Telling People How Certain You Are.

You know, I was thinking. Specifically, actually, about my memory. My memory is amazing sometimes. I can remember details, like names, places and exact words people used, with incredible clarity years later. But my memory is also weird sometimes. For example, remembering things sometimes makes the memory fade a little. That doesn't happen too often. But enough of that subject.

I was just going to say, when I remember things, to make clear to people how well I remember it, I sometimes use a percentage system. Or when I am describing how certain I am about anything. I think we all do. But where I live, it usually goes like this. Now note, this not meant to show literal probability. Just how certain you are:

When you are half certain/half not. You say you are 50% certain (any percentage below fifty just shows you're mostly not certain, of course).

When you know you are mostly certain, you say you are 75% certain. Three quarters in other words.

When you are almost completely certain, you say you are 95% certain.

When you are totally certain, but how could anyone be? It's possible that you could be wrong, you say you are 99% (some people where I live for dramatic effect, take it further. And say that they are 99.99999% certain. Etc.)

And of course if you were 100% certain, you would be totally certain and there would be no doubt. I don't know if anyone is ever 100%.

That above sounds about right. Doesn't it? Am I using that system right? How do you tell people how certain you are? And are there other systems in other places?

 

If you asked me the home telephone numbers and car registration numbers of my school teachers back from 60 years ago, I would be 100% certain on most.

If you asked me what we had for dinner last night, I would just be scratching my head.

 

Yeah --me too. It's really easy for me to---uh ---what was the question?

 

I do have an excellent memory for things past. I remember my and my friend Richards telephone numbers from the 40s when operators would plug you in to your requested number. My rifle number from the 50s in the national guard. My address that I moved away from in 1944. Just ALL kinds of things that I don't really need to remember. Nowadays, when I'm trying to think of something and it won't come to me---I often say ( to myself) ---just wait ---it'll come to you. And almost all of the time--it does. Could be 10 minutes later ---could be the next day.
There is a show called the 1% Challenge on TV. I took it as the people on the show tried to answer the questions--- unfortunately I'm a hell of a lot dumber than I thought I was!!

 

I am suprised my friend can recite his drivers license.

 

I'm not certain of anything. Everything I think I "know" is actually just a loosely cobbled together working hypothesis, always subject to revision or retraction when presented with new information.
Beware of true believers.
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