A Running Ebola Thread

Discussion in 'Science and Technology' started by OddApple, Apr 23, 2014.

  1. OddApple

    OddApple Member

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    Ebola, now referred to as EVD for ebola virus disease owing to multiple strains, has taken a new turn as it has apparently spread from guinea now and even entered europe, ie italy.
    I found a page about prevention which sure saves a lot of typing. Here are also a few other links related and I'll add more as things progress. It seems this one is worth watching

    First, a good page about epidemic preparednes in general:
    http://www.thedailysheeple.com/how-an-average-person-can-prepare-for-a-pandemic_042014

    WHO EVD Page:
    http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/

    WHO maps:
    Affected areas: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/geographic-ebola.jpg

    Outbreak Ground Zero: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/EVD-outbreak.jpg


    A dahboo video:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvblnVMh2wA&list=UUFjOi1ZpZVErr8EYxg8t1dQ

    So here we go ~

    4/24 latest update on "GAR" (global alert responce)
    http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_04_22_ebola/en/

    And the outbreak in Pisa, Italy:
    EBOLA CONTAINMENT LOST -- INFECTION RATE UP 15% IN 24 HOURS;
    UTBREAK ARRIVES IN PISA, ITALY!
    Thursday, 17 April 2014 21:02

    April 17, 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT -- (TRN) -- The outbreak of Ebola Virus in seven west African countries has
    broken through all containment efforts and is spreading like wildfire. According to Christian Relief groups
    working in Guinea and Liberia, the number of confirmed infections jumped 15% in just the last 24 hours. In
    addition, 40 illegal alien migrant workers from the outbreak area, who came ashore in Pisa, Italy, are
    showing signs of Ebola infection and are being isolated in Pisa Italy because of fever and "conjunctivitis"
    (bloody around the eyes). According to the World Health Organization, this strain of Ebola is entirely new
    and although it is close to the Zaire strain, it is different, thus accounting for false-negative test results . . . . .
    for weeks!

    Those false-negative results meant people who were actually infected with Ebola, were returned to their
    families and neighborhoods to recover from what they believed was the Flu or a case of food poisoning, only
    to spread the Ebola further. The result has been a complete loss of containment of this Ebola outbreak.
    With the likely arrival of Ebola in Pisa, Italy, the European continent is now at severe risk.

    Italian Health Authorities are DENYING reports about infected workers in Pisa, Italy. They claim it is a HOAX;
    but they are not explaining why an entire hospital in Pisa is now under isolation.

    -------------------------------
    So I guess we'll have to see about that ~

    This is extreme and self explanatory, but even if it came half true it would still be a big one and so like if these guesses were half right we have like two months to stockup on gloves, masks and groceries:

    Probabilities of unchecked infection at this point, based upon a method of travel, times and frequencies of
    airline flights to various cities, also including certain assumed volumes of "mixed maritime" traffic between
    north Africa and southern Europe - the Probability that Ebola will strike is:

    63% in Italy within 8 days (rumored above to already be in pisa)
    44% in Spain within 15 days
    77% in Riyadh/Saudi within 21 days
    40% in Libya within 25 days
    29% in the US within 28 days
    37% in Egypt within 33 days

    By the time we get to 35 days, it can be in 25 countries on 4 continents.

    35 days after that, nearly every place on the globe within 1000 miles of a commercial airport is fair game.

    So they should have named those movies "35 Days" not 28 and "35 Days Later".

    I don't think it will be quite so fast. I'd be amazed (outta my skin!) If it was even close in a worse case scenario, short of driving through the streets actually spraying people with blood.
     
  2. RandomVegan

    RandomVegan Member

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    not liking this much, while HIV is even more deadly (virtually 100% compared to UP TO 90%) at least you can avoid exposure
     
  3. OddApple

    OddApple Member

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    Both are spread by fluids, but there was one instance where determined little monsters did get it to spread on the air in poor lab monkeys. Another reason to be vigilant as we watch for more news about this strain.
     
  4. OddApple

    OddApple Member

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    Here is a blog on the recent outbreak: http://gvaop.wordpress.com/2014/04/22/ebola-time-to-panic/comment-page-1/#comment-16

    And a comment that doesn't seem to match the theme of the blog ("no worries" essentially) that I pasted over as well:


    "While the above article is very well put together in
    layman’s terms, I have a couple of concerns which I am
    afraid may affect the spread of this “novel” strain of evd,
    if it in fact is a novel strain.
    My primary concern is the adopted policy of secrecy by
    the WHO. “Who” do they think they are? How does the
    who simply assert the power to restrict knowledge of
    any kind under the “panic” justification. It only makes
    reasonable people more leery of an organization
    wielding self-grabbed powers it should legally not have.
    Secondly, features of this strain are not fully
    understood or rather, fully known owing to the who’s
    attitude that the name they have taken implies fitness
    or recognition by “the world” and reasonable people
    may have doubts about both the who and un’s ability or
    right to assert powers in the name of a disease and
    outbreak they will not be forthright about.
    If this strain is truly novel, with survivability and
    airborne vector, then any high school student would be
    right in speculating a “New flu” status with probability
    of the virus becoming endemic in more places.
    If that were so, we would all know within 30 days and all
    be at risk within about 6 months.
    There is a LOT more I would like to say, but simply must
    watch while the loose canon, often inept “who”
    exercises powers it should not have and says to the
    world “You’ll know when it hits your town and we take
    over in the name of health, destroying your food
    supplies and quarantining your people. But no need to
    worry, we are the who! Second rate on all fronts by
    American scientific and medical standards, yet allowed
    vast powers.”
    I do not like this, yankee doodle I am!
    Best wishes ~ "

    BUT - As of yesterday 4/26, according to the who, it appears to be slowed down in africa...
     

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