Kandahar
10-25-2004, 02:47 AM
Check out http://www.longbets.org/bets
Their purpose is to generate discussion on various issues concerning the future of the world. It's interesting to read what some of the "experts" (or more accurately, people who have some money to waste on these bets) have to say on the subjects. You can even vote for whether or not you think the prediction will happen.
I've listed some of the more interesting predictions below, followed by my prediction. Please post your opinion on these.
1. By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test. - I say false. Assuming Moore's Law doesn't preemptively run out of steam, this should be within our capabilities by 2015-2020.
2. In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site. - True. So-called "mainstream" news media is on the decline. 2007 seems like a fairly accurate date for when blogs overtake the NYT.
3. By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks. - False. Maybe in the more distant future, but I don't see this as being a realistic prediction for six years from now.
4. The US men's soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series. - False. I'll just leave it at that. :)
5. At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150. - True. Medical technology is increasing the average human lifespan by approximately 7 months every year, and that rate itself is increasing. We'll soon reach the point where the human lifespan increases at a rate of more than one year per year.
6. By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature. - True. The Nobel Prize committee has always insisted on proof for its prizes in physics, and the truth is that there is no evidence for any unified theory other than mathematical beauty (which is not to be discredited). Strings, if they exist, are so tiny that I can't forsee humans being able to detect them by 2020.
7. In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation. - True. Russia, China, and India are all poised to overtake us in the next few years.
8. The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet. - False. If extraterrestrial intelligence has developed enough to adapt to other, more hostile environments, they've also developed enough to avoid detection by curious aliens.
9. The annual average cost between 2003 and Dec 31 2005 of the total retail price (commercial and residential) per Kilowatthour of electricity in the United States will rise as calculated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy in chained (inflation-adjusted) U.S. dollars. - True. While in the long-term the cost of energy has been falling, in the short-term it will rise. The demand is simply increasing at a faster rate than the technology.
10. Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy. - True. Barring a major world war, I think this one is almost a guarantee.
11. As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the US. - True. If there aren't any bombshell news stories in the next two weeks, John Kerry should win the election by a comfortable margin.[/B]
12. By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event. - False. I hope I'm right, although this event is certainly within the realm of possibility.
13. By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system. - False. While there are most likely intelligent civilizations out there, I doubt there are any that are actively trying to contact us.
14. By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States. True. And 2012 is a fairly conservative estimate. I think this will be true as early as 2007 or 2008.
15. By 2024 "artificial" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study. - True. We're already on the verge of creating life. This could happen as early as next year.
16. By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today. - False. I assume that whoever came up with this proposition was anticipating a large-scale war of some sort, which I consider to be less than 50% likely. I think the population will continue to expand as medicine enables us to live longer and longer.
Their purpose is to generate discussion on various issues concerning the future of the world. It's interesting to read what some of the "experts" (or more accurately, people who have some money to waste on these bets) have to say on the subjects. You can even vote for whether or not you think the prediction will happen.
I've listed some of the more interesting predictions below, followed by my prediction. Please post your opinion on these.
1. By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test. - I say false. Assuming Moore's Law doesn't preemptively run out of steam, this should be within our capabilities by 2015-2020.
2. In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site. - True. So-called "mainstream" news media is on the decline. 2007 seems like a fairly accurate date for when blogs overtake the NYT.
3. By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks. - False. Maybe in the more distant future, but I don't see this as being a realistic prediction for six years from now.
4. The US men's soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series. - False. I'll just leave it at that. :)
5. At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150. - True. Medical technology is increasing the average human lifespan by approximately 7 months every year, and that rate itself is increasing. We'll soon reach the point where the human lifespan increases at a rate of more than one year per year.
6. By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature. - True. The Nobel Prize committee has always insisted on proof for its prizes in physics, and the truth is that there is no evidence for any unified theory other than mathematical beauty (which is not to be discredited). Strings, if they exist, are so tiny that I can't forsee humans being able to detect them by 2020.
7. In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation. - True. Russia, China, and India are all poised to overtake us in the next few years.
8. The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet. - False. If extraterrestrial intelligence has developed enough to adapt to other, more hostile environments, they've also developed enough to avoid detection by curious aliens.
9. The annual average cost between 2003 and Dec 31 2005 of the total retail price (commercial and residential) per Kilowatthour of electricity in the United States will rise as calculated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy in chained (inflation-adjusted) U.S. dollars. - True. While in the long-term the cost of energy has been falling, in the short-term it will rise. The demand is simply increasing at a faster rate than the technology.
10. Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy. - True. Barring a major world war, I think this one is almost a guarantee.
11. As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the US. - True. If there aren't any bombshell news stories in the next two weeks, John Kerry should win the election by a comfortable margin.[/B]
12. By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event. - False. I hope I'm right, although this event is certainly within the realm of possibility.
13. By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system. - False. While there are most likely intelligent civilizations out there, I doubt there are any that are actively trying to contact us.
14. By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States. True. And 2012 is a fairly conservative estimate. I think this will be true as early as 2007 or 2008.
15. By 2024 "artificial" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study. - True. We're already on the verge of creating life. This could happen as early as next year.
16. By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today. - False. I assume that whoever came up with this proposition was anticipating a large-scale war of some sort, which I consider to be less than 50% likely. I think the population will continue to expand as medicine enables us to live longer and longer.