The Realities of Brexit ???

Discussion in 'U.K. Politics' started by Vladimir Illich, Sep 22, 2020.

  1. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Leak by leak, We're beginning to see the realities of what brexit will mean for the vast majority of us !!!



    Leaked Brexit letter warns of 7,000 trucks queuing in Kent with waits of two days

    Ministers have warned of 7,000 truck-long queues in Kent after the Brexit transition period ends as a worst-case scenario if hauliers fail to prepare for changes to customs rules.

    The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove, responsible for no-deal planning, has written to logistics groups with the Government’s “reasonable worst-case scenario” planning, which warns of possible two-day delays for cargo travelling to France in January.

    Mr Gove is due to outline the scenario work, which the Cabinet Office stressed is not a forecast, in the Commons on Wednesday.

    If traders, both in the UK and EU, have not completed the right paperwork, their goods will be stopped when entering the EU and disruption will occur

    Michael Gove
    It comes as the European Union’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier prepares to travel to London for further informal talks with his counterpart Lord Frost as efforts continue to strike a post-Brexit trade deal.

    But in the document sent to logistics associations, which has been seen by PA news agency, Mr Gove warned that changes were coming with or without a deal.

    The transition period, which kept the UK aligned to the EU’s single market and customs union rules to allow trade to flow smoothly after Brexit, expires at the end of the year unless both sides agree to an extension – something Boris Johnson has ruled out.

    The Cabinet Office document states that, in its reasonable worst-case scenario, between 30-50% of trucks crossing the Channel will not be ready for the new regulations coming into force on January 1 2021, while a “lack of capacity to hold unready trucks at French ports” could reduce the flow of traffic across the strait to 60-80% of normal levels.

    “This could lead to maximum queues of 7,000 port bound trucks in Kent and associated maximum delays of up to two days,” the documents said.

    Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is due in London on Wednesday for further informal talks on a trade deal (Jonathan Brady/PA)

    Such delays could be in place for at least three months, hauliers have been warned, as alternative routes are sought and supply chains get to grips with the new systems and requirements.

    In his letter, Mr Gove said: “Irrespective of the outcome of negotiations between the UK and EU, traders will face new customs controls and processes.

    “Simply put, if traders, both in the UK and EU, have not completed the right paperwork, their goods will be stopped when entering the EU and disruption will occur.

    “It is essential that traders act now and get ready for new formalities.”

    But sector chiefs have accused the Government of failing to do enough in recent weeks over the threat of post-Brexit border delays.

    Logistics UK, formerly the Freight Transport Association, was seething last week after being told the Government’s Smart Freight system – designed to reduce the risk of cargo delays once Britain is outside of EU rules – would still be in testing mode in January when British exports face new border regulations.
    The Road Haulage Association (RHA), meanwhile, said their meeting on Thursday with Mr Gove had fallen “far short of our expectations”.

    Responding to the worst-case scenario document, RHA chief executive Richard Burnett said: “We’ve been consistently warning the Government that there will be delays at ports but they’re just not engaging with industry on coming up with solutions.

    “Traders need 50,000 more customs intermediaries to handle the mountain of new paperwork after transition but Government support to recruit and train those extra people is woefully inadequate.

    “The answers to the questions that we raised in our letter to Mr Gove and subsequent roundtable meeting last Thursday still remain unanswered – and our concern continues to grow.”

    There has been reported action by Government to mitigate the impact around Dover and the south-east ports, however.

    There was a suggestion this month a coronavirus testing centre in Ebbsfleet, Kent, was closed to make way for a post-Brexit lorry park to allow customs checks away to be carried out away from the Port of Dover.

    This is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen but rather a stretching scenario

    UK Government spokesman
    A UK Government spokesman said: “With just 100 days to go until the end of the transition period it’s vital that businesses prepare now for new rules that will come into force at the end of the year, so that they can hit the ground running on January 1 2021 and seize new opportunities.

    “As a responsible Government we continue to make extensive preparations for a wide range of scenarios, including the reasonable worst case.

    “This is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen but rather a stretching scenario.”

    The leaked letter comes as a think tank said failure to reach an agreement with the EU in post-Brexit trade talks could hit Britain’s economy three times harder in the long term than coronavirus.

    Queues at the border, shortages of fresh food and medicine as well as more “hassle” travelling to the continent are also possible, according to the UK in a Changing Europe group.

    Our NEW report 'What would no deal mean' is out NOW.

    READ it here ⬇️https://t.co/rehIZCqPaK#WhatWouldNoDealMeanpic.twitter.com/qwRipO6u5t

    — The UK in a Changing Europe (@UKandEU) September 22, 2020

    A report by the organisation, based on modelling with the London School of Economics (LSE), said the impacts of coronavirus may mitigate or obscure the effect of a no-deal exit.

    But it warned that not forming an agreement with Brussels would have a significant impact in the long term.

    The authors wrote: “Our modelling with LSE of the impact of a no-deal Brexit suggests that the total cost to the UK economy over the longer term will be two to three times as large as that implied by the Bank of England’s forecast for the impact of Covid-19.”

    Trade deal talks between the two sides are continuing, but the Prime Minister has set a deadline of October 15 for an agreement to be reached, otherwise he has said he will simply walk away from the negotiating table.
     
  2. Vanilla Gorilla

    Vanilla Gorilla Go Ape

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    A new report that's 3 years old?
     
  3. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Are you REALLY that dense ??? — The UK in a Changing Europe (@UKandEU) September 22, 2020
     
  4. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Not only will we have a border down the Irish Sea, it now transpires that there may be a border in Kent too !!!


    Michael Gove says police will patrol Kent border
    Brexit: Police to stop lorries without permits entering Kent in new 'internal border'
    First time ministers have admitted police will enforce need for ‘Kent access permit’

    Police will patrol the Kent border to turn away lorries without an “access permit” in a bid to ease Brexit border chaos, it has been revealed.

    Michael Gove said officers will use automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras and “other means” to block drivers – in what will be seen as an “internal border” in the UK.

    The move would try to ensure “constituents are not inconvenienced”, he told MPs, after warning of 7,000-long lorry queues and two-day delays to cross the Channel.

    But Labour accused him of planning “to arrest British truckers”, while furious hauliers said they were being lined up to take the blame for the looming disruption.

    Under questioning, Mr Gove twice refused to reveal how many of his promised 50,000 ‘customs agents’ – to help businesses prepare for a mountain of new red tape – have been recruited.


    Brexit: 'Safe operation' of Channel Tunnel in doubt from January, MPs warn
    And he declined to say whether a new IT system will be “operational in January”, with just 100 days until the end of the transition period.

    The Cabinet Office minister was setting out a new ‘worst case scenario’, which acknowledges 70 per cent of trucks may not be ready for new checks to cross the Channel.

    Damian Green, the former deputy prime minister and a Kent MP, warned the threat of 7,000-strong lorry queues would “send a chill” through local people.

    In reply, Mr Gove said: “We want to make sure that people use a relatively simple process in order to get what will become known as a Kent Access Permit, which means that they can then proceed smoothly through Kent, because they do have the material required.


    “If they don't have the material required, then it will be the case that through policing, ANPR cameras and other means, we'll do our very best to ensure that his constituents are not inconvenienced.”

    Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow Cabinet Office minister, attacked the announcement, saying: “It is incredible that ministers are only now admitting to their plans to arrest British truckers for entering Kent without new travel passports.

    “With just over three months to go, how are businesses meant to prepare amid this Conservative carnival of incompetence?”

    The Food and Drink Federation warned that 7,000-long lorry queues would mean fruit and vegetables "will not arrive fit for human consumption”.

    And the haulage group Logistics UK also hit back at Mr Gove, saying it was his responsibility to give firms the “details of and access to” promised new IT systems.

    “Logistics UK has long warned government of the potential for border delays after the UK leaves the EU, and while there is still time to put mitigations in place to avoid them, it will be a huge challenge for government and industry to achieve,” it said.
    With a second wave of coronavirus, now is not the time for a hard Brexit
    Asked, repeatedly, how many customs agents are in place, Mr Gove claimed: “I cannot precisely state at any given time in a dynamic market how many people are doing exactly what job”.

    He added: “What I can state is that the £80m that we've made available has not yet been fully drawn down.

    “But any company that is in this area will know that come 1 January there will be an increased opportunity for their work, so this is an opportunity to expand and the government stands ready to help that.”

    Meanwhile, MPs have raised fears about the “safe operation of the Channel Tunnel” from January, accusing the government of failing to make preparations.

    France and the UK were expected to negotiate changes needed because of Brexit – but ministers have yet to put forward a new safety framework, they say.

    If a deal is not struck by the end of the transition period, in little more than three months’ time, the legal status of a treaty dating back to 1986 is uncertain.

    This will raise “concerns about the safe operation of the Tunnel after 31 December given that most EU law will no longer apply in the UK”, the report by the Commons European Scrutiny Committee warned.

    If there are disputes, “France will be able to take unilateral action to regain control of its section of the Tunnel”, it suggested.
     
  5. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Seems we're headed for a 'no deal' Brexit - which is precisely what that scumbag Boris has wanted all along !!!


    Johnson says Britain should prepare for final no-deal break with Brussels

    PA
    Oct 16th 2020 8:04AM
    Boris Johnson has said that, unless there is a "fundamental change of approach" from the EU, Britain is prepared to move to trading on World Trade Organisation rules when the Brexit transition period ends.

    The Prime Minister said this week's EU summit in Brussels has made clear that the EU is not prepared to offer the kind of Canada-style deal the UK is seeking.

    "They want the continued ability to control our destiny and freedom, our fisheries, in a way that is completely unacceptable," he said.

    "Given that this summit appears to explicitly rule out a Canada-style deal, I think that we should ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia's."

    Mr Johnson had previously made clear that if there was no agreement by the time of the two-day summit, which began on Thursday, he would walk away from the negotiating table.
     
  6. wilsjane

    wilsjane Nutty Professor HipForums Supporter

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    Me too, it gives us more freedom to trade with the rest of the world, particularly the former British colonies. Canada, Australia and New-Zealand will probably have a day of national celebration.
    Meanwhile, we can buy and sell to countries within the EU on MUTUALLY beneficial terms.

    When we voted to leave the EU, that is exactly what we expected........... NOT some politician trying to hang on and make fools of us.

    By by Brussels.................Good riddance to bad rubbish...............Needless to say, that does not apply to the everyday citizens of the countries.
     
    Mallyboppa likes this.
  7. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Well, just wait until you need certain medications which come from within the EU, then see the long queues of lorries in Calais and elsewhere waiting to get into Dover. Then look at the empty shelves in the supermarkets because the produce you normally bought came to you from the EU, then tell me you made the right decision !!!
     
  8. Vanilla Gorilla

    Vanilla Gorilla Go Ape

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    Woo hoo YES!!!!

    Y2K 2.0 is almost over
     
    wilsjane likes this.
  9. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Gove says we're ready for 'no-deal brexit' - Oh really ??? - yet another lying bastard !!!


    Gove says Britain 'well prepared' for a no-deal Brexit

    Reuters
    Oct 17th 2020 9:12PM
    Michael Gove, the minister handling Brexit divorce issues for Britain, said on Sunday that the UK is "increasingly well-prepared" for a no-deal Brexit.

    "It is not my preferred destination," Gove said in an opinion piece in the Sunday Times.

    "But if the choice is between arrangements that tie our hands indefinitely, or where we can shape our own future, then that's no choice at all. And leaving on Australian terms is an outcome for which we are increasingly well-prepared".

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that Britain should get ready for a deal with the European Union similar to the one Australia has, "based on simple principles of global free trade."

    A so-called "Australia deal" means that the United Kingdom would trade on World Trade Organisation terms: as a country without an EU trade agreement, like Australia, tariffs would be imposed under WTO rules, likely causing significant price rises.

    Johnson's critics say that an Australian-style deal is simply code for no deal at all with Britain's largest export market. Australia's trade with the EU is dwarfed by Britain's.

    Gove has previously said that while the British government wanted an agreement with Brussels, it was not going be "held hostage".

    "It will require a fundamental change in attitude, policy and politics from the EU to get things back on track," Gove wrote in the Sunday Times.

    "As things stand, that (free trade agreement with EU) will not happen, and the EU's decisions at last week's summit have, in effect, ended those trade talks", he added.
     
  10. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Weren't we warned about this at the time ??? Seems those who told us that there would be problems if there was no negotiated trade deal were correct.

    I wonder what the brexiteers will say about this ???


    Brexit: Drugs industry appeals to Boris Johnson for urgent action to avoid no-deal medicine shortages
    Exclusive: UK and EU ‘must prioritise patients’, says trade body

    Andrew Woodcock
    Political Editor
    @andywoodcock
    1 day ago
    49 comments

    Britain’s pharmaceutical industry is appealing to Boris Johnson to strike a swift side-deal with Brussels to avoid delays and shortages of medicines if he crashes the UK out of the EU in a no-deal Brexit at the end of this year.

    The prime minister’s announcement on Friday that he was preparing for no deal on 31 December has left the industry without the agreement on mutual recognition of standards needed to avoid hugely costly duplication of red tape and maintain the flow of trade in vital drugs.

    With less than 75 days to go until the transition to post-Brexit relations with Europe, the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) says that failure to secure either an overarching trade deal or a sector-specific agreement would cost “many, many millions” of pounds and introduce delays of up to six weeks in supplies.

    It comes as Mr Johnson and senior ministers prepare to launch an advertising drive warning businesses across the country that “time is running out” to prepare for the end of the transition period.

    Meanwhile, the Patients’ Association said it was vital that patients do not see their care and treatment disrupted as a result of EU exit.

    Speaking to The Independent, ABPI chief executive Richard Torbett said the industry had been working closely with government since the EU referendum of 2016 to ensure that the transition went as smoothly as possible, but still does not have details of the regulations it will be operating under after 1 January.

    “There are 45 million packs of medicines going from the UK to the EU and 37 million going from the EU to the UK every month,” he said. “There are many thousands of medicines used by the NHS and other health systems and all of them require good flow of trade across borders, both within the EU and internationally, so it is very important.”

    With 12,000 types of medicines supplied to the NHS alone, Mr Torbett said it was impossible to predict which drugs would be most likely to run short in the absence of an agreement, though he said patients with chronic conditions were most likely to be affected first, simply because they have more regular contact with the health system.

    He welcomed last week’s announcement of a £78m government deal with ferry companies to provide additional services to eight ports on the south and east coasts of England, to ensure supplies of essential medicines in the case of gridlock at Dover.

    This came on top of measures the companies had already taken – at “significant” cost – to reroute substantial amounts of their trade away from the Kent port, which previously handled the vast majority of medicine shipments but is thought the most likely location for queues and bottlenecks as new customs arrangements are introduced.
    Government spends £80m on ferries as Brexit threatens medical supplies

    Drugs companies have also built up stockpiles to mitigate the possibility of shortages in the new year and avoid a “cliff edge” on 1 January, working with the NHS to better predict levels of demand, said Mr Torbett, though he stressed that this is not an option with some products with a short shelf life.

    But he said that this did not resolve the problem that, without mutual recognition of standards, trade in medicines between the UK and EU would become “permanently more complicated”.

    “Beyond the immediate supply issues, there are a number of very essential things that we need to get done in order to have supply security going forward,” he explained.

    “For example, when a medicine is manufactured, every single batch of medicines has to get tested in a lab. Will those batch release tests in the EU be recognised in the UK and vice versa? We still don't know.”

    Mr Corbett said the industry would ideally like a fully comprehensive free trade agreement.

    But Mr Johnson’s announcement that he is walking away from talks on a deal unless the EU fundamentally changes its position has created a need for at least a bare-bones sectoral agreement.

    “There’s a very bare minimum that we need for medicines desperately,” said Mr Torbett.

    “Mutual recognition agreements are often signed outside of the free trade agreements, because it’s a real no-brainer that you don’t want to introduce any further complexity into the supply chain.

    “We’ve been calling on the government and the European Commission to absolutely make sure that both sides prioritise patients. Let’s get a mutual recognition agreement done so we recognise each other’s standards.

    “If you don’t do that, you can stockpile all you like and you can have all the ferries you like, you will introduce delays as more things have to get tested multiple times, which is obviously cost and complexity in the supply chain that we don’t want.”


    Mr Torbett said resolving the issue was all the more urgent because of the coronavirus pandemic gripping countries on both sides of the English Channel, which is soaking up vast proportions of drugs companies’ time and resources.

    “At a time of global pandemic, where we’re trying to keep medicine supplies going to the NHS and every other health system in the world, with half the global economy shut down, we really don’t need any more nonsense in the supply chain,” he said.

    And he warned that the absence of an agreement would create uncertainty over the future development of one of the UK’s most important economic sectors, which is a major spender on research and development and exports products worth £30bn a year.

    “Ultimately, it just ties us up in red tape more than we ever were,” he said. “And that will not be good news for investment and our ability to attract companies to put money here."

    Mr Torbett insisted it is “perfectly possible” for London and Brussels to get the necessary agreement in the time remaining.

    “They just need to prioritise it and get it done,” he said. “The fact that we haven’t got one ready is very frustrating. The last thing we want is to introduce any risk.

    “We’re looking at the clock. We're well into October. And, you know, we need to get this clarity sooner rather than later. There’s an awful lot at stake.”

    The chief executive of the Patients’ Association, Rachel Power, said: “Patients must not see their care and treatment disrupted after the Brexit transition period ends at the turn of the year.

    “We know the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and NHS have developed extensive plans to keep supplies coming into the NHS, and with the COVID-19 pandemic still certain to be a major factor in January, we very much hope they prove successful.”

    A DHSC spokesperson said: “The government has proposed to the EU an agreement on medicines and medical devices which would provide significant benefits to patients, industry and regulators in the EU and UK, including ensuring we have quick access to new treatments.

    “Alongside these negotiations, we are working closely with partners across the health system to put in place robust measures for the end of the transition period, taking into account extra winter and Covid pressures.

    “As part of these plans we have asked suppliers to stockpile, where possible, to a target level of six weeks’ total stock on UK soil, as part of a robust and flexible multi-layered approach which also includes rerouting supply chains and being ‘trader ready’.”
     
  11. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    And then there's this too !!!

    I wonder what the brexiteers will say about this little snippet ???



    Brexit: Food and drink companies tell Boris Johnson they will have to pull out of Northern Ireland because of his deal
    Added trade frictions prompt concern

    Jon Stone
    Policy Correspondent
    @joncstone
    1 day ago
    43 comments

    [​IMG]
    Food and drink companies are set to quit Northern Ireland en masse because of "the added cost, complexity and trade friction" of doing business after Brexit, Boris Johnson's government has been told.

    In a letter sent to cabinet ministers, the leaders of 39 good and drink industry bodies say the prime minster's Brexit deal means it will "no longer be practical for many of our businesses to supply good from Great Britain for sale in the Northern Ireland market".

    After Britain's Brexit transition period ends on 31 December, new border controls will be imposed on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    The change, agreed by the prime minister last year, will see Northern Ireland continue to follow the EU customs code and other regulations while the rest of the UK diverges.

    The letter, which was first reported by the Business Insider website, says unless checks are minimised in ongoing talks with the EU then many companies will simply have to stop supplying the Northern Irish market.
    "Producers are now preparing for this worst-case scenario and many are planning to stop supplying the Northern Ireland market after 1 January 2021 while they assess if it remains a viable option for their business," the warning, sent to Michael Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, and George Eustice, the Environment Secretary, says.

    The intervention presents a difficult situation for the government, which has already shredded EU goodwill in trade talks by trying to water down controls across the Irish Sea with its Internal Market Bill.

    But the government's plan – which the EU has rejected - only seeks to water down controls in the direction of Northern Ireland to Great Britain, meaning it would not make life easier for companies wanting to export to Northern Ireland.

    While implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol is still subject to negotiation at "joint committee" sessions between the EU and UK, controls on the Irish Sea are a fundamental part of what was agreed in the withdrawal agreement and are unlikely to be avoidable.


    The EU says checks are needed on entry to Northern Ireland to prevent it being used as a staging post for smuggling into the wider EU's single market and customs union, which it would retain free access to through Northern Ireland.

    The 39 signatories include leaders of the Food and Drink Federation, Retail NI, the Northern Ireland Food and Drink Association, UKHospitality, the Fresh Produce Consortium, the Federation of Bankers, the Federation of Wholesale Distributors, the Food and Drink Exporters Association, the British Soft Drinks Association, and the Scotch Whisky Association.
     
  12. Vanilla Gorilla

    Vanilla Gorilla Go Ape

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    You realise the article says there are more meds going from UK to EU, than EU to UK


    "There are 45 million packs of medicines going from the UK to the EU and 37 million going from the EU to the UK every month,” he said. "
     
  13. Vladimir Illich

    Vladimir Illich Lifetime Supporter Lifetime Supporter

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    Seems to be you're showing your stupid side again !!! - just what is in those 37 million packs of medication that have not or cannot be produced in the uk ???
     

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