Bird Flu....

So does anyone else think this bird flu is gonna be as bad as people are possibly predicting it to be? could the bird flu be the plague of our century? discuss

 

as i mentioned in my forum on here... i think it's gonna be a repeat of the 1918 flu pandemic... only possibly worse. i have thought that for a long while and have lots of reasons.

if what im predicting comes to be, itll kill about 25 percent of the world population.

*shrugs* but im wrong a lot so ya know....

 

im a realist... and well... losing 25% of the world population would technically be a good thing on the enviroment and the rest of the world... with resources getting slimmer and slimmer... its needed...

 

it is. imma realist too but i also dont exactly wanna die or lose the ones i love in the next couple of years... ya know?

 

What makes you think the bird flu will be so powerful?

 

maybe im just paranoid but thru a book club i ordered a book called "the great influenza" (about the 1918 pandemic) and read it and was like... wow.

then it seemed like everywhere i looked.. from the tv, to comcast news, to time, ... all talking about "read john barrys book on the 1918 pandemic [the one i read]" and acting like it could be the same as then but even worse if a COUPLE things go a certain way..... which is fairly to highly likely, depending on who you ask.....

 

i may be paranoid but lots of little things from the book i read and little things i seem to be catching everywhere now about the current situation are lining up.....

 

I still think it's just another scare tactic by the spin doctors. "if one thing don't get you, another one will"

live in the now.

 

you could very well be right. im just not sure

 

(see reference list)


I am interested in another post, I believe by an MD, that I read at a BBC discussion forum. The poster contends that secondary bacterial lung infections resulted in a high percentage of deaths during the 1918 pandemic and that if penicillin had been available then the death rate would not have been nearly as high. However, penicillin and other powerful antibiotics are available now and we are seeing an approximate mortality rate of 52% for bird to human transmitted H5N1. And, thus, I question the significance of this reasoning with H5N1 infection and with the 1918 pandemic. As I recall, Tamiflu used in mice infected with H5N1, given in the most advantageous regime (5,6 (will post additional link to above mentioned study in a later post)), reduced the moratality to 23%. To understand, to get a sense for, how high this mortality rate is take look at other pathogenic diseases where we know, or have some range of, mortality rate: Marburg hemorrhagic fever (1,2) (related to Ebola) which saw recent public attention with a large outbreak in Africa has a mortality rate that varies from approximately 25 to 80%, SARS (3,4) had a mortality rate of between 10 and 20%, typical seasonal influenza mortality rate in the U.S. is roughly 0.1% (calculated from CDC data - see links below) and worldwide influenza mortality is difficult to calculate and much higher than the U.S. rate (7,8). Other possible antiviral choices include amantadine and rimantadine, however, to my awareness, there are multiple issues with effectiveness with both of these antivirals. Also, I recall, that antiviral 'cocktails' have been tested against H5N1 with limited success.

1)http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_marburg/en/index.html
2 http://www.who.int/csr/disease/marburg/en/
3) http://www.guardian.co.uk/sars/story/0,13036,950900,00.html
4) http://www.disastercenter.com/Severe%20Acute%20Respiratory%20Syndrome.htm

CDC factsheet on influenza
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/disease.htm

Quote from the above listed factsheet:

5) http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07180501/H5N1_In_Vivo_Tamiflu.html
6)http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08090502/H5N1_Amantadine_Tamiflu_Sensitivity.html
Another article on H5N1 resistance to Tamiflu (oseltamivir)
http://www.rense.com/general67/newstrainofH5N1resist.htm
More positive reports on Tamiflu effectiveness on H5N1 infection
http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/2005/06/tamiflu-oseltamivir-and-some-other.html
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=15790
Wikipedia article on Tamiflu
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oseltamivir
And general Google search on antiviral effectiveness on H5N1 infection
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=antivirals+tamiflu+H5N1+effective+

Article on the mortality rates for the 1918, 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/CID/journal/issues/v33n8/001674/001674.text.html?erFrom=6989586162604449588Guest

7) http://search1.who.int/search?ie=utf8&site=who_main&client=who_main&proxystylesheet=who_main&output=xml_no_dtd&oe=utf8&q=influenza+mortality
8) http://www.euro.who.int/document/mediacentre/HQfs211e.pdf

new links added (102105):
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=30602
http://www.emedicine.com/med/byname/influenza.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza
http://www3.niaid.nih.gov/news/newsreleases/2005/H5N1QandA.htm
102305:
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=112044
significant potential for H5N1/H9N2 recombination
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10220501/H5N1_H9N2_Recombination.html

 

A Love Story

I will seek and find you .

I shall take you to bed and have my way with you

I will make you ache, shake & sweat until you moan & groan.

I will make you beg for mercy, beg for me to stop.

I will exhaust you to the point that you will be relieved when
I'm finished with you.

And, when I am finished, you will be weak for days.

All my love,

The Flu


Now, get your mind out of the gutter and go get your flu shot

 

if I were pressed, I think healthy young sprites like most of the posters here are finr. Fear mongering. It'll keep you from questioning the powers that be.

 

There will be a human pandemic - our network of air travel guaranties that - when and how severe it will be is anybodies guess. I think the fear of "bird flu" is being hyped by the current administration for its own purposes. You note that their proposed solution is to give the military and homeland security the power to suspend people’s rights.

 

Additional link comparing mortality of common flu with bird flu (rates provided in my previous post are close to these figures):
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6880869/


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Thanks Squawkers, excellent.

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people would compain if the gov. does make a big deal about it. people would complain if they DONT. all depending on the outcome.

 

These are good questions. And I have often noted that there are "taboos" on thinking about questions like this; that there are often "taboos" on innovative thought related to areas where we have strong preconcieved notions, these preconcieved notions often generating a "squelching" or "shutting down" of discussion or consideration of issues that could lead to useful insight. This "squelching" or "shutting down" of discussion or consideration of issues can often come in subtle forms. It is, in a way, similar to children asking questions that make an adult uncomfortable, some adults deal with it well while others fumble in trying to do the right thing. I believe that it is important, for many reasons, that the general public not feel isolated from, or as if they should not study and consider, the reality of avian influenza.

I have oftentimes personally experienced, and have had stories relayed of, obvious misdiagnosis and closed mindedness by medical professionals; I also have awareness of the higher percentage of good and excellent work performed by medical professionals and have a strong respect for the power of 'scientific method' in general. In having these experiences, and stories relayed, I have learned, "just as we may not know how to build a car but can drive a car," that we must do our homework, study, and utilize the sevices of, and informaton provided for and by, medical professionals in a properly informed and balanced manner; much like a manual tool is utilized. I have often experienced situations where I have offered knowledge or insight that has later proved to be correct and valid that was at least initially rejected or discounted by a medical professional, and I have also experienced just the opposite; properly focused, balanced, and insightful consideration of the issue. I believe that there is a widespread misunderstanding in many people, that is especially pronounced among medical professionals, where knowledge, style and status are confused with actual intelligence which largely comprises resourcefulness, insight and creativity in the use of the abovementioned "knowledge." So to this extent, and beyond, I do not think we should underestimate, or foolishly argue for our limitations in, our abilitiy to defend, or protect, ourselves, and potentially others, in difficult situations that require medical consideration and or care; and this, certainly and obviously, includes using available good resources and information. This forum can be a useful adjunct for informing others and for sharing knowledge about avain influenza and other issues. I will add that our ability to protect ourselves, and potentially others, extends far beyond that offered by any one resource.

In answer to the questions quoted at the top of this post, the questions that initiated this thread, I will say that this is highly "'theortical' 'stuff'" that you are asking; so we should realize that first. Second, the WHO has given mortality estimates for a possible avain influenza pandemic with a very wide range, 5M to 150M. On the low-end is 5M which is 10x the mortality rate of a typical influenza season, worldwide, and on the high-end is 150M which 300x the mortality rate of a typical influenza season. Much of the answer probably depends on the virulence and transmissibility of a 'human strain' of H5N1 which does not yet, to our knowledge, exist. If, however, a highly virulent, readily transmissible, 'human influenza strain' were to manifest the danger would be very significant. With modern transportation systems and high population densities among more people worldwide than in 1918 the means for rapid spreading does exist. Another consideration is that poultry industries, worldwide, could be, and probably will be, severely impacted by the present H5H1 spreading among wild birds; also, consider the possible economic impact of a senario of widespread transmission to other forms of 'livestock.'

With increase in population growth rate and with rushed and unbalanced 'development' in impoverished countries in appears to me that the liklihood of emergence of new and dangerous pathogenic disease is going to increase; add what you have noted to the formula and if this all proves to be true, then governements may be eventually compelled to reconsider some of the greed-based policies that exist worldwide that are strongly influencing these problems.

[edit: there are also many other significant factors influencing the emergence of dangerous pathogenic disease]

Although this may sound odd to some: In a country as powerful and as potentially important to the propagation, by example, and by diplomacy and 'right action,' of good and just policies this may be as, or more, dangerous than any influenza virus could ever be.


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Hey ‘jo_k_er_man’!!!! Don’t be so realistic…especially while discussing the matters that have no certainty and can bring panic with no alert.

Ya I agree with the statements of ‘interval illusion’ and his/her statements looks more realistic than that of your.

For further updates on Bird flu you may visit the following sites and find where you stand…hehehe!!!!!!!!

www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/tamiflu/default.htm , http://www.drugdelivery.ca/s3353-s-TAMIFLU.aspx

Or just search for Bird flu updates on Google or any search engine….you will find many new news on Bird flu.

______________
Kays

 

Ashu12, Welcome to the forums. 23.