The Johnson Government Score Card

So what now – here are a few ideas, predictions are always difficult because ‘events’ can get in the way, if there is another financial crash for example all bets are off but having said that this is how I see things panning out.

If they are clever (and not in a good way) the Conservative regime will abandon austerity and flood the system with money to give the impression that this vote was a good thing and will also mitigate against the short term adverse effects of any Brexit. That will probably balloon borrowing and public debt. If they are stupid they will carry on with austerity.

While that is takes place and getting the headlines they do other things in the background – voter suppression, gerrymandering the voting districts the politicisation of the Civil Service and take more control over the BBC (these are all things that they have mooted). That will make it much more difficult for any opposition political party to get in power. Then will come the tax cuts that favour the better off and the deregulations the cuts in workers’ rights and welfare that help the corporations.

Brexit will have an adverse impacts but these will be played down or covered over by the right wing media and the cowed BBC.

All of that will balloon public debt even further which means even if an opposition Party gets in next time it will be limited in what it can do to alleviate the problems in the system and if the Conservatives get in again - that is when they will bring in the new austerity, an austerity that will make the last look like a walk in the park.

Anyway I thought I’d begin this thread so we can keep track of what happens.

 

From what i have seen on news reports over here in australia is mainly negative.
Personally i think his government is weird.

 

Wetherspoons has run out of pigs in blankets – because of Brexit


Perhaps wetherspoons should use the excess in the scumbag 'nasty party' cabinet - plenty of them there !!!

 

The BBC

And so it begins – the Tories are threatening the BBC – it’s like a mobster whispering ‘nice place you got here be a pity if anything happened to it’.

The neoliberal right wing have always hated the two big publically owned institutions in the UK the BBC and the NHS – they hate them because they have been successful public services and in neoliberal thinking that should be impossible, in their philosophy public services should always be failing and given a bad service – since that was not happening with these institutions they have through underfunding been trying there best to make them failing institutions.

The right also hate the BBC because of it’s supposed ‘left wing bias’ - what they actually meant by this was that the BBC wasn’t actively biased to the right. Up until quite recently the BBC tried to give balanced reporting which meant it often debunked the lies put out by the right wing media, although as I say recently it has become so fearful and cowed by right wing government threats that its balance has moved to the right but as predicted that has not saved it, neoliberals will not be happy until it is diminished to the point of irrelevance.

 

The Conservatives are inviting private firms to bid for NHS cardiology, gynaecology, paediatrics and oncology services in big sell out – Daily Mirror December 28th

 

Ursula von der Leyen: UK deadline makes full Brexit deal impossible : EU commission chief questions Johnson’s timeframe as she arrives for Downing Street talks

The president of the European commission has said it will be “impossible” for the UK to negotiate a comprehensive deal covering all aspects of Brexit within the timeframe set by Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen have 'positive' meeting

Thing is that the right wing media and pundits might be claiming that the UK is now in a strong position for the trade negotiations but to me that seems rather delusional when every objective analysis seems to indicate the opposite.

The big threat the UK had with the EU was that we would pull out and that got us many concessions when we were a member as the other states knew how disruptive and expensive that process would be, but we’ve done that we are leaving, so we would seem to have no other gambit, no other card to play.

Leavers claimed we would get all we wanted in the withdrawal agreement because of exporting German car manufactures and French cheesemakers but that turned out to be so much hot air and we ended up with a pretty pathetic agreement for all the right wing media spin.

So given the disparity in the in power between the EU (and US) and the UK we are in the far weaker position in negotiations whenever happens they know we are in much more need of deal than they are.

 

Banning the use of the word Brexit does not mean Brexit is over.

Now anyone that know the subject already know that Brexit has only just begun the only way to stop Brexit would have been to revoke article 50 once the withdrawal agreement is signed that is when Brexit truly begins and it will carry on for years.

But I hear that Boris and Dominic think that leavers are so stupid that if they just stop using the word ‘Brexit’ these people will stupidly believe it is all over, I don’t think leavers are that stupid but I fear some of them might be and I’m sure the right wing media and the BBC will play along so let’s see.

 

If they muck about we can just leave. and they wont like that, as it will hurt them more than us.

And they have had 3 years to get there act together, its our own government who did not get there act together, as they did not want to leave, it took one man with a vision to do that.

 

Can we post in here about the accomplishments with our own Johnson?

 

Barry

Sorry but if you think we are in the stronger position you are delusional

I mean please explain your thinking?

First what do you mean by ‘muck about’?

Then you say ‘we can just leave’ but sorry mate we are leaving – you can’t threaten someone with divorce after you have signed the divorce papers, so what are you on about?

If you mean by ‘just leave’ to mean leaving with no deal whatsoever with the EU27 then that would be far far more detrimental to the UK economy than it would be to the EU’s it’s like threatening someone with getting splattered in blood because you are going to shot yours our brains out.

Look as a whole the EU27 exports around 10% of goods and services to the UK while the UK export around 44% of its exports to the EU – if we just stopped trading with them we take a much bigger hit than they do. And given scales they are in much better position to survive such a shock than we are. It gets even more complicated when you think of the number of product that cross borders these days to be built, that after a crash out would attract tariffs.

I mean honestly can you present any rational argument as to why a Brexit would be good for the UK?

 

@Asmodean.....This May Come As A Shock......But There Are Times I Seriously "Despair Of You"....



Cheers Glen.

 

Swaffelen?

 

So let me get this straight

10% of the exports of 27 countries going in to one country, the UK

You are comparing that to the exports of a single country, the UK going into 27 countries

10% vs 44% is meaningless there, which I am sure you are fully aware of. Intentionally and consciously misleading


By dollar amounts, in 2018 anyway:

"In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £291 billion (45% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £357 billion (53% of all UK imports)."

Statistics on UK-EU trade - Commons Library briefing - UK Parliament

The EU sold £66 billion more stuff to the UK than they brought from the UK

So yes, EU businesses are in the worse position


Not that the EU wont backflip quicker than an Olympic gymastic

 

Reminds me, since we know now both Balbus and Vlad both voted for the Green party in the general election last month

What the hell is the point of this thread exactly?

 

VG

We have been through this a number of times – it’s as about Barry’s idea (and others) of ‘just leaving’ well a study has been made on what the consequences of such a hard Brexit would likely have on each EU countries GDP.

The country that loses the most in terms of GDP, around 1%, is Ireland. This is expected given its geographic proximity, common language and historical ties with the UK. The second largest decline in GDP from a no-deal Brexit is observed for Cyprus, at around 0.2% of its GDP. This result is surprising to some extent given the distance of Cyprus from the UK. But it could be explained by common institutions (Cyprus was a colony of the UK until 1960) as well as the close historical and business ties between the two islands.

After Ireland and Cyprus, the vast majority of EU countries will face a decline of their GDP from 0.18% (Spain) to just below 0.1% (Croatia). And the last group of EU countries, from Central and Eastern Europe, will have among the lowest decline in GDP. Hungary with 0.08% and Austria with 0.03% of GDP.

It is interesting to note that the four biggest EU27 countries will face a small drop in their GDP in the case of a No Deal Brexit scenario. Germany faces a 0.16% drop; France, 0.17%; Italy, 0.14%, and Spain, 0.18%.

Hence, the overall effect on the EU27 will be a fairly small decline in their combined GDP – a weighted average of 0.17%.

In comparison, we find that a no-deal Brexit will reduce the UK’s GDP by a staggering 5.8% of GDP.

These results can easily be understood when we consider the fact that each individual EU country trades much more with the rest of the EU as a whole than just the UK.

Agelos Delis - Lecturer in Economics, Aston University


Karen Jackson -Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Westminster


Oleksandr Shepotylo - Lecturer in Economics, Aston University

 

VG

It’s not saying that EU countries will not take a hit it’s that they put the integrity of the EU above what they would lose if that was threatened. Remember all, the leaver talk about the withdrawal agreement, how it would be easy and we would get all we wanted (to have our cake and eat it) because we had ‘all the cards’ and France and German manufacturers would demand that the EU give us all we wanted out of fear.

It didn’t happen in that stage of the negotiations and I don’t think it will happen in the next.

 

Barry

But he basically just caved in to what the EU had already proposed (but was first of all rejected by amongst others Boris) which was a border down the Irish Sea. If anything it was a climb down and admission that the EU27 were in a stronger position than the UK.

The thing is perception – and the right wing media and pundits are pulling out all the stops to try and sell this whole venture as positive by ignoring or spinning all the negatives – if this was a left wing government pushing this policy the right wing press would be screaming ‘traitors’ and ‘incompetence’ at the top of their lungs.

Boris/Cummings’ vision is for a low tax low regulation neoliberal country and to keep themselves and their ideology in power

 

Really, a study was made



......15 months ago from the 601st best University in the world

Pretty convincing

Why are you talking about a no deal Brexit?

 

VG

LOL oh and when have you put up any rational reasons for why Brexit would be a good thing for the UK ….oh yeah….that right….NEVER

And keep up we are talking of a no deal Brexit because that is what Barry seemed to be proposing that we could ‘just leave’.

 

Well, it will take about 6 months for the real fun to begin. We will see which German car manufacturer goes bust first