Peak Oil Production - Happening Now

Anyone been watching the price of Crude Oil Rise with interest????

Well, the end of the consumerist era is finnally here and its because of the old favourite! Oil !!!

We are not running out of oil as so many people have predicted since the year dot, but we have used half of it. Until now we have been able to extract more oil each year than the previous year, feeding an expanding global ecconomy with ever increaseing amounts of cheap energy.

When you use past half of any resource it will be inevitable that there is a year when you can now extract less than the year before. This is happening with Oil Now. The Trouble is, Demand for Oil is on the rise. Our entire Global economy relies on more Oil pumped every year. And with increased Demand but reduced supply there is only one way oil prices can go. Up.

For more detail on the matter, type "Peak Oil" in any search engine and see what you find. Hold on to your hats though as it is a very sobering topic and it spells large changes ahead for the western and developing world ecconomies. Without Cheap Oil, the Western Lifestyle is not affordable.

Just wondered who here is aware of the situation, and hopefully try and make a few more people aware of it. Other energy sources are available but they take time we haven't got to change to them and require certain sacrifices by everyone to make that change.

 

I'm excited for this change. Never liked the Western lifestyle much, anyway...

 

I'm curious about whether there is an actual instead of a perceived problem with supply. This peak oil phenomenon seems like something that will occur, but the current fluctuations in the market price of oil coincide so much with current events that it seems like supply concerns relate to terrorism, regional instability, and the Yukos prosecution rather than production problems relating to the inability to find and pump sufficient oil cheaply. It seems like an 'artificial' (as far as a market capitalist would be concerned) overvaluing of a resource.

Comments?

 

hmm...? I wish I could be on the knowing side instead of the gullible, "believe whatever I hear" side. So therefore, since it's not a part of my reality... I'll go with niether.

 

Many of the Theories on Peak Oil Productions think that when we are at the top of the production curve there will be a scurry of activity to find, develope and produce new reserves, but that this will only balance out falls in production in older oil fields.
This will lead to a kind of production plateau where there will be no spare capacity in production and the market will become extremely politically sensitive, as we can see now.
The trouble is that the edge of a plateau looks like a cliff. When Production finally drops, the advanced techniques we have used will make older field decline more rapidly and we will have used more of the smaller new fields up already that could originally have been used to soften the blow.

At the Moment, we are at or on or around the peak and without being an industry insider it is very hard to know exactly whats happening.

One thing is for sure, in 5 years time, oil prices will be astronomical and life will be very different.






Tamee

I too don't feel happy in a world that works like it does now, too much consumerism, but it can get a lot more brutal in the future, so don't wish it away too soon. Life is the best now it possibly has ever been for Humans, and probably won't be as good again for quite a long time.

We'll slowly rebuid a renewable society. We'll have to.

 

That's good and all, but since I can't possibly be expected to believe you, just like I can't be expected to believe anyone else, I'll stick with what I believe in.

 

http://hipforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24438 I've already attempted to inform the denial crowd of the pending crisis.

In fact given the current news that oil has hit $50 USD a barrel and it is in effect part of the price spikes as we sail over the peak then it's the beginning of the crude climb. The Saudi's are now pumping 400,000 less barrels a day due to decline. That's part of it. It's already been put forward that oil will hit $125 in 2 years by Iran.

That means 2 years till it hits and even then, we may all just see it creep to that line over the 2 years rather than spike.

Still, $125 USD a barrel will shatter Australia and that's not even the ceiling height, it could get to $200. The only hope in that is it slows the demand. But that would mean war. Because no one can go without it.

Cut a long story short, I'll be driving up to Sydney in person to buy silver & gold. Paper money will lose value in this economic down turn and I don't want to lose my FTD's so I'll pull a bank cheque. The US is really on thin ice and Australia will follow suit. I don't know what will happen to real estate. But it will hold value better than cash. Commodities do in recession. But for how long will real estate hold? Suburbia is a definite doomer and I can't see it do well once oil hits $100 USD. The up side on it is anyone who wants to buy into real estate will have some real bargains.

I note more denial in this thread, I give up. If they can't see that there's an economic meltdown in process, slow at first and then rapidly spiraling, what can I say. Coal, sands and shales are NOT cheap. They won't flip it around. There's two lines of 'demand v's decline' to weigh. But try telling them. Funny how they get so defensive and frantic to save the car -- which is in effect what they've done. That's pathetic. This is the time to make informed choices.

 

Hey, man. I'm not in denial. As for as I know, you could be right. But the thing is, I DON'T[/I/] know. I don't know for sure about anything that anyone tells me, so I figure if I wanna know badly enough, I can find out myself, and not from someone else. And then I'll know the facts and there will be no confusion. Much easier for me.

 

But Australia is a net exporter of crude oil.Many people are unaware that like other commodities it is not a uniform product but comes in dofferent grades.Only a smalla amount of heavy crude that is good for making tarmac is produced off the northwest shelf and so the difference between supply and demand has to be made up with imports.

 

Sorry Tamee, it wasn't directed at you.


I might be speaking of some bad case scenarios, but I can't really view it in any other light. After all there's the prospect of global war and our global reliance on oil will make for some interesting geopolitics to say the least. Entertaining anything less doesn't hold much weight (at least to me) given the trends and facts. I can only go on trends and facts.

 

I posted questioning what is currently going on because I'm not sure... I don't mean to suggest that any other theories are incorrect.

We are continuing to use more and more non-renewable resources. It only make sense that there will come a time when demand outpaces available supply and the result will be high prices. Is that now? I don't know, but it will come. Technologies to concerve huge amounts of resources are available now. If the government cared more about people than big companies, we would be better off.

It is so important that we conserve these resources and most people don't see that. One day I'm gonna get a diesel car and run it on biodiesel. Unfortunately, the one I want (Jetta TDI) is too expensive for me, new or used, and the Rabbit diesel (as cool as those little things are) leaves a bit to be desired. One person can't always make a difference, but its the moral thing to do, and, if a lot of people did the same thing, then we would be better off. People buying hybrid cars as fast as they can make them, and that is encouraging, but at the same time its discouraging to see the number of SUV's that are never used off road, but chug non-renewable gasoline like my one friend chugs vodka.

I try to ride motorcycle (unfortunatly without a cat) instead of the car as much as possible because it gets 50mpg instead of 30. Those of us who care should do what we can. I'm pessimistic though and I'm pretty convinced that humans will destroy the earth somehow in less than a few hundred years. Hell, the in last 60 years came the first time we actually could blow the earth up sufficiently to wipe out all life. People often don't know or care whats going on, and even if you do its hard to escape the wastefulness in society today. But we shouldn't accept things how they are because its how they are. We need hope because without it all is lost. That's my answer being convinced we're screwed, and how that won't change what I do.

One last thought on peak oil... Oil companies probably love it. They can pump oil, and the market will support exorbitant prices, not necessarily related to the actual cost of pumping the oil. It will make Halliburton, Shell, ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil even richer.

We see local wars for control of resources all over the world. We could even argue that Iraq is really a resource war. But what will happen when 2 countries with real power conflict (China and the US?), (

I reread this post and it may be rambly and unclear at times, but I don't think editing it will fix it easily. So I'll leave it alone. If what I say makes sense, good. If not, you can chew me out about it if you wish. Comments are welcome.

 

oh well, the shits about to hit the fan I suppose, but oddly I'm not too worried, the crises will give me an exuse to take up my life long dream of being a hermit

 

Peace,

look at history. these ' oil crisis' have happened several times and the prices went back down. and the prices started to climb when we went to war with Iraq! so another reason to protest the war! to get gas affordable again!

later

the tired flower child

 

if nothing else its a good excuse to scrap those SUV's

 

The last Oil price Spikes in the 1970's were created by dropping production by about 2%. They were a warning to the world about how reliant we are on oil. But no-one listened. We started producing more Oil again and the prices went down and everyone carried on with their daily lives.

This time, whether we want to or not, we wont be able to increase oil production ever again. So oil prices will only go up, and never come down.

This isn't a spike. Its the final exponential upward curve.




mrcfjf,

most of that post was pretty much on the mark, good post. earlier in the thread I tried to explain why at the moment it looks like politics are affecting the price rather than the real underlying problem. because we're close to the edge and everyone gets jittery.

If only more of the public were consciensious of the situation. but most don't want to be. they want to keep driving their SUV's and keep their heads down hoping all is going to be OK. The SUV market is the fastest growing section of the auto industry in the UK for sure and I think western Europe.

 

Tamee,

I understand where you're comming from but at the end of the day you have to trust some people otherwise you can only ever know what one person can find out in one lifetime, and we all might still not know about fire.

Short of going round the world and measuring the proved reserves in all the oil wells and then the production rates at all of the for the next 5 years, you can't find this out for yourself. You'll have to take the words of experts on the matter.

I suggest you type "Peak Oil" into any search engine and start reading. Some will be crap. Some will be sensationalised stuff but along the right lines. And some will be the hardcore truths presented by specialists in their fields.

I Trust you are capable of working out whats what for yourself.

 

As long as we continue to have a proven world reserve of a trillion barrels of recoverable oil, then what prevents us from daily pumping more of that proven reserve out into the market?

Nothing more than a lack of a few more oil wells, refineries, tankers, and pipelines.

To think that the Capitalists won't take advantage of today's high oil prices and increase their production and thus their profits, I think is unrealistic.

Capitalists can't help themselves in a competitive environment. If at all possible, they will sell the very rope to hang themselves. They will increase production until it becomes unprofitable.

There is nothing physical in the oil reserves themselves to stop oil becoming as cheap as bottled water again.

Only politics and market forces can do that until the last drop is consumed.

Remember the 2.3% percent annual increase in our global oil consumption allows us another 30yrs of an oil based economy.
Assuming we've already discovered all the major oil fields.

 

If there is any hope, people must change their ways and find alternatives and accept oil is finite in the practical reality and a sure disaster to model our world on. But as I've said a number of times already, the trends and facts to move to a saner path just ain't happening.

Let's face the facts, the entire oil exporting nations of the world are now on a knife edge to meet supply. Any break in any production, anywhere in any of these nations, means oil prices go up. Which is exactly what is happening, be it Venezuela or Russia and Iraq. Be it political trouble, internal taxation cronyism or terrorism. All three said nations fall into that camp, in that order. The threat on Saudi facilities is very real and indeed feared. They have soldiers guarding the fields. But given the Saudi political mess, it is all just a case of time for Saudia Arabia to slide to revolution.

How I see it, given resource war and where it may include nuclear and bio attack, then being as far from the populated nations of the northern hemisphere increases your odds. The odds of war happening in the Northern Hemisphere are certainly higher than in the Southern Hemisphere. All major wars errupt in the Northern Hemisphere and then to some extent creep into the Southern Hemisphere -- history demonstrated that in WW2. If such were to happen, you would be looking at massive refugees numbers on the flee. Look at WW2 for such examples. Meaning, get swamped in that and your plot of hope is gone. Land bridged nations to the 3rd world best be avoided.

Of all nations, the best one to be in IMO is New Zealand, even more so than continent Australia, unless you're looking at Tasmania, which is fertile, agriculturally rich, good fish stocks, hydroelectric & wind farmed, fortressed in a geographic 2nd line by the desert continent and a furious sea. Bass Strait will sink any unseaworthy ship, no question in that. Even seaworthy ships can sink. Still, nuke attacks on Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne (the south east of the continent) could put Tasmania into the fall-out zones, though that's unlikely, since Tasmanian wind patterns head north, not south, due to Antarctic influence. I've already started to investigate Tasmanian real estate, given alterantive energy is her strong point along with many advantageous clime factors. A link of interest. http://www.hydro.com.au/

In the case of New Zealand, she's far away to the east of Australia, distanced from all nations with a fortress ocean.

This is the logic of the New Zealand govt in terms of geopolitics, i.e. she has chosen to downgrade her military relying in effect on distance and ocean as well as Australia taking the brunt of war. So I'd agree to some extent in her logic, aka she is unlikey to cop major fallout from a conventional thought out nuclear war. I doubt Russia, China or North Korea, for example, would want to hit New Zealand, since she represents no strategic interest and has distanced herself from US policy. New Zealand was btw booted out of the ANZUS treaty in 1991 because she refused US ships on the basis that some might be nuclear. One US nuke disaster and she looses her whole farming economy. I can see her point.

Her other advantages include a small population of 4 million people, agriculturally rich, good fish stocks, 57% hydroelectric with abundant rainfalls -- vital to keep dam generation catchments full. Given the coast line, she could go to tidal power generation too, along with wind. She also has geothermal to some degree, but that would need even more investment/development now. But she has, geographically, demographically and above all culturally, the potential to be fossil fuel free. I don't believe the US has that potential. You have to have a culture that's less belligerently materialist to be realistic.

But like all nations that can, they must make the moves to alternatives while in the boom years, not the decline years and New Zealand, unlike i.e. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland, well she's still lagging vis a vis in these developments. As is Australia, unless one is talking the state of Tasmania.

That said, while the US has a policy of "all or nothing", as stated in the PNAC, where the US will not tolerate any emerging block, then if the US goes down, they all go down. So, New Zealand, like other nations with the lights potentially on, could get nuked or bioweaponed attacked by fanatics in Washington or, if the world had already reached that point, invaded for American elites to live in.

Unrealistic, perhaps not. Here's a few examples. DU use on Iraq with a half-life of 4.5 billion years removing vast numbers of people from the viable gene pool, not to mention the only nation to have used nuclear weapons and keen on their tactical use again. Having used people as radiation guinea pigs in nuclear blast experiments. The UK did the same to Australians. Having used agent orange, white phosphorus and napalm with upwards of 2 million dead in Vietnam. Having interferred in democratic processes of dozens of nations since WW2. The US also had the Morgentheu Plan to exterminate millions of Germans after WW2, a plan to lower the calorie per capita and drive the nation down to a subsistance agrarian state by physically unbolting and carrying away her factories. That was binned as late as 1948 because Germany had to be reindustrialised as a buffer from the Soviets.

So, I don't see ethnic cleansing of a people to take a nation being in orbit. It's just resource war, one for living space. I go on facts and trends.

The US may not be alone in this "all or nothing" view. Large players like Russia and China (both with appalling mass murdering 20thC crimes) may feel the same and given the US has made no secret of it, it's likely they too have made their own directives to match. So even small nations trying to do the right thing could well be undone. But to dwell on that means not bothering to do anything personally positive.

 

If you ever do leave the US, I would suggest you pretend you're Canadian to cover your accent, since any economic meltdown due to oil, or other calamity due to oil, will be blamed instantaneously on the US because 1.) she uses the most and 2.) she has a high profile foreign oil policy. The world is aware of the US at the fields of the Middle East and feels it's for greed rather than need. In addition, rightly or wrongly, they also feel the US is acting the aggressor and the world's biggest threat to global and peace and stability. Already the world wide the view is anti-American, and America is liked less every day. So in times of strife, Americans outside the US could become targets of ethnocentric violence and to be frank, there's already trends of that.

 

What is recoverable doesn't mean it's cheap. The end to cheap oil is the issue, not how much oil there is.