: THIS COUNTRY IS SINKING IN SHIT!!!
There are so many nasty things going on: The president and all his company is a group of idiots that are only looking forward money and trying to look good in front of the rest of the world, while there are people dying everyday because of the insecurity (only in this month I think we've reached the half of people that was assasinated last year). Nobody can feel completely secure anywhere, is horrible.
And also that stupid think with the peso: everything is getting higher and higher all the time!
How I wish I could go somewhere else in the world...

 

only because the news isnt reporting it. i assure you its far worse than you seem to believe it is.. just ask beatle girl..

all the more justification for the use of US troops and the focus being on securing the southern border..

like i said,only time will tell whos scenario is correct..

 

Exactly If you could see the news reports in Mexico (even though media has always been sold to the goverment) you may understand it. Is horrible really...sometimes even feel a little ashamed when other people ask me about the country and tell me comments like "I thought you didn't really have problems inside Mexico"...I really hate that, Mexico as a country (you can see it: historical importance, all the good things it has in its monumets, lands, etc) just for a bunch of people who only think on themselves...

 

Oh it can get Alot worse compared to a lot of Mexico neighbors (San Salvador, Managua) it is still a fairly safe place.

Mexico GDP Pre capita income-$14,400
Nicaragua GDP Pre capita income-$3,000
Honduras GDP Pre capita income $3,700

It still can get much worse, In central America Mexico is considered a wealthy country,right now..

We already had troops on the southern boarder they were U.S. sponsored Mexican troops much cheaper then regular U.S. troops.

There is noting to gain by sending U.S. troops to Mexico only lost $.

Not even in a sci-fi illuminati taking over the world scenario , there is just no realistic beneficial strategy.

 

Most people from Mexico tell me about the same thing. Beautiful country but corrupt people ruined it.

I can’t say to much about it I stayed in Mexico for 2 winters before but that not really enough to know much about a country. But I must say all the officials police, mayors ect that I ran into were not very honest.

I do hope the rescission doesn’t hurt Mexico that much..

 

how many murders per day in those countries??

im not talking about per capita income,i am talking about a all out civil war between drug cartels(cartel against cartel) and the government.

they are beheading people at a rate that would make the Taliban blush..
almost 9000 murders last year (over 6000 drug related) with every week the rate per week increasing faster than the week before .

you think its safe to travel there because the governments on both sides are covering up the murders and kidnappings of foreigners..

like i said,ive been reading that weekly security report for months now,as well as frequenting sites that dig for the truth and its a all out war there..

the cartels have every weapon the military has right down to helicopters,the best communications equipment,you name it they got it..

.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1232...html#printMode

your original question was "will mexico become a outlaw war zone? my answer to that question stands..

it already is..
tell beatle girl its not a outlaw war zone. im sure she would beg to differ.

 

Thousands of gringos still go vacation and play in Mexico with out incident.
All of these murders are happening by the border there is still elderly Americans going into Tijuana and Nogales to get cheap prescriptions and 18 year old collage kid going over to drink margaritas and Californian house wifes buying wicker baskets.
War Zone?

Can you buy a spring break vacation package to San Salvador or Managua?
It would be hard to find.. why? Possibly because of security concerns..

Can you buy a spring break vacation package to Mexico? Yeah they sell them buy the thousands.
A year or two from now, maybe not.

 

Beatle Girl - *hugs* to you for your circumstance. I can't imagine this in 'the land of plenty' where I live. As bad as it is here....it's not that bad yet.

My brother (we're WASPs = White Anglo Saxon Protestant raised) was heavily involved with the Mexican Mafia the last 20 years of his life. I don't know the half of what he did, but I know about a lot of it. All I wanted to do was smoke pot. And it was plentiful when he was alive and dealing. As mere consumers of the substance (pot - don't use anything else) we don't realize what is really going down in the towns that are on the other end of the deal. It just wasn't taken into consideration back then. So sad to say in retrospect.

I don't know about that, but 10 years ago 5 bucks would buy you a sheet of 30 valiums. That was cool. *being cheeky* Sorry...couldn't help myself.

 

and 90% of them go to all inclusive resorts behind secured walls and never see anything but the beach.

and there were 128 of them murdered last year,dozens kidnapped as well as dozens missing ..

you really should do a little research on it before being so quick to discount whats happening..

BTW,the death toll doesnt count cartel killed by the federales and policia,nor does it take into account those missing..

discount it if you like but the facts dont lie...

 

Man, i never thought i'd say THIS again, but...

RIGHT ON, BRO!!! :cheers2:

 

i live about 130 miles from Nuevo Laredo, in a small town that is, in order of predominance, made up of these "races":

Mexican; Mexican-Indian; Texican (at least 1/4 Mexican); Anglo; Black; and Asian.

Although i don't foresee any rioting in the streets ~ everyone is SUPER friendly and community-minded ~

i DO foresee the need to learn a second language, and muy rapido. (Thank God that Spanish is one of the languages that sort of makes sense!)

Also, i'm hoping the fact that i'm an herb user will put me in good with the invading cartel forces...

Yeah, right.

 

I used to live in Nogales. When I was there it seemed mostly fine. We didn't live in some beautiful place for Americans, we were in the same housing as everyday Mexicans. At one point we lived close enough to one of the drug people to hear the atomatic guns going off, but that was the only thing and I had only heard the guns twice. I felt safe to walk the streets alone at night and be home alone. My main problem was from my perv neigbor who thought that he had scored himself a ticket back to America in the form of the Gringa living next door. I enjoyed living there. I can't believe that it has gotten so bad in one year. It makes me sad considering many of my friends are still there.

 

Mexico could be on it way to the atomic bomb of tourism, Government Travel Advisories.

18 million tourists a year, could turn to 0.

Cancun an armed camp after slaying
Mexican officials were reluctant to portray a top tourist destination as dangerous, but in the wake of the slaying of one of the highest-ranking military officers in Mexico by suspected drug traffickers last week, the government has turned Cancun into an armed camp,
LINK

Army march into holiday resort
At risk also is the tourist industry. Cancun has been spared the worst of the carnage – until now.
LINK

 

i thought it wasnt bad down there???

btw ,you missed the one about the marines being ordered not to visit mexico anymore..

http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/8649