The Beginning of the Oil End Game: The 2007 Cliff

Discussion in 'The Whiners' started by Lucifer Sam, Jan 26, 2005.

  1. Lucifer Sam

    Lucifer Sam Vegetable Man

    Below is a summary of a From the Wilderness article published yesterday describing the actions of the oil industry and the corporate world over the years which point to a 2007 oil cliff. Read it and make up your own mind.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Beginning of the Oil End Game
    featuring original FTW maps

    Major Powers Jockey for Position and Risk All-Out War Before the 2007-8 Oil Cliff

    Maps Reveal Rapid Global Realignment/Competition

    By

    Michael C. Ruppert

    © Copyright 2005, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All Rights Reserved. This story may NOT be posted on any Internet web site without express written permission. Contact admin@copvcia.com. May be circulated, distributed or transmitted for non-profit purposes only.


    January 25, 2005, PST 1300 (FTW) - Three key facts are of overriding importance to world events today.

    FACT ONE - If the actions - rather than the words - of the oil business' major players provide the best gauge of how they see the future, then ponder the following. Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction. Likewise, U.S. refineries are working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has been constructed since 1976. And oil tankers are fully booked, but outdated ships are being decommissioned faster than new ones are being built.

    - Mark Williams, Technology Review, February 2005
    LONDON -- Major oil companies are replacing dwindling reserves by acquiring other oil companies instead of exploring for new fields, a strategic shift with implications for global oil supplies, investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston said in a report Monday.

    Integrated oil companies are spending only 12% of their total capital expenditures on finding new oil fields, down from nearly a third in 1990, the report said. Integrated oil companies like U.S. super-major ExxonMobil Corp (XOM) have upstream oil exploration and pumping and downstream refining and marketing operations.

    In addition, with the world's biggest oil companies convinced exploration is too costly and risky, the steady growth of the world's total oil reserves has fallen sharply, the bank said. Global oil reserves are being replaced at a rate of 1.2% a year in the last three years, compared to 2.3% over the last 20 years, even as oil demand growth is hitting new records with China and India becoming industrial powers, the bank said.

    -- Dow Jones Newswire, January 17, 2005
    FACT TWO - Let's forget about economic growth, how about just offsetting declines. If Mr. Raymond's curve reflects reality we would still have to find about 30 Gb/yr. How are we doing?

    From http://www.ems.org/rls/2004/01/28/oil_supply_short.html we find the following:

    The rate of major new oil field discoveries has fallen dramatically in recent years. [Global discovery peaked in the 1960s. Per capita energy production peaked in 1979. -Ed] There were 13 discoveries of over 500 million barrels in 2000, six in 2001 and just two in 2002, according to the industry analysts IHS Energy. For 2003, not a single new discovery over 500 million barrels has been reported. Key findings of a recent Petroleum Review report are:




    • Between 2003 and early 2007 some 8 million barrels/day of new capacity is expected to come on stream.



    • In 2005, 18 projects with a potential peak capacity of 3 million barrels a day are due to come on stream, slowing in 2006 with 11 new projects followed by 3 in 2007, and 3 in 2008 adding a cumulative 4 million barrels/day of potential new capacity at their peak.



    • It appears likely that from 2007, the volumes of new production will fall short of the need to replace lost capacity from depleting older fields.
    Further confirming this trend, recent E&D results strongly support the expectation of a near term peak in oil production. The net present value of all discoveries for the 5 oil majors during 2001/2/3 was less than their exploration costs.



    -- Murray Duffin, Energy Pulse, November 17, 2004
    (These calculations were confirmed by the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre of the UK in November 2004 and by FTW's Dale Allen Pfeiffer's independent calculations in February of 2004. There was not a single discovery of a 500 Mb field in 2003 and - as far as we know (as of this writing) the same holds true for 2004. The world is currently consuming a billion barrels of oil every eleven and one half days.)

    Fact Three -- Look at this imbalance: The average American consumes 25 barrels of oil a year. In China, the average is about 1.3 barrels per year; in India, less than one…

    The challenge is huge. For China and India to reach just one-quarter of the level of US oil consumption, world output would have to rise by 44 percent. To get to half the US level, world production would need to nearly double. That's impossible. The world's oil reserves are finite. And the view is spreading that global oil output will soon peak.

    -- The Christian Science Monitor, January 20, 2005
    These three facts alone dictate a global mêlée over oil and that is in fact what is happening. It seems clear now that the world's major oil consuming nations have decided to position themselves to control as much oil as possible before the now certain 2007 cliff event. The first fact underscores a point FTW has been making for years now. Even if Peak Oil was some fabrication (hard to believe at this point), the world is behaving as though it were quite real and imminent. The fact that there is virtually no exploration or refinery construction means that the majors understand clearly that there is no more significant oil to find and their investments would never be paid off.

    As the following maps disclose, events in just the last year reveal the building frenzy behind these conflicts which are threatening to escalate to military conflict soon. Sometimes a picture is worth more than a thousand words.
     
  2. soulrebel51

    soulrebel51 i's a folkie.

    Let's see our resident neocons have to say about this... I'd love to see these facts argued.
     
  3. FreeBird1969

    FreeBird1969 Fleas on their paws.

    I'm gonna pull a Katie on this one...

    What do you expect me to do about it? Something inevitable can't be reversed..
     
  4. lover/young_peace

    lover/young_peace Senior Member

    Edited for bitchy-ness. :D
     
  5. Lucifer Sam

    Lucifer Sam Vegetable Man

    I don't expect you to do anything about it, really. I encourage you to do things for yourself, sure, but as you said, there really is nothing you can do for the greater good.

    The thing is, Peak Oil may be inevitable, but the toll it takes is not. You can affect the way Peak Oil will influence your life, and I encourage you and everyone else here to do so.
     
  6. lover/young_peace

    lover/young_peace Senior Member

    Do things like what for ourselves?

    Prepare to live in the woods? Learn to make fire with sticks? Stock up on batteries so we can survive Y2K? :D :D
     
  7. Lucifer Sam

    Lucifer Sam Vegetable Man

    Actually, no. I was referring to a transition of your private assets from cash to silver and gold.

    However, since you seem to take Peak Oil for a joke, why don't you explain for the class why it's just another Y2K scam? After all, I'm sure you've done the proper research to do so, right?
     
  8. lover/young_peace

    lover/young_peace Senior Member

  9. FreeBird1969

    FreeBird1969 Fleas on their paws.

    Derek, I don't have a car. Or money to turn in for gold/silver. I don't have any respect for the American society, and to tell you the truth I never will have these things. So I honestly don't see what I can do for myself even. Please enlighten me if you can. [​IMG]
     
  10. Lucifer Sam

    Lucifer Sam Vegetable Man

    Well, it's not like Peak Oil is going to destroy the world tomorrow. Don't get me wrong, it's a big deal, but you'll have time. By the time it really starts to set in, you'll be older, and you'll have the ability to change your life for the better.
     
  11. Burbot

    Burbot Dig my burdei

    but its all about informing peple before its too late...
     
  12. Lodui

    Lodui One Man Orgy

    Eh, I've got guns... no need for me to worry.
     
  13. lover/young_peace

    lover/young_peace Senior Member

    Boobs > Guns
     
  14. Lodui

    Lodui One Man Orgy

    How do you figure?

    If oil hungry zombie republicans tried to break down my door and suck the life blood from me to fuel their yachts... I'd rather have a .38
     
  15. lover/young_peace

    lover/young_peace Senior Member

    Pfftt... you can always get weapons installed in your nipples.
     
  16. Lodui

    Lodui One Man Orgy

    Sounds painful...

    It's your dream though... who am I to tell you what kind of weapons to put in your boobs? [​IMG]
     
  17. lover/young_peace

    lover/young_peace Senior Member

    Damn straight.

    I think I'm gonna go with those little tubes that spray toxic gas.

    I always wanted to be a femme bot. :(
     
  18. Burbot

    Burbot Dig my burdei

    one question still remains which is better... vagina, boobs, or the third nipple of doom?
     
  19. lover/young_peace

    lover/young_peace Senior Member

    Pffft... that's a silly, question, Burby. All woman have tits and cunts. Hells, lots of men have boobs... lots of men are pussies...

    But only really really cool mothafuckahs have three nippes.
     
  20. Lodui

    Lodui One Man Orgy

    I'm still going with the gun.
     

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