My timeline for the next decade

[abbadabba]

I'd appreciate comments. These are mostly just my opinions, but they're based on current scientific and social trends.

<B>2004: </B>
*First verifiable birth of a human clone.

*First hydrogen fuel-cell automobiles developed (in research stage)

*U.S. Courts begin to turn against the RIAA in piracy cases.

*Pervez Musharraf assassinated, John F. Kerry elected president, Iraq insurgency dies down, North Korea on verge of bankruptcy.



<B>2005:</B>

*Huygens probe reveals organic environment on Saturn's moon Titan.

*Divorce rates in the United States reach 60%

*US Supreme Court rules that gay marriage is a constitutional right.

*Conservative elements in several Protestant churches officially split from more tolerant factions.

*Polio becomes the second disease to be completely eradicated from the world.

*Iranian reformists overthrow the hardline government, Yasser Arafat exiled, Pope John Paul II dies.

*Ukraine announces it has thwarted a nuclear attack by the first known example of a nuclear terrorist organization.

*VHS tapes are no longer being produced except for the most popular movies.

*International Space Station completed.



<B>2006:</B>

*Deafness is completely curable for those who can afford cochlear implants.

*A vaccine that is 75% effective against AIDS is developed.

*FDA clears a male birth-control pill for sale.

*North Korea goes bankrupt and begins cutting military spending.

*United States lifts embargo against Cuba.

*Robotic mice are as intelligent as real mice, and can be controlled by humans to find disaster victims.

*There is almost no market for VCRs that don’t include DVD-players.

*GPS units included in almost all new automobiles.



<B>2007:</B>

*Average US life expectancy – 81 years.

*World population – 9 billion and growing.

*Artificial limbs developed for amputees that are as effective as biological limbs.

*Palestine becomes an independent nation, North Korea grudgingly dismantles its nuclear weapons, China surpasses the United States in online population.

*Zyvex completes the first self-replicating nanomachine.



<B>2008:</B>

*Many families begin opting out of household phone lines, preferring individual cell phones.

*Nearly all genetic diseases can be spotted and corrected during the first trimester of pregnancy.

*The worldwide HIV+ population declines.

*Blindness is completely curable for those who can afford corneal implants.

*North Korean government collapses into anarchy, South Korea and China send peacekeeping troops in until a permanent solution can be worked out.

*High-tech computers are as intelligent as dogs.

*New automobiles “see” objects around them and correct problems before accidents happen.

[abbadabba]

<B>2009:</B>

*Artificial limbs surpass biological limbs in every way; they are stronger, more efficient, and less susceptible to damage.

*A 50% effective cure for AIDS is developed.

*Leprosy becomes the third disease completely eradicated.

*The US President lashes out at Saudi Arabia for supporting terrorism.

*Zyvex releases nanobots into the environment that “eat” pollution and replace it with harmless chemicals.





<B>2010:</B>

*Nearly all American couples cohabitate before marriage. Marriage itself is on the decline.

*Many artificial organs are more efficient than their biological counterparts.

*The Balanced Budget Amendment becomes the 28th amendment to the US Constitution.

*AIDS is in remission, as more people are treated or vaccinated.

*While it is illegal to do so, parents may select desirable genetic characteristics for their children during the first trimester.

*Pakistan and India are once again on the brink of nuclear war. The United States is widely seen to side with India, although officially maintaining neutrality.

*Robotic dogs have effectively replaced real dogs in police work and rescue missions.

*Fidel Castro dies, and a reformist takes power who promises free elections.



<B>2011:</B>

*By this time, pro-choice forces will have clearly won the public opinion battle over abortion.

*The oldest person in the world dies in Japan at age 119.

*Malaria and measles eradicated worldwide.

*The “Conservative Party” splits from the Republican Party, in a reaction to the GOP’s drift to the left on social issues.

*Belarus arrests a terrorist cell in possession of a nuclear weapon that they planned to explode in the United States.

*United States and Israel begin pointing missiles toward Saudi Arabia in response to its continuing support of terrorism.

*Congress makes it illegal to view or sell anyone’s genetic code without their permission.

*Invisibility suits are available for those willing to shell out the $1 million necessary.

*The Nobel Physics Prize is awarded to a group of scientists for their work on superstring theory.



<B>2012:</B>

*Most young people view marriage as old-fashioned.

*Suicide is the top cause of death in the United States.

*Most high school and college classes are available online, with only half of students opting to attend in person.

*A Chinese man becomes the first human to replace every organ in his body (except his brain and nerve cord) with artificial organs, making him the world’s first cyborg.

*The Conservative Party polls better than the Democratic Party in the presidential election, but not as well as the Republican Party. In the wake of this, members of both traditional parties begin to question their affiliation.

*Russia has overtaken the United States as the world’s biggest polluter.

*Many blue-collar jobs are starting to be replaced by machines.

*A program reminiscent of AltaVista’s Babelfish is able to effectively translate large blocks of text from one language to another.



<B>2013:</B>

*Americans continue to turn away from religion. Only 60% profess a belief in any higher power.

*Starvation is virtually non-existent worldwide, thanks to nanobots that can grow simple foods from scratch.

*Israel invades and topples Saudi Arabia. China holds its first free elections.

*The fastest computers are as intelligent as chimpanzees.



<B>2014:</B>

*Nearly half of all Americans have replaced at least one biological organ with an artificial organ.

*After losing big in the congressional elections, the Democratic Party ceases to be a formidable power. There is a major realignment, as liberals and libertarians ally themselves with the Republican Party, and conservatives and populists opt for the Conservative Party.

*The nuclear tension between Pakistan and India continues to be one of the largest problems facing the world.

*The European Union officially becomes a single nation, although it remains a loose confederation of states regarding economic policy.

*Nanotubes replace steel as the material of choice in skyscrapers and bridges.

*Most work animals, such as horses and dogs, are deemed useless by the existence of more efficient robotic animals.

[underground04]

israel invades saudi arabia? are you kidding! every country in the middle east would go to war with them!

[abbadabba]

israel invades saudi arabia? are you kidding! every country in the middle east would go to war with them!
Maybe, maybe not. If you look at the speed at which the Middle Eastern nations are developing, Israel is leaving them all in the dust (in terms of rate of economic growth as well as the present economy). No Middle Eastern nation could stand up to Israel even now, let alone in a few years.

[backtothelab]

Here's mine

2005-2014:Who fucking knows?

Really, anything past 2004, or maybe 2005 is a guess. All this 60's futuristic flying car crap is a load of shit. 10 years from now is going to be no better than it is now. Do you honestly think that even half of that will come true, if it already has'nt?

Also, the oldest person in the world is a woman from France, she's 122 years old.

[abbadabba]

Here's mine

2005-2014:Who fucking knows?

Really, anything past 2004, or maybe 2005 is a guess.
That's completely false and a very ignorant way to look at scientific progress. By examining current trends, we can at least make educated assumptions as to where technology will be in the next few years.

All this 60's futuristic flying car crap is a load of shit.
I'm not aware of any scientist who actually expected flying cars. Maybe you should turn off The Jetsons' reruns. Any prediction for flying cars was not grounded in the scientific trends of the time.

10 years from now is going to be no better than it is now. Do you honestly think that even half of that will come true, if it already has'nt?
Absolutely, at least for the scientific predictions. I concede I may be off by a couple years in either direction though. As for the political predictions, while they are based on current trends, I can claim much less certainty since the political world is such a volatile place.

Also, the oldest person in the world is a woman from France, she's 122 years old.

Umm no. The world's oldest person is a woman from the Netherlands who is 114. Her name is Hendrikje Van Andel.

[underground04]

i think your outlook on everything is a best case scenario


heres my time line

-2004-

a major terrorist attack occours in the us a few weeks before the prestidential election

bush is reelected by a slight majority in the wake of the attack

patriot act II passes as well as other laws

the violence against iraqi police decreases somewhat, but increases against us millitary and foreign contractors

-2005-

the draft is reinstated; women and college students have to go

major protests are stopped with violence and leaders are jailed as enemy combatants

most states pass 'doa' laws that prevent gay marriage

the world court blasts policies of the us; bush says they "dont recognise the threat of terrorism

israel finishes walling off the west bank; the un hevily criticizes them but does nothing

iraq continues to deterriorate as there is a popular uprising against the occupation, many police and iraqi national guard turn traitor

us accuses syria of harboring terrorists and helping iraqi rebels

[underground04]

-2006-

anarchists, communists and many young moslem men are jailed for "suspcions of terrorism"

first human clone born in europe

john paul II dies

us sends 50000 conscripts and regular army veterans of iraq to crush the uprising

also sends another 150,000 to prepare to invade syria

a broad coalition forms of everyone from socialists, liberal democrats, moderates to libertarians and conservatives who are "tired of the administration's fiscial irresponsability and disregard for godgiven freedoms"

this group organizes massive protests and court challenges (with help from the aclu) to laws such as patriot acts I & II

this group wins few court cases and john ashcroft says theyre helping terrorists

-2007-

the group is forced underground as they are designated a terrorist organization

i graduate from high school (or not:X)

the russian mafia starts to buy many seats in the russian parliment and even some members of the presidential cabinent

syrian terrorists buy nuclear weapons from north korea; kim jong il uses the revinue to keep his government afloat

north korea kidnaps several leading japanese agircultural experts to help solve its starvation problem

syrian terrorists use their nukes to black mail the us: bush postpones the invasion

the uprising in iraq is crushed; the insurgency still exists but never at its previous levels

the anti-administration group driven into the shadows earlier in the year begins recruting poor and lower-middle class youth in major cities and small towns all across the country

[backtothelab]

Umm, no. She was Jeanne Louise Calment, she was born on February 21, 1875, died on August 4, 1997.

And yeah, people have not only considered the complete inanity that is the flying car, but it has actually been built, known as the skycar (http://www.moller.com/skycar/).
My comment was satire; I was comparing your predictions to what the average 50's and 60's American would belive our present-day society to be like. The Jetsons, if you wish.

[abbadabba]

Umm, no. She was Jeanne Louise Calment, she was born on February 21, 1875, died on August 4, 1997.
Ah, ok. You previously wrote in the present tense so I assumed you meant the oldest living person, as I did when I wrote my timeline.


And yeah, people have not only considered the complete inanity that is the flying car, but it has actually been built, known as the skycar (http://www.moller.com/skycar/).
My comment was satire; I was comparing your predictions to what the average 50's and 60's American would belive our present-day society to be like. The Jetsons, if you wish.
The average American is ignorant, and their predictions are mostly irrelevant. A quick examination of scientific trends (Moore's Law, Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns, etc) will show that my predictions, while slightly on the optimistic side, are definitely within the realm of plausibility for the given time period.

[backtothelab]

The average American is ignorant, and their predictions are mostly irrelevant.
Well there ya go!

Moores law is indeed correct. Although, I belive in both cases they were referring to a significant exponential growth over a period of decades, not just ten years. There are many things you have to put into play though, such as domestic politics, foreign affairs, public opinion and the stock market. These can drasticly sway technological advancement. Now I fully understand Moore's law, so should I assume Ray Kurzweil's theory not only elaborates on moore's idea, but goes further to include said issues(politics, public opinion...)?

[abbadabba]

Well there ya go!

Moores law is indeed correct. Although, I belive in both cases they were referring to a significant exponential growth over a period of decades, not just ten years.
Actually, Moore's Law is uncannily accurate even for short-term predictions. While the doubling time for processing speed varies from 12-24 months depending on the economy among other things, it rarely deviates very far from the theoretical 18-month doubling time.

Now I fully understand Moore's law, so should I assume Ray Kurzweil's theory not only elaborates on moore's idea, but goes further to include said issues(politics, public opinion...)?
No, the political aspect of my timeline is strictly based on my observations of the world, and I put a lot less faith in that than I do in the technological aspect of my timeline which is more statistics-based. Kurzweil's theory is similar to Moore's Law, but basically says that the rate of technological change is itself accelerating (we're making more progress per year in 2004 than we did in 2003). According to Kurzweil's estimates, the rate of change is accelerating so fast that we'll make as much technological progress from 2000-2014 as we did from 1900-2000, and we'll make many orders of magnitude more progress from 2000-2100 than we have from prehistory-2000.

[backtothelab]

I know that, but what I'm saying is that technological advancement is hindered by different aspects of society. The stock market could crash, for example. Or, if the something is very controversial(like cloning), research might go much slower than usual.

[abbadabba]

I know that, but what I'm saying is that technological advancement is hindered by different aspects of society. The stock market could crash, for example. Or, if the something is very controversial(like cloning), research might go much slower than usual.
You're right that a historical "surprise" like a stock market crash or nuclear attack could radically change the world. My timeline for technology is more or less based on current trends in development and assume (perhaps erroneously) that the world won't give us any major surprises in the next ten years.

I think that controversial technologies may be a little hindered by politics, but in general I don't think that politicians will be able to stop or slow them for very long.

[NatureFreak412]

I thought all these predections were very good, thanks.

[Nathan11]

abbadabba, how exactly did you come up with your predictions? They seem a bit scary truthfully. I really hope they aren't near that. The world can NOT come to that.

[Sebbi]

"*The “Conservative Party” splits from the Republican Party, in a reaction to the GOP’s drift to the left on social issues."


Too late. http://www.conservatives.com/

They're the biggest party in England after the Labour Party.

Blessings

Sebbi

[Granola Funk]

Too late. http://www.conservatives.com/

They're the biggest party in England after the Labour Party.

Ummm...that's an entirely different country.

I don't think that we will progress even close to as far as the author of this thread thinks. Look at 1994 and then look at now... the only thing that has seriously changed is the global scene, relating to the "War on Terror." No massive advances. Plus things such as nanotechnology and cyborg body parts have to be approved by the government, and the massive bureaucracy of that giant beast slows things down by years and years. The things that were mentioned are achievable, but not all within 10 years.

[EddieV1984]

Good God NO!!!! I hate conservatives and republicans alike! This future world looks too grim:confused:

[Kandahar]

Ummm...that's an entirely different country.

I don't think that we will progress even close to as far as the author of this thread thinks. Look at 1994 and then look at now... the only thing that has seriously changed is the global scene, relating to the "War on Terror."
Maybe you've forgotten about a little invention from 1994 called the World Wide Web? Other notable achievements: The Human Genome Project, genetic therapy, the rise of China, and the earliest nanobots.


No massive advances. Plus things such as nanotechnology and cyborg body parts have to be approved by the government, and the massive bureaucracy of that giant beast slows things down by years and years. The things that were mentioned are achievable, but not all within 10 years.
The government can't stop technology. It can hinder it, sure, but that's what's already happened. We could have mature nanotechnology now if the government had cooperated more in the 1970s-2000s.

As for the ten year time frame, don't forget that the rate of technological progress is increasing at a runaway pace. We've already made more progress in the 2000s decade than we did in the entire 1990s.

[Granola Funk]

Yeah, the internet is big. But society changes slower than technology.

The Human Genome Project, genetic therapy, the rise of China, and the earliest nanobots.Well, the human genome project was informational, but has not yielded any revolutionary results yet. The Rise of China? What do you mean by that? And nanobots, again, have not yielded anything revolutionary yet.

The government can't stop technology. I know... I said that it could delay it a really long time. (Stem-cell research, cloning, nanotechnology, etc.)

As for the ten year time frame, don't forget that the rate of technological progress is increasing at a runaway pace. We've already made more progress in the 2000s decade than we did in the entire 1990s. I'll accept that, but (as I mentioned above) our society always changes way slower than technology. We've had the internet, albeit in a primitive form, since the 60s, but we didn't start using it seriously until the 90s.

Besides, some of these things are so dangerous to the world that they should not be allowed to flourish (cloning, nanotechnology.)

[menlo1]

I'm surprised Musharref hasn't been assassinated already. There's been numerous attempts.

Not to sound sadistic, but I'm also surprised no one has taken a hit at Bush. Chances are reasonable that someone from the military or a disgruntled 9/11 victim could do such a thing. It could even happen inside a military base where he's always visiting.

Recall the U.S. troop in Iraq who blew up his own commander and a few other people in his group. (the U.S. media covered this story for one day and never mentioned it again)

[Shane99X]

I know... I said that it could delay it a really long time. (Stem-cell research, cloning, nanotechnology, etc.)



Besides, some of these things are so dangerous to the world that they should not be allowed to flourish (cloning, nanotechnology.)Hate to be the one to tell you, but...

The progress of other countries in these fields WILL affect the rest of us. The U.S. government can hinder progress in the states, but not globally.

[Shane99X]

I'll accept that, but (as I mentioned above) our society always changes way slower than technology. We've had the internet, albeit in a primitive form, since the 60s, but we didn't start using it seriously until the 90s.

Computer's in the 60's were the size of rooms.

I can now surf the web on my phone/camera/mp3 player.

Technology has streamlined and sped up more in the last 10 years than in the last 100...